Terpeast

Regarding comparison to 18-19, @brooklynwx99 just presented an open-and-shut case here. Previously, I had 18-19 as one potential analog, but not anymore.

If you were straddling the r/s/mix line, then maybe. Otherwise they’d be even more juiced The Feb 1987 storm would be all rain today, though.

Yeah, agreed. That’s the direction I’m leaning towards atm

Yeah I’ve seen this before, and it’s a great reference to simplify things. But I’m taking a broader Pacific-wide view of the PDO, not only the basin north/NW of Hawaii. I also look at the pdo cycle 1-3 years before each preceding winter analog season to get an idea of how conditions evolved up to each winter. The part you and I agree on is that there will be competing factors this winter, with the -pdo working against us. But I believe the “negativity” of the pdo will weaken, and the basin-wide (or west-leaning) enso will eventually win out. meanwhile, of course we are going to see -pna episodes that’s going to get people here concerned (while its of no surprise to me).

I think that’s where you and I differ a bit. I don’t think the PDO has to flip positive for the MA/SNE to get a decently productive winter. A +PDO, especially if strong, also brings its own set of challenges, like a too-strong aleutian low flooding the CONUS with mild air a la 97-98. It’s a double edged sword, and as the 1960s and 09-10 has proved, we don’t need the PDO to flip in a dramatic manner, just move towards the neutral range.

Amazing, the marine heat wave off Japan is nearly gone. Now lets work on the ssts north/NW of hawaii. This upcoming rex block might help with that, even if it causes a -pna for us in the process.

I actually think its the other way around. Based on my top analogs so far (could change) I’m seeing a signal for a wet winter with a STJ. Whether that is accompanied by cold temps is tbd.

A storm out of the gulf in October would most probably be tropical, and el ninos tend to suppress hurricane activity in those parts. It’s getting quieter now. let’s get to mid January, and if we haven’t had anything come out of the gulf and no models are showing anything 2 weeks out, then maybe it’s time to get concerned

New 3.4 daily peak at +1.72

Low of 45

Ensembles showing a transitory -pna the last week of october, starting with a building ridge over aleutians/alaska. But what’s interesting is support for a rex block in the north pac, with a low/trough replacing that stubborn nina-like ridge north/NW of hawaii. Longer range shows additional ridging over the aleutians and west thereof, with continued troughing NW of hawaii. Will be interesting to see how the PDO evolves, and I’m thinking much less negative than it is now.

Thanks, it seems they use CDAS. The one I posted uses OISST, which I think is what is used officially.

Daily 1+2 has fallen below 2.0c for the first time

Maybe. I could care less what it does now. Starting Dec-Jan is when it really matters.

Yeah, this thing is gonna keep us guessing for another couple of months.

.52” total

Forgive my ignorance, but what is the RNA? I’ve seen you and 40/70 reference it a lot, but I can’t find any data or index in this link, and when I google it I only see stuff about genetics https://psl.noaa.gov/data/climateindices/list/

0.17” today

Nino 3 also had a bit of a jump today.

It was for California and Buffalo, but the rest? Not really

It’s still too early to worry about winter storm tracks this time of year. The fact that we’re having *any* EC storms now is a good sign, but only that.

The weekend rule is alive and well.

Too soon to call a peak with a new KW in the subsurface, and if we stay above 1.5 through most of the remaining 2 weeks of October, we'll likely end up with a 1.5 ASO value for ONI. Where it goes after that is anyone's guess. Either we have an early ASO peak at 1.5 (low end strong), or we have a later peak at around 1.6-1.8.

Wow, the 1950s must have been brutal for weenies... Then came the 1960s.

That's absolutely fair to say. Let's say we duplicate all the signals we were getting in 2009 into this year. In any other "normal" time, everyone would be optimistic like @nw baltimore wx just said. But after an awful 7 year stretch like the one we had, would we have that same optimism even if the same signals are staring right at us in the face? I'm not saying that's the case, but like I said in my other post, 09-10 is one of my top analog matches based on nino strength, structure, forcing, QBO, and even the PDO.