That's even if we get snow as a cold front passes.
Which is a... generous assumption in these parts.
OTOH, GEFS 12z has a miller B signature rather than a pure cutter. On 12/23 give or take
With that pna ridge, I’m liking our chances despite the op models not showing much of anything.
We don’t have that western ridge in place right now. Just get it there, and let the rest take care of itself.
The 12/23 cutter?
CMC phases and cuts, 06z GFS does not and southern sw goes OTS.
All about timing. (And we get it wrong most of the time… but still have a chance of lucking into it. We just won’t see it until 3 days before)
This depiction is what I think might happen if a cold disturbance runs over ripe warm waters off the MA coast… then BOOM.
Not saying we’ll get a foot right here in DC. But someone up the corridor towards the NE is going to get hammered within a few weeks of this pattern.
I count 4 misses to the south and OTS.
Something tells me the mega baroclinicity between atlantic warm water and the coming cold air will not let storms miss.