Terpeast

Looks like a clipper. But someone told me they’d gone extinct in recent years.

Posting a 500mb map longer than 2 weeks out should result in 3 day ban That’s actually a good idea. Especially if it’s an OP run.

FWIW, LWX mentioned the possibility of a brief period of anafrontal snow in their recent AFD.

So it looks like around 18-19z when the front crosses DCA?

I'm back after a decade's hiatus, so yeah I might as well be new here.

It'll be interesting to watch for sure. I'll be right by the window for this.

I still wouldn't get too excited about this. I mean, we can't even trust the models beyond 3 days right now, and anafront snows are very rare here.

I remember it well, too, obviously. I was in Vienna at the time, and I was coming back home from swim practice in torrential rain. My mom was driving and she was white knuckling it the whole way because we could hardly anything in front of us. Then just as we got home, it changed over to snow and a brief blizzard of thundersnow ensued. We would see purple flashes of lightning through the snow. My cousin, who was staying with us at the time, and I jebwalked through it... it was awesome. The most memorable 2 inches I've ever seen in my life. P.S. after that event, the entire month of December totally sucked donkey balls... by the end of the month I was whining "it never snows here anymore". Then we all know what happened a week after that.

November 1995. It was THAT long ago.

That fropa will be fun to watch if it pans out…

I don’t remember saying anything to the effect of “losing everything else we need for a snowstorm” just because the pna ridge was too far west. In fact, my point was we were so close and all we needed was a slight adjustment on the overall pattern. Shift that ridge east a bit and we might have gotten something. And it’s certainly possible the -NAO might have been too much too strong with the TNH. But I wasn’t saying we need to “reshuffle the deck” and start over. As if we had any control over mother nature. She’ll do that for us.

Yes. You’re a quick study.

In November it was reload this month it’s nuances. Wonder what’s next in January.

Well that’s obviously a negative PNA. It’s really no wonder December turned out to be awful up and down the EC. Only reason it wasn’t a torch is that -AO/NAO.

Agreed. I don’t think this is a good pattern to begin with. By that I mean what’s actually out there in reality, not what has been depicted on model maps 7+ days out. There’s a difference, and the “good” pattern the models told us was coming did not fully come to fruition. Yes we got the -nao, but we did not get the +pna (which is even more important in Dec than Jan-Feb) Having all these cutters is about what we would expect from a La Nina.

Great game indeed. I think Messi and Argentina deserved the W.

Well, that's a wind jackpot east of the apps over my house. I'm happy again!

Best and most dramatic final I’ve ever seen

Breezy, 34. No flurries though. Ashburn.

100% agreed with your point about the misplaced pna ridge. It was never really in a good position to begin with.

Yeah, without using the overused “R” word, the weeklies still maintain a mean eastern trough over the east through Jan. Key is to pull that western ridge far enough east to prevent storms from cutting. Also the NAO seems to be going neutral or weakly positive. That may not be a bad thing with that +TNH.

Doing everything they can to pull us back in

Admittedly I thought those warm SSTs in that area would help create more storminess and maintain 50-50 lows there better, but it may actually be causing more ridging forcing the 50-50 lows out quicker. Also the west coast ridge being too far west doesn’t help either. I don’t think we’ve ever really locked in a +pna all this time.

Should have said “anthropogenic” climate change. But that’s not my point, and I didn’t come here for the politics ok?

While climate change is real, I don’t think it is to blame for this debacle. We never really locked in a +pna in this pattern despite the strong -nao. It looked good on the model runs, but it hasn’t played out as predicted.