Terpeast

Narrator: it’ll go in hibernation for the summer and return in time for next winter.

Any accumulating snow (which is a tall order as it is now) appears to fall during the overnight hours Wed morning. Thinking it’s not worth staying up late or getting up early for this.

He probably would have gone another season or two before getting another, if not more devastating injury. He refused to slide at the end of the play whenever he scrambled. One of those days, one of those speedy safeties would have homed in on him like a heat seeking missile… boom. Hospital.

It will. Maybe this week. Maybe next year. But certainly within a couple of years.

Bring it on. Last summer was boring with upper 80s, a marine layer east of the blue ridge, and severe tstorms dying out right on our doorsteps.

This will be the 5th time I see a rain/sleet mix at the onset this winter. Pass.

We’ll definitely be back for the summer and fall. I can only imagine what it’s like with peak foliage

Yep, and we will see another KU HECS here. But they won’t be every 3-7 years like from ‘79 through ‘16 anymore. Maybe more like once a decade. Twice if lucky.

I have a remote job. Would live there in a heartbeat If you bought a house there and then airbnb’ed it, you’d make a killing

Even the west side of the 81 corridor was bare and 50 degrees today. On the drive to and back from deep creek this weekend, there was a lot more snow OTG and colder west of cumberland. Once I got east of cumberland, the snow seemed to vanish. Btw what’s wrong with deep creek? Loved it. I wanna go back

May be the case. Looks like a lot more trips to deep creek, colorado, and if I’m really itching for a 36” blizzard, Lake Tahoe.

Yes it’s not even Feb yet, and I’m already punting to next winter. Might as well get the shutout year out of the way, because I’m 90% certain we won’t have back-to-back shutout seasons. Let’s just hope we don’t get an east-based +3 nino… otherwise all bets are off

It was low 50s all the way up to cumberland while I drove back

Just got back home and checked the model suite… looks to me that they’re becoming masters at pulling houdini acts from incoming snowstorms in the east coast. When they’re doing their best not to snow inside 5 days, maybe it’s time to hang it up this winter. The december cutter set the tone from the beginning. Luckily, we have the mountains within a 2-3 hour drive that get some upslope even in the worst pattern. Got my fix there, and I’m good until next year. If you need yours, it’s only a few hours away. Not that complicated. Next time I go, I want to stay a week and airbnb it. Or vbro.

Fun day with the kiddo out there. Wife loved it also. Nice and powdery as you can see

It’s awesome up here at deep creek. What a winter wonderland, my weenie soul needed this. my 2 year old loves the snow, too… kept saying “my snowman!” About 6” on the ground, maybe a little more. 26-27 F Will share pics later

Not too much though, or they’ll cut like all the others.

My “hopium” take is that the models may not be showing this now, but as a wave (in actual reality, not modeled reality) approaches the east coast with all those record warm waters, it’ll get more amped and draw the cold air in on the backwside. Again, a dose of hopium. Maybe just because I’m in a good mood as we’re about to head to the mountains soon.

Yeah and I also noticed that a neutral that comes after a nina tend to be the worst seasons. Here’s hoping that we’re getting it out of the way this year, and that the fading nina is just a lagging indicator than a leading one.

I thought this thread would make it to 50 pages without going off the rails with insanity psychobabble.

Let’s see, 2nd chart showing a flatter -epo ridge with -pna trough dumping west, a SER, and a cutter track (neut H anomalies SW to NE across central US through great lakes). Warm H anomalies over most of Europe. Looks familiar! We’ve been saying that the atmosphere isn’t really acting like a nina, but more like a nino (but not really). Appears to me that this is an enso neutral winter as a leading indicator ahead of a dying nina!

Still parsing the rain/snow line on Op runs 200+ hours out, aren’t we?

Ok so maybe that’s not it. Maybe it’s down to the simplest answer staring right at us. As the arctic warms faster than the rest of the planet, the finite source of cold air becomes… even more finite. However, as the N-S temperature gradient becomes smaller, we still get blocking, maybe even moreso than before. Sometimes that helps us produce epic years like 09-10. Other times, because we have a smaller and more finite source of cold air, it hurts us by linking with the SER. Maybe that’s why Chuck has been rooting for a +nao lately, just to blunt that SER down.

@psuhoffman I wanted to continue our discussion after your long post about the 1960s, but my brain is starting to check out from all this. But just one thing. With the common denominator in the 60s not being enso or mjo or the pacific, but persistent negative height anomalies in the west/central atlantic, I would think that is almost the mirror opposite of the SER/WAR we have now. I’m curious about low ACE <> WAR correlation, and whether the 60s was a higher than average hurricane activity decade. Would be interesting to look into ACE for that period while you’re at it. And if the upcoming nino also suppresses hurricane activity this year, and there IS a correlation with the WAR, I’m not sure how it’s going to help us next year either. Too strong of a nino, or too east based, it’ll probably lead to an above normal likelihood of another 97-98.