Terpeast

79/72 ashburn. Full sun. Dews have gone up. Setup seems good so far

Getting sunnier, dews in upper 60s. If we get gapped today, it won’t be because of early cloudiness

Basin wide

Steamy outside. Sharp contrast to the last few weeks

Some might dismiss or scoff at this, but I wouldn’t. I have an eye on the QBO possibly turning negative for the winter. The only fly in the ointment is high/rising solar, but I don’t know how much weight that holds.

0.61” from both yesterday and today so far. 1.25” on the month

Both things can be true. We can get 2 warm months and 1 cold month, average warm overall, and still get a productive winter.

Stready rain, almost 0.5”. 61

Good question - cpc doesn’t make that clear in their weekly enso reports. But I found this:

Concur with radar not matching ground truth. Prob extrapolated from other radar sites since lwx is down

Have you seen a recent sst map? and the forecasts? Orange and red everywhere, except for a few small blue spots. Frankly, it tells me everything I need to know about this issue.

But we will all do it anyway. Because… that’s how we roll!

Otoh, I have a working hypothesis that CC will lead to more la nina years and even when we’re in enso neutral or weak ninos, the atmosphere will act more like a nina because of zonal sst gradients between nino 3.4 and the WPAC warm pool keeping the mjo stuck in 4-6, and weakening meridional temp gradients around the equator affecting the hadley cell and pacific jet. Before this flip to nino, I was concerned that we’d find ourselves in a permanent and irreversible la nina because the mid latitude (and WPAC warm pool) ssts have been warming faster than the equatorial pacific.

Got a nice thundershower here.

Technically, we’re not in a strong nino yet. But valid question about whether the typical nino effects apply post 2016.

Got jumped. 5 minute shower. Ridiculous.

0.07”. Playing for scraps

Nice cell forming north of Warrenton and heading for Manassas

Coming down good. Back edge coming fast, though

Mod rain, yellows incoming. I'll definitely take what I can get.

really like the enso orientation here, but global ssts are frighteningly warm all over

I’ll explain that in more detail when I finish the project, but basically detrended the temp time series, then used empirical relationships between actual temps and snowfall to calculate new snowfall totals based on detrended temp data. I’ll also list my assumptions, rationale for using these methods, and any weaknesses each method has, for full transparency’s sake. I’ll be the first to admit that it probably won’t pass the muster of academic peer review, but it’ll hopefully satisfy my (and maybe the forum’s) personal curiousity on what we can expect from future winters.

I don’t think it’ll be that bad either. While 97-98 is likely off the table, 72-73 is still a valid analog and probably will remain so as long as the PDO is negative. If I recall correctly, 72-73 was a snowy winter in the SE with near normal temps in the MA. Should that happen again with storm tracks shifted slightly north, the outcome may be a different result than that winter.

Agree. 1.5-2.0 should be the sweet spot for the MA. Less than that, too weak to fully couple and weak/no STJ. More than that, warmth overwhelms.

Seems with this week’s CPC enso update, the models backed off from a high-end strong/super scenario. Running low-end strong at the peak now. 1.5-1.7 or so.