Terpeast
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Everything posted by Terpeast
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Just saw some dark clouds pass by to the north of me half an hour ago. Partly cloudy skies to the west, and breezy.
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Worth noting zero members showing a cutter.
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Damn, this is one of the best posts I've seen here in months! Kudos. I'm no expert on models, and know almost nothing about their skill, but this seems like a great way to track without getting burned too much. So to recap the 12z runs... - ensemble mean goes south of us - Op GFS cuts with 50s and rain - Op Euro dumps 2 ft over NC & S central VA, cold solidly in the 20s - Canadian? Who cares until we get under 7 days
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For that December cutter, the GFS held onto the S/E solutions and was the last to cave. This time, it's the other way around. Euro is still S/E while CMC and GFS went cutter (at least the Op runs).
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Yeah, and some good ones just sneak right up on us at the last possible minute. Like last year. And (not directed at you - but in general) no need to panic, but no need to get super invested at this point. We still have a trackable event next week, and that's all we can say for now.
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Chase to NC/GA mountains?
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At least it’s the GFS. If this were the Euro, it’s lights out.
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Even until game time.
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Both LWX and Mt Holly has eyes on the event next week with the usual uncertainty disclaimers.
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Fun prediction: both Euro and Gfs lose the storm tomorrow.. only to bring it back somewhere along the EC at day 6-7. Forum’s servers have a meltdown meanwhile.
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Getting burned a lot does strange things to us.
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Lets worry about those details at <D4, not D10… Just having a threat as depicted is interesting though.
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Still 10 days out, but I’m glad the Euro is showing a trackable threat… and not just the GFS being on its own.
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Ultra LR ensembles wash out individual waves. And also could be dead wrong about the longwave pattern when it's time to verify. I'm not saying we get cold in that timeframe, just supporting the above reason why they can't be trusted too much.
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As long as the Euro still has it, this is an extremely small window to score something. Maybe a 24-36 hour window to get all the pieces in the right places. In a fast flow like this under a nina base state, this is a little harder to do than getting 2 torpedoes on target like Luke did against the death star.
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My car thermometer usually has a warm bias, but it read 48 this morning. IAD went down to 55, and a local weather station nearest me in Ashburn said 54.
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Despite a trough in the west, that’s actually a colder look I’ve seen in a while. Worth noting that trough entering the aleutians with a poleward alaskan ridge beginning to pop. Previous runs were mostly zonal flow right from the pacific.
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Barely off the high today. Sitting at 63.
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66 for the high in Ashburn. If we can avoid hitting 70 tomorrow, that’s a win.
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CMC copied the Euro for Jan 9. Holding back precip until the (marginal) cold air leaves. Ergo, CMC/Euro must be correct I see posts about the day 11 threat, but... it's day 11. Give it another week and see if it still shows a trackable threat.
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It’s really close. At DCA or in the city center, probably white rain as light precip, or wet non-sticking snow under heaviest rates. N&W of the cities probably snow.
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If the model with the least snow has at least an inch for us, then I’ll start to get more invested in this upcoming window.
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I’ve been wondering this but did not want to say anything until now. Maybe unscientific conjecture… but if mid-latitude SSTs warm faster than tropical SSTs, are we going to be in a permanent “La Nina” background state, even as tropical SSTs are just as warm as historical neutral or even El Ninos from way in the past? Scary thought.
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I think that’s for every individual to decide for themselves…
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A suppressed OTS look is what we want to see at range. I think it trends closer to the coast over time. My bigger concern is the airmass.
