Terpeast

Trending slower over past several runs

LWX not biting yet. Maybe a good thing

I was thinking that this is a qpf bomb, as currently depicted on this run. Doesn’t necessarily translate into bigger snows, if any. Worth watching.

Fight club rule. We don’t talk about starting any threads. Especially if there is a trackable event.

Not quite. Challenged, yes. But not decimated. No wind reversal

Of those non-hits, how many were too warm and all rain? And how many were complete whiffs/non storms?

Well, after I’ve already made weekend plans with the family, the models start showing some interesting things…

From LWX. Bold is my emphasis . Further complicating this forecast is the cold air arriving on the back end of this system with the trough. The GFS and some of its ensembles bring that cold air in and still have some QPF around, thus producing some snow on the back side of the system. Do think the Canadian/European solution is a bit more realistic though, with drier air on the back side dampening precipitation chances. Certainly something worth monitoring in the coming days to see if a trend develops.

Yeah I get that. My comment was more of a reflection of the forum’s overall mood than the models itself, though. Sometimes I try to make light of the situation because… it’s just weather.

Don’t take offense, I’ve been skipping over your posts without reading them… but for this once, you actually said something pretty insightful. Next time we’re staring down a MECS/HECS, we won’t believe it until halfway through the event and we haven’t dry slotted or mixed.

I’ll take a BN summer if we get interesting severe. Not like last year

I’m about mostly checked out, but it’s a shame that this isn’t 400 miles further west. Where’s the west trend when we needed it?

Low of 12

Its… cold.

Haven’t seen anything. Ashburn, 29

Ens showing a 1-2 day window of N/BN temps day 8-10, otherwise torch through and through

This year the coldest temps just went to the other side towards siberia. Maybe one of those winters, it will come down our side through canada.

Ya I remember that surprise April snow, too. Almost 6 months of winter. Just incredible. And the February snows were nice frigid and powdery. IAD got down to -10 one morning that month.

I feel real fortunate to have experienced that winter as a teenage kid. That was just awesome. Yes I was here for 2009 and the first 2010 storm, but as great as they were, it didn’t feel quite the same as 1996.

Some interesting looks on the op runs both gfs and euro towards mid-feb. I know I know, don’t look at op runs past 7 days… but it may be that this warm up may only be temporary and we can sneak in a chance or two before the 20th

Steering the discussion back on topic… To be fair, I would take this chance every time. 10/10

Meanwhile, look at lake tahoe

Wife and I enjoyed it. Milked it as much as we could before it melted

Wow, oceans gonna boil in both sides and up top. Looking at this map feels like running the a/c all year round