Terpeast
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Everything posted by Terpeast
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I think we can call 97-98 an outlier at this point. I’m skeptical of us getting to a super nino. I like your blend, though… a 1.5 nino3.4 peak makes logical sense unless the -pdo flips on a dime (unlikely).
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Snowshoe web cam whiteout conditions with that heavy band streaming right in
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I totaled around 3” imby and the dot closest to me is that 3.04” in Leesburg. Pretty on target. Backyard garden is doing well.
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Makes sense. I don’t see it getting stronger than high-end moderate or low-end strong at its peak.
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Could it be that those greenland blocks were positioned too far S/W that ridging occurs over the east coast? What if the blocks were more central or east based?
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Despite light radar returns here, it’s still raining moderately and hanging in tight. Not the first time.
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Nearest PWS says 1” so far today. Ashburn
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Now 2” in ashburn
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Yeah if this was an extended nina, but now that it's finally losing grip on the mid-lat pattern, we're seeing some changes. This soaker is pretty nino-ish as others have said. 1.18" so far in Ashburn
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Deck furniture cover was drenched overnight. Must have been an isolated cell over me. Ashburn
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36 for the low, no frost. Close call for my new garden. Next time I’ll wait until may to plant
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I just moved back last summer, and this is the first I’ve seen something like this. If it’s been much longer than that, then the la nina must be losing its grip on the mid lat pattern
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About time. We could never get a +pna wave to stick long enough for even one legit threat. Now, this bodes well for next season.
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0.9” ashburn
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2023 Mid-Atlantic Severe Wx Thread (General Discussion)
Terpeast replied to Kmlwx's topic in Mid Atlantic
Gusty and pouring. Think I got 2 cells to train right over me -
Anyone hit 90 for the high today? Got up to 89 in ashburn
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Makes sense. The record strength -pdo will surely put the brakes on nino development that puts a super event at an almost zero chance of happening. If we want a snowy winter, we better hope that the developing nino gets strong enough to pull the pdo towards neutral-ish so that the mid-lat atmosphere begins to couple with the nino before winter starts. Moderate will do it. Weak won’t cut it.
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Got a frosty car-topper. Did I plant my new garden too early?
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Got almost nothing here in Ashburn. Ridiculous
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We could use the rain. About to start a vegetable garden. Ground is dusty bone dry
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It’s nice out, but the pollen has been killing me
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Hit 88 for the high today. Ashburn
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Looks like subsurface has been cooling over the past few weeks. +4 maybe +5 now down to a max of +4 at 175W centered on April 3. Yours is more up to date, and you have it down to +3.25. And it also looks more west-based this time than previous super ninos, at least under the surface. We'll see how that propagates...
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Were we forecasted to hit 80 today? This morning I was expecting to wake up to a low in the 40s, but it was 61 at 7 am!
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So you're thinking that after this winter, we'll see more of an east-based -NAO with a trough over central Canada/CONUS?
