Terpeast

Yeah and that trough is still dumping into the west coast. Let’s just hit the reset button and get it done with.

See you in the severe wx tracking threads soon-ish.

Fool me once…

This winter was the worst I’ve ever seen in my life, it just refused to snow as if a cruel joke was being played on us. But I am pretty confident that we won’t get back to back shutouts. It can’t get any worse than this. And it almost certainly won’t be this bad next winter.

Idk, there are always exceptions and 2019 was a weak nino that failed to couple. I haven’t really dug into this and not sure I want to bother.

Not surprising. Some ninos just don’t play out well. Post-nino neutral winters have been good for us, afaik, while post-nina neutrals have been awful.

Amazing how the W trough just keeps pinwheeling out there. Tahoe is going to get buried alive.

I don’t know. Depends on strength and pdo Better than this winter? Probably

Check the cpc enso update weekly writeup. Long term pac sst map looks basin wide

That’s a 3-incher of a qpf bomb. Weenie in me says that’s a preview of what’s to come in the next nino now that the nina is all but dead. Question is, will we get the cold air next time around? (next winter, I mean)

Stopped a while ago, but just now started up again.

Light moderate snow, ashburn. 37. Not sticking. Decent snow TV. Did a jebwalk

And NOW it just started. A few flakes here and there.

Glad you guys are seeing snow now! Still waiting for it here.

Returns seem to be getting heavier as they go east of the mountains. Getting closer to here. Nothing yet…

Just cloudy in ashburn. 37

Map says it all. Most cold air concentrated in siberia with a secondary lobe of cold centered over CA. That’s what I was just telling psu a few minutes ago. Let’s see if a moderate nino can flip this. Btw, you saved me from spending a few hours writing that post mortem just with that map.

Ok in your feb 2010 map, most of the cold was in siberia but that secondary lobe of cold was right where we wanted it for it to work for us. This year? The secondary lobe was centered in CA. It snowed all the way down to where it rarely snows, and I’m not talking about climo at 8,000 ft which is irrelevant for us. What’s relevant is where that cold air predominantly goes. This is why I remain optimistic that we will still get big snow years, even while we lose the smaller events in most other years.

If I remember correctly, siberia had record cold through most of the winter. Cold air is a finite source, especially now, and it seems most of it just went to the other side. And maybe a smaller lobe or two dumped into the west. Could be just one of those years. Maybe next time we get the cold air dumped on our side.

I hope it’s nothing like last year when storms just up and vanish right on our doorsteps

Yep, onto severe wx tracking.

Outside of a fluke 1% chance, it’s over. I’ll do a post-mortem writeup in my winter outlook thread soon.

Brief shower and then it dried out. Had this been snow, it may only have amounted to a car topper.

Do you still have that graphic? And on what time period was it based? My question is whether the polar jet shifted north because of the string of ninas, or because of [something else that shall not be named]. Or both.

Light rain in ashburn, 0 mangled flakes. 39