Terpeast

And for that, we have to kill the SER/WAR. As long as that is there, it’s very hard to lock in a 50/50

Really informative, thanks for putting this together. Busy day at work today, but if I could add some of my thoughts to this, I’ll do it in the other thread. Thanks again.

Okay this is interesting because the 1960s were insane - why? Was that a window when the pac temporarily become more favorable combined with a -nao? Or did the 1960s do well DESPITE a hostile pac? Was there some other factor involved other than the nao?

Go by NWS. D0-1: short range D2-3: med range D3-5: long range D5+: fantasy range

Must have looked at the runs that didn’t show this. I didn’t see. So I guess we just look up to D7 and disregard anything past that.

Other than h5 maps, I check mslp in the ensemble means. There’s a faint signal of lower pressure to the SE with high pressure to the NW. I have not seen a signal like this all winter. Not even for the december cutter or the recent Jan rainstorms. First I’ve seen this. Window feb 3-7. Usual disclaimer - just one run, could change, blah blah, just something to keep an eye on other than h5 and 850s

From LWX: .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... From Friday through the weekend and into early next week, the hemispheric pattern does not appreciably change. More specifically, this features an upper ridge over the eastern Pacific, another high near the Bahamas, and a deep upper low to the north of Hudson Bay. Split flow is evident in the guidance which carry waves across the western U.S. as well as within the cyclonic longwave flow regime over the central/eastern U.S. At this juncture, there is little to no interactions with these streams which is often the recipe for a more pronounced winter weather threat. You can tell that LWX is a little baffled at how this winter is going, huh?

I’m not even looking at op runs beyond 7 days. Ensembles only. And GEFS hasn’t changed much at all from run to run.

Just saw a mosquito flying outside. At this rate, we're going to have to change the state bird to that before summer.

Yeah, with a better pac and colder source region, it’s not a torchy look. But storms probably still cut.

LR ens showing the SER flexing again at end of range. Again.

Now I get why 18z is called happy hour

I’ll hold you to it. You can’t go wrong with sending me a belgian dubbel or better yet, a quadrupel. I’m a reasonable man - I accept mail deliveries.

Wow so cool. My mom got around 10” give or take in Vienna and from the photos she sent me, it looked like a very cold storm. Appeared to be windy, too. I would have never guessed there would have been temp issues here. Did anyone verify blizzard criteria then?

Nice! Web cam looks good now too. Still snowing lightly even if radar doesn’t show it.

And that one snuck up on us did it? I wasn’t here so I didn’t track. How long in advance did the models sniff this out?

Better confidence we’ll see snow on the ground at Deep Creek when we go on Friday. Might even see clipper-induced flurries on Saturday like the GFS is showing.

No, that's not it. I have a confession to make... I purchased sleds for myself and my daughter a few weeks before Christmas. (and a shovel) THAT is the reason for the debacle of this winter. Sorry not sorry if "sorry" doesn't cut it. Oh well.

Booked. Driving up on friday afternoon

It probably won’t verify verbatim anyway

Good enough for us if that pans out. Wife is from Vietnam and only has seen snow once when we went trekking in Nepal, and my daughter is only 2. Just seeing snow on the ground will be an experience for both of them. We’ll take some nice photo shots if we can.

Planning to head up there next weekend. Looks like some upslope is coming after both storms. Hoping that holds

Still got any snow cover?

For now that appears to be a clipper swinging by on the 28th. I’m about to pull the trigger on a trip to Deep Creek next weekend. Looks like some upslope there late week.

Big shift because the aleutian ridge jumped way east, becoming a poleward alaskan ridge. Just one run for now, so we shall see if this becomes a real trend.