Terpeast

I had us at near to slightly above normal with a torchy Feb, but less snowy overall. Still busted pretty badly, but there was never an expectation of even a near normal winter in terms of snowfall. Next year, on the other hand...

Remarkably consistent since 2016. At some point, that pattern has gotta break. Like 40/70 said, something's gotta give.

How would you adjust past analogs toward today's climate? Some options come to top of mind: - brute force of adjusting temps up by a couple degrees across the board (oversimplistic, but can be complicated by the fact that doing so would eliminate 32-33 degree snowstorms we had in the past, esp in the MA) - adjusting storm tracks northward. Example: 72-73 had that big storm and much above normal snowfall across the SE US, but virtually nothing from DC to NYC. What if a 72-73 happened today? Would that storm have traversed further north and resulted in a DC-NYC hit? - match every winter from 2000 to today with the best pre-1980 analog, and compare the forcing (location and intensity), and note the changes as a result of a warmer state?

Had you hid the years so I don’t see 72-73 or 97-98, I’d take those maps and run to the bank!

Pretty sure its because those maps don’t have the resolution to convey such limited areas like lake effect snow belts.

Hit 70 here too

I want to! But I’d prefer a solution that’s… uh… less messy.

Anyone know what I can use as a good squirrel repellent for my deck plants? Those little bastards keep pulling them out or tipping my pots over. I tried sprinkling ground pepper in and around the plants, but it seems the rain washed that away.

65-66 had a neutral pdo leading into that winter so I didn’t mention it. It produced a prolific EC blizzard though

This has never happened at these pdo levels. Closest is 72-73 when the pdo fell to -2 before that nino developed. It rose to neutral/weak negative by winter

This is crazy

We’ll have to see how that plays out in a PDO that is currently negative 3! by comparison, pdo was moderate-strong positive in 1997, and neutral-weak negative in 1982

44 for the low in ashburn, didn’t get into the 30s like MD

I think we can call 97-98 an outlier at this point. I’m skeptical of us getting to a super nino. I like your blend, though… a 1.5 nino3.4 peak makes logical sense unless the -pdo flips on a dime (unlikely).

Snowshoe web cam whiteout conditions with that heavy band streaming right in

I totaled around 3” imby and the dot closest to me is that 3.04” in Leesburg. Pretty on target. Backyard garden is doing well.

Makes sense. I don’t see it getting stronger than high-end moderate or low-end strong at its peak.

Could it be that those greenland blocks were positioned too far S/W that ridging occurs over the east coast? What if the blocks were more central or east based?

Despite light radar returns here, it’s still raining moderately and hanging in tight. Not the first time.

Nearest PWS says 1” so far today. Ashburn

Now 2” in ashburn

Yeah if this was an extended nina, but now that it's finally losing grip on the mid-lat pattern, we're seeing some changes. This soaker is pretty nino-ish as others have said. 1.18" so far in Ashburn

Deck furniture cover was drenched overnight. Must have been an isolated cell over me. Ashburn

36 for the low, no frost. Close call for my new garden. Next time I’ll wait until may to plant

I just moved back last summer, and this is the first I’ve seen something like this. If it’s been much longer than that, then the la nina must be losing its grip on the mid lat pattern