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Terpeast

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Everything posted by Terpeast

  1. Terpeast
    Normal 850s this time of year is around 0 for dca. 12z eps has us at -1 to -2 for wave 2, colder n/w gonna be close
  2. Terpeast
    That looks even closer to the coast than 12z eps
  3. Terpeast
    Not at this range, it’s fine where it is now
  4. Terpeast
    Look west. ridge starting to pop. Starting to initialize mjo at 8, hmm.
  5. Terpeast
    I know you’re joking, but I’m reserving judgement until I see the next 2 days of model runs.
  6. Terpeast
    Roll it back 6 or 12 hours? Want to see where it is relative to IAD/DCA
  7. Terpeast
    Yes nina is dead, but I’m curious if the models will change and shift h5 tracks further south and bring colder air further south if they use mjo 8 as initialized conditions rather than projecting into it from phase 7. If my question makes any sense?
  8. Terpeast
    Have we entered mjo phase 8 yet? I'm curious how models will adjust, if any, once we're well into 8 at high amplitude.
  9. Terpeast
    The nina is now dead. 3.4 is -0.2 atm. The cpc enso update is based on the average of the last 90 days, so they are behind. We’ll know by June or July where this nino is going, if it does develop.
  10. Terpeast
    Even the pros at LWX aren’t touching this at all. Mt Holly doesn’t think we’ll (the entire MA) get much snow out of this from the first storm.
  11. Terpeast
    That gfs bomb ots is fine where it is at range. I don’t believe it will go that far ots because record warmth waters will keep the baroclinic boundary closer to the coast. But the way it bombs? I believe it.
  12. Terpeast
    Odd yes, but I’ll take that h5 (maybe 50 miles south) and run with it. I don’t care what the 18z eps snow maps say.
  13. Terpeast
    Except it didn’t for march 4, but different pattern I know
  14. Terpeast
    Is that what we mean when we say the gfs caved? Wow, what a change over 24h
  15. Terpeast
    Something new that came up on todays model runs is a second wave following closely on the first one’s heels, not the one that comes almost a week later. Ensembles signal is faint but its there. Could get interesting if we get a follow up wave timed well with cold air after the first.
  16. Terpeast
    It’s cold enough for a front end thump or mix east of the mountains, verbatim.
  17. Terpeast
    Better set of runs today than yesterday. Could be that the models are initializing the block more accurately and we are starting to enter mjo 8
  18. Terpeast
    Maybe he got tired of dealing with the MA forum. He still posts in the NE forum
  19. Terpeast
    Maybe with a stronger 50/50 we get more confluence. But if the wave ejects from the W too strong/amped, it can’t trend S
  20. Terpeast
    Ok so not THAT different. Primary into OH, then maybe redevelop somewhere off the coast.
  21. Terpeast
    Huge differences still even at 120 hr lead times. One would think they’d start coming into better agreement by now.
  22. Terpeast
    Yeah, I wfh and so does my wife. We could have moved to tahoe or buffalo. But we chose here because our daughter gets to see my mom once a week and we both have friends in the area. Too important to pass up just to live in an area with more snow, which we could always visit on a chase btw.
  23. Terpeast
    Doubt it. Maybe 60% of the previous normal will be the new normal. That’s what my trend graph was pointing towards. ~10 DCA ~14 BWI & IAD With a KU once every 6-8 years. Or something like that.
  24. Terpeast
    Orientation of the block is better, too.
  25. Terpeast
    Normal 850 temps are 0 in mid-march for DCA, as opposed to about -4 in Jan. So they need to be below normal to support snow as long as the BL is saturated and/or isothermal
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