Terpeast
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Everything posted by Terpeast
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Topped 31 for the high. Sunny but still cold. Had a great Christmas today with the fam. Happy holidays all!
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Pretty spot on. The MA has never done “complicated” well as far as I can remember. In fact, anytime a forecaster referred to an incoming system as “complex” - that’s an automatic red flag imo.
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Everything is covered with a layer of thick sparkly frost. Almost looks like a dusting and white christmas. Merry Christmas all!
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What do the extended ens look like? We’ve had thaws before like this even in big winters. I think we get a total of 3 maybe 4 chances. We already whiffed at one, so 2-3 more periods of cold in mid-late Jan, then a thaw last week of Jan, then another shot sometime in Feb, and maybe one last brief window in March. I think we get something in Feb, maybe Jan, too. Always a chance we could whiff on all chances, but I don’t think so.
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Low 9, now 11. Merry Christmas from Ashburn!
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Great story, glad you enjoyed it.. though I’m not sure the dog did.
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Topped out at 20. It was cold enough to get a low tire pressure warning, so I reinflated my tires. Now I’m wondering if I should deflate them a bit when it warms back up?
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Thanks! Learned something new today.
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I'm terrible at reading those MJO projections... so please correct me if I'm wrong. The black line is what has already happened, and the red part is what is happening right now, and the blue/purple is the forecast? And it seems to get stuck in 7, barely outside of COD? So if it's not going to phase 8, we would rather it go into COD and rely on another pattern like PNA or NAO, right?
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Yeah, it’s good to see that there’s an end to the temporary warmth. We can snow on this look in January.
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At the moment, it looks like we go well AN between 12/28 and 1/9 then trend to near normal temps by 1/10. For now at least.
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Think I’m bottoming out at 5 degrees. DCA went down to 9?! Wow
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9 degrees now. Heading down to 6, maybe 5.
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And is there a sign of a STJ about to develop (negative h5 anomalies east of hawaii)?
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Not saying we'll get anything out of it, but isn't that a clipper that was deemed extinct since 2015?
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Just picked up my kid from daycare an hour and half earlier than usual. My car door was frozen shut. Had to pour hot water through the door crack. Took 3 tries until it finally opened. Car thermometer (which has a slight warm bias) read 16 degrees. Ashburn VA. So, yeah. It's cold.
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12/23: Another 0.1" of slushy sleet graupel mix during the squall, then a mod SN showers for 20 minutes (no additional accums)
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I forgot to do some weather stripping on my windows, and my office window (I WFH) was leaking cold air inside. Tried to find weather stripping products, but they were all out of stock or not available today. So I used duct tape as weather stripping. It's working. So far...
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You’re in 20147 and your power is still out?
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Yeah, I think we're looking for different things with different expectations. Mine are pretty low to begin with for this season, so if we get a couple of 2-4ers/3-6ers, I see it as a "this winter met expectations" sort of thing. For a big winter to break us out of the bad streak, like the kind of winter you want, I think we look to next year.
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Blue skies showing in the west, getting windier by the minute.
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Appreciate you showing your work. I don't think we're that far apart in our assessments. My low end call for DCA is 7", and your average from non-nino years without Dec snow in DCA is 6". That's one inch. Maybe I strike a more optimistic tone than you do, but when we both drill down into the data, we're one inch apart in our assessments.
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Snow has stopped here for now. At least I saw some flakes flying around and it was mod SN for a bit. That was fun. I'll take that as another W.
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Mod SN windy
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Changed over to light snow!
