Terpeast

Looks like the Euro and GFS are about to switch places. We all know how that plays out in the end.

Yeah, if it starts to trend colder at least on the onset and it appears we get a front end thump, I'm staying put. But if it basically shows all rain east of the blue ridge, I'm chasing. Just gotta sell the wife on this...

By Tuesday-ish, I'll make a decision whether to chase this in Deep Creek/Canaan (and take my family & our sleds with me)... or stay home.

Has this actually been trending cooler each run?

Damn, that’s kinda heartbreaking. If it were me, I’d have a lot more angst about this too. My wife was just happy to see a brief squall pass through, and my little girl is not even 2 years old yet. For her, ignorance is bliss. I just gotta be careful not to talk too much about snow in our house.

Moving to Watertown or Montreal wouldn't have helped in this storm. I mean, you gotta laugh.

Bob chill already responded and I don’t have much to add to that. I was saying that even before this storm showed up on the models I was most concerned about the lack of cold air to begin with. I also said a couple days ago that there is only a 24-36 hour window for a storm to happen while the (marginal) cold air is in place to keep it snow. That window I was talking about is with regards to the front runner pieces phasing to form a 50/50 low, and they just miss each other even on the euro. So no, I don’t trust the models beyond 5 days, but I do trust the temperature anomaly maps and the trends.

Oh well. Not enough cold air, as that was the issue all along. Next time it’s D5 or shorter only for tracking. Nothing performs well beyond that. Best we can hope at this point is for something to sneak up on us like last year’s January storm.

One takeaway of mine is that if we’re not going to get a solid 50/50 low, we should probably root for a weaker wave that slides under us to retain the little cold air we have. Too strong, and it pumps too much warm air up from the south.

At least with a stronger ridge up top over canada it’s hard to imagine this will cut. But stranger things have happened.

Gefs noticeably weaker at 192

For now it seems like a northern MD special. Hope it trends a little colder over my roof and gives me an inch or more. Not invested in that one, but a nice bonus if it happens.

Definitely a lot of waffling up top with the gfs. Nice to see the canadian back on board. Biggest takeaway is the models definitely don’t have a handle on this at all yet. Couple more days we’ll have a better idea I’m sure.

If the Op and ens go in opposite directions, which one usually caves to the other? (genuine question - I’m not up to date on models/ens skill performance)

NAM shows nothing for 1/9

If this lines up with the MJO 8-1 as depicted for this time frame, we could probably get another wave with the right pieces in place, including cold air. Maybe the first week of February.

Just saw some dark clouds pass by to the north of me half an hour ago. Partly cloudy skies to the west, and breezy.

Worth noting zero members showing a cutter.

Damn, this is one of the best posts I've seen here in months! Kudos. I'm no expert on models, and know almost nothing about their skill, but this seems like a great way to track without getting burned too much. So to recap the 12z runs... - ensemble mean goes south of us - Op GFS cuts with 50s and rain - Op Euro dumps 2 ft over NC & S central VA, cold solidly in the 20s - Canadian? Who cares until we get under 7 days

For that December cutter, the GFS held onto the S/E solutions and was the last to cave. This time, it's the other way around. Euro is still S/E while CMC and GFS went cutter (at least the Op runs).

Yeah, and some good ones just sneak right up on us at the last possible minute. Like last year. And (not directed at you - but in general) no need to panic, but no need to get super invested at this point. We still have a trackable event next week, and that's all we can say for now.

Chase to NC/GA mountains?

At least it’s the GFS. If this were the Euro, it’s lights out.

Even until game time.

Both LWX and Mt Holly has eyes on the event next week with the usual uncertainty disclaimers.