Terpeast
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Everything posted by Terpeast
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LWX saying wintry precip in next week’s storm is “plausible” for our area… in a nod to the GFS. Euro and CMC still show a cutter and rain. I’m not up to speed on model performance and comparison, but Euro used to be the king. That still the case or has it gotten dethroned?
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Yeah, it usually goes the other way.
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Interesting trend for the dec 16 cutter. Rain-snow line was all the way up in michigan/canada just a few runs ago. Now it’s closer to the m/d line. that’s the gfs op though. No idea on ens or what the euro says
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Wouldn’t be surprised to see record cold in the midwest with that setup.
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Promising sign at 10 days out. Before it was always 14-15 days+
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Well, when you put it this way…
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Rainy foggy. 48. Iweathernet only has 0.06” for me but I think I had more and it just reset.
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Apt.
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48 and drizzly
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At least we’re not torching, right?
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Exactly what I wanted to see. Pushing that aleutian ridge east to get cold air east of the rockies… and here. Hope this holds.
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Appreciate the rec. Will buy it today. Thanks!
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So dry that my wife is having nose bleeds. She’s from a tropical climate and not used to it
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21 for the low, sparkly frost everywhere. Rebounded strongly to 45.
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Yep. Now it looks like astroturf
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Just mowed the lawn in December for the first time in my life. Set the mower to the lowest setting possible. Call it page #108 in the La Nina winter playbook. If it snows just an inch, the grass will be completely covered…
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What I wanted to see if we’re gonna snow before the 15th is a more poleward aleutian high shifted more east to dump arctic air east of the rockies. The maps don’t show that and never have until EPS hints toward it dec ~17th or so. Otherwise we can make a -pna work in January but not this time of year.
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12z GEFS still has a signal for an EC storm around the 15th. Still in the game…
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Strange, I would have thought the PNA would be more positive. Looks more neutral/weak + when the big one happened
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Agreed, and it’s much easier to get a good snowfall out of a -pna in Jan/Feb than it is in December. It’s just not cold enough yet
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Looks like a classic 4-8er with no ptype issues. I’d take it and run.
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24 for the low here. Really had to scrape my car
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Good one. I’m still skeptical of a big snow because of the big -nao for this exact reason. -pna is a bit too negative for my liking… for now. Could change as modeled, though. And if this plays out like those two analogs, we could be looking at a really good January.
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My 2022-23 winter outlook & "what went wrong" Post-mortem
Terpeast replied to Terpeast's topic in Mid Atlantic
November turned out to be +3 and we’re looking at a strong -nao and colder temps in December, so things are on track so far. I would love to get a big snow in December but I’m not seeing deep cold with the aleutian ridge / -pna. If we do get a storm mid-Dec or earlier, the H5 maps over the pacific look like it might not be cold enough for an all snow event. I think this winter will be full of surprises, though. -
Yeah, it must be entirely automated. But still.
