Terpeast

36-37 rain

I don’t expect we will ever return to the 20” avg. After doing that trend graph I did a month or so ago, I think that’s the writing on the wall. We may hold a 10” median / 15” mean, but certainly not a return to 20” in either averaging method. Still expect some big winters ahead or at least some years with a HECS thrown in, though. Best case scenario is we get a heater that resembles a warmer version of the 1960s with blocking. Less snow overall, but maybe some juiced up storms that drop 24” that would otherwise have produced 12” in a colder climate.

70s and humid. what about after, though?

Not believing the NAM depiction of snow accums east of blue ridge. Artifact of low resolution… soundings above freezing up to 750-700mb

And I’m okay with that.

Just be sure not to pass gas while yelling, lest that negates your efforts.

Worst of both el nino and la nina. This may be why post-nina neutral winters are the worst for us in snowfall. As the nina decays, the atmosphere starts acting more like a nino out west but the SER stays.

Perfect track rainstorm

Can relate with that. My little girl is the outdoorsy type, and she goes stir crazy if we’re cooped up inside for too long. Funnily enough she doesn’t mind the cold as long as we dress her warmly enough.

No jacket needed today.

So my weekend plans will still be intact... As for this winter, we're down 35-3 late in the third quarter. It's 3rd and long against a stout defense (warm air). Looking like yet another punt... maybe we get the ball back last week of February with about 5-7 minutes left in the game.

Just a gut feeling… i don’t think this h5 low closes and tracks as far south as its showing on the models. Maybe I’ve seen too many last minute north trends in my lifetime. *Not saying we get a result that favors us in the end (in case I get weenie tagged lol)

Based on LWX’s AFD this morning, I think they disagree. Personally, I have no idea

LWX says guidance might swing today because s/w entering better sampled zones now. Won’t be surprised if we see something very different later today or tonight

Looking more like a Jan 98 rainstorm for i-95 unfortunately

Slower trend works against us because it gives cold air time to leave/modify

Trending slower over past several runs

LWX not biting yet. Maybe a good thing

I was thinking that this is a qpf bomb, as currently depicted on this run. Doesn’t necessarily translate into bigger snows, if any. Worth watching.

Fight club rule. We don’t talk about starting any threads. Especially if there is a trackable event.

Not quite. Challenged, yes. But not decimated. No wind reversal

Of those non-hits, how many were too warm and all rain? And how many were complete whiffs/non storms?

Well, after I’ve already made weekend plans with the family, the models start showing some interesting things…

From LWX. Bold is my emphasis . Further complicating this forecast is the cold air arriving on the back end of this system with the trough. The GFS and some of its ensembles bring that cold air in and still have some QPF around, thus producing some snow on the back side of the system. Do think the Canadian/European solution is a bit more realistic though, with drier air on the back side dampening precipitation chances. Certainly something worth monitoring in the coming days to see if a trend develops.

Yeah I get that. My comment was more of a reflection of the forum’s overall mood than the models itself, though. Sometimes I try to make light of the situation because… it’s just weather.