Terpeast

Remember, the most likely outcome is rain then fropa. Until at least 3 models show something different for 3 consecutive runs, then maybe...

worth noting major slp differences in SE canada from run to run

Yeah, strange. I saw that, and decided it was kooky enough of a solution to ignore.

I think it’s picking up the same vort lobe as euro and cmc, but while these two phase under us, in the gfs they just miss each other and the secondary low goes OTS. Really fluky solutions all around just when we thought they locked into an ordinary fropa. Don’t get excited though. The simplest answer will most often turn out to be correct. Which in this case is fropa and nothing else.

Well, this comes one day after I said I'll be content with 3" that covers the grass. But not like THIS!

Since TT only goes out to 90h so maybe someone else can post the h5 maps beyond that. Like brooklyn said, stronger vort coming in behind and then under the main ULL… Secondary sfc low forming along the main front. I still think a run of the mill fropa is the most likely solution though.

Ok. That’s your bar. I decided that mine would be one snowfall that at minimum covers the grass. Anything on top of that would be a bonus to me.

Saw flurries on my way into Vienna. Probably that’s all we’re going to see for this “threat”

Decided to really drill down into the stats/trends of IAD snowfall. I'm sure it's nothing new, but the median really drives home the point that we no longer "average" 20 inches a season. It's more like 14-15 now, and that's with the big snow years thrown in. Take those away, we're at more like 8-12" median... and the downtrend is so striking compared to the "average" skewed by the occasional big dog. And this year we may not even get to the median! Excuse the ugly charts, but this shows the average 20" snowfall year is increasingly out of reach. And we're talking IAD numbers. I haven't even bothered to look at DCA. *Source: https://www.weather.gov/media/lwx/climate/iadsnow.pdf

Yep, and they need it. Badly.

Feel free to call bullshit, but I mean it. Of course I’d love to get 20-40” but the stats and trends don’t lie. The 20” average is likely outdated, and I’ve been adjusting my expectations accordingly.

All I’m saying is if we get 0 this year, how likely is it we will get 0 again next year? Maybe there’s a first for everything. Maybe your expectations are different, but I’d be content with 3”, let alone 7”

Good to know. I haven’t been looking at models since my last year here (2010) and I don’t remember the GFS being so bad with individual storms even inside 48-72h. It’s like they gone backwards to the 1980s modeling performance. At least the LR ensemble performance is somewhat credible.

EPS shows more red. And can we really trust the GFS? To add to my last post, if we do get zero’ed out this winter, at least we then know that there’s nowhere to go but up the following winter.

Frost is back. At least I don’t have to go anywhere, so I don’t have to scrape the car.

Models showing almost no precip for tonight in my area, and no front end thump for the weekend storm. Looking like a shutout so far, and may end up that way this year. Smart thing to do is take up another hobby, at least until the next el nino, and even that isn’t a guarantee (see: 97-98)

Just when you’re ready to move on, it pulls you back in with a bit of hopium

Yeah, if it’s trending that way, it’s not even worth a chase to Deep Creek

And Montreal could be next. btw @psuhoffman I agree with you, and wrt that CFS map I posted I was speaking in general terms, not that I expect it to verify. I hope, yes. But expect? No.

I know it’s the CFS and it’s a month away. But a map like this would work so much better for us.

When I look at this temp map, I don’t know how even a good track is going to help us. EDIT: it would be one thing if it was just slightly warm, like a couple degrees C AN. But +10C across the board?

Tbh since I moved here, it seemed qpf underperforms here almost every time

Your explanation was fine. I’m tipsy too, so I can’t go into more detail than we have already.

You could look at the 250 mb map and see where the strongest jet streams are. Right now we have a screaming pac jet and the airmasses follow that. Also note the trough over the west coast, and that trough also brings warm pacific air from SW of baja and basically floods the whole conus with it

We’re getting buried. Don’t worry. Enjoy the buzz.