Terpeast

Maybe with a stronger 50/50 we get more confluence. But if the wave ejects from the W too strong/amped, it can’t trend S

Ok so not THAT different. Primary into OH, then maybe redevelop somewhere off the coast.

Huge differences still even at 120 hr lead times. One would think they’d start coming into better agreement by now.

Yeah, I wfh and so does my wife. We could have moved to tahoe or buffalo. But we chose here because our daughter gets to see my mom once a week and we both have friends in the area. Too important to pass up just to live in an area with more snow, which we could always visit on a chase btw.

Doubt it. Maybe 60% of the previous normal will be the new normal. That’s what my trend graph was pointing towards. ~10 DCA ~14 BWI & IAD With a KU once every 6-8 years. Or something like that.

Orientation of the block is better, too.

Normal 850 temps are 0 in mid-march for DCA, as opposed to about -4 in Jan. So they need to be below normal to support snow as long as the BL is saturated and/or isothermal

Well maybe that big 50/50 will stick and manage to cool those waters a good bit

@psuhoffman I’m not even sure its solely the pacific anymore like I thought it was back in Dec-Jan. Someone raised a good hypothesis earlier in this thread - what if [X factor] is responsible for amping waves out of the W too much too soon, instead of digging or sliding to the S of us? It makes sense if we consider the warmer gulf waters + carribean high supplying warm moist air to any wave that rolls over the rockies. So one of the two things has to happen - laws of physics - a) move further N/W across the baroclinic boundary that was/is being pushed north, or b) amplifies into a huge monster which isn’t good for us either because we don’t want an early phaser for a MA snow. What would it take for a third thing to happen? C) hold a ridge over the west, cool the Caribbean waters a tad, and get something to slide S of us.

I’d say wait till the ens but I have a feeling they will move towards the op esp since op gfs seems to have latched onto a new idea

18z gefs seem to be weakening the epo ridge while intensifying ao/nao. Is there an analog for that?

Could be that the models are underestimating the block and or overinitializing current conditions with the old pattern still in place.

Ops seem to want to slow the vorts down and amp them, while many ensemble members kick them out faster and less amped.

Both 12z op runs of the globals didn’t turn out good scenarios today. Hope this isn’t a sign of a trend.

Sleet mixed in with rain. Pellets on deck. Ashburn, 40

Love it

Obviously an op run without ensemble support is less credible than one with support. But it is still very much one of the possibilities that we cannot rule out. If it holds back and amps too much, this will be a miss for us.

Let’s hope the ens are more correct and the op is wrong

Similar to 0z gefs

Yeah, that was just one of the many possibilities on the table. Something that could not be said all winter.

Gefs clearly east with the s/w kick at 144

Maybe noise, but gefs trended slightly east with the vort at 120

You know it's getting real when Wes pops in. Good to see you in here.

2 ft area wide. But the usual disclaimers keep expectations in check yada yada lol