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Terpeast

Meteorologist
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Everything posted by Terpeast

  1. Terpeast
    And he knows his stuff. When he talks, I pay attention. Doesn’t mean he’s always right, it’s the nature of being a meteorologist.
  2. Terpeast
    Just went out. I could smell it.
  3. Terpeast
    Yeah, and I think one reason this nino has not collapsed (yet) despite lack of wwbs is that there’s a ton of subsurface warmth
  4. Terpeast
    In cpc’s recent update the model anomaly forecasts showed a temporary pause or slight cooling in July, then resume warming up Aug-Oct.
  5. Terpeast
    My mom's house in FXCo is getting hammered now
  6. Terpeast
    Got jumped again. Ashburn. So this is how it’s gonna be…
  7. Terpeast
    Much higher than 6-8k ft. Once you start seeing anvils forming, those towers have already reached the tropopause.
  8. Terpeast
    Yeah, it seemed they carried over the previous AFD
  9. Terpeast
    LWX seems a little late with their morning update. Gun shy about this afternoon?
  10. Terpeast
    I wouldn't be surprised if areas that got no rain yesterday gets it today, and vice versa.
  11. Terpeast
    I think I saw the genesis of the cluster that went through NE MD earlier. Started out as an innocuous cumulus that didn’t really stand out. Only a few minutes later, it was a towerhead. An hour later, huge anvil covering the entire NE quadrant from my POV (ashburn). Blue skies all around it. Sour grapes for getting zip imby aside, it was a really cool progression to see from behind.
  12. Terpeast
    Same
  13. Terpeast
    Looks like we’re gonna get gapped
  14. Terpeast
    Seeing some towerheads building to my NE now. Gray high clouds to my W makes it look like something is brewing, but hard to tell
  15. Terpeast
    90 at KIAD and a few other personal stations around and east of 15
  16. Terpeast
    7.6 C/km is no slouch. Especially now that the cloud deck has already cleared
  17. Terpeast
    87/71, sunny with clouds thinning out and 5 minutes later: 88/72. Juicy
  18. Terpeast
    Sun is back out. 71 dewpoint. Game on!
  19. Terpeast
    Clouds starting to thin out a bit. Dews back up to 70
  20. Terpeast
    Dews momentarily dropped to 66, but faught back up to 68. North of M-D line got watched. Nothing yet down here, but should be soon. Something popping up SW of cumberland
  21. Terpeast
    Drier air starting to mix down. Dews down to 67 now
  22. Terpeast
    Thicker high clouds. 85/70
  23. Terpeast
    84 already, Some cirrus cover rolling in, but dews staying at around 70
  24. Terpeast
    Cirrus clouds are back. I understand why some are having doubts on today. Really tough situation for forecasters. If they portray this as just another summer day with a chance of tstorms and they overperform, they're going to get hell for underplaying it. OTOH they talk up the severe and it underperforms, they'll be seen as the boy who cried wolf... and lives might get lost the next time a severe event actually verifies.
  25. Terpeast
    To me, that means east based is off the table for now. Nino3.4 probably still has some warming to do and pull that forcing a smudge east over the dateline. Then we’ll be in good shape for winter if that pans out.
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