Terpeast
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Everything posted by Terpeast
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These two analogs have a snowier Feb. I had eyes on the 1985-86 analog in my winter forecast. That I would take in a heartbeat.
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Reasonable, same basic idea as my outlook. Maybe a little too optimistic about the nina decaying as fast as they said it will.
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Yeah, the first 2 weeks is already sealed, imo. And imagine how cold the second half of novie has to get just to get us to average.
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I expected a mild november, but not a torcher like this. But that’s ok. It’s all about timing here.
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Yeah, the problem with an early flip to cold is that when it flips back warm, it usually means an early end to the winter in this “new” climo
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0.3” here. Radar looks like we’re done
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Yep, a flip late nov would be too soon east of the blue ridge. Delay that a couple/few weeks, we’re golden
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Low 32. Bit surprised to see frost everywhere, but this is probably the last time in a few weeks.
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The reds are really popping in Ashburn lately.
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If this pans out and stretches to late Nov, my +2 forecast for mid atlantic might get close to verifying. Then I go cold for Dec-Jan…
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Only when it’s 384 hrs out, can we take it seriously
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I predicted 11/4-5 for the rest, while I was off for IAD by 5 days.
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Yeah I know. I was being facetious
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How ironic would it be if I flew to TX on the 20th and missed this one
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Maybe I woke up too late, but lighter and patchier frost this morning than yesterday. Don’t think I actually got down to freezing.
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Yup
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Think 33 is the lowest I got. There was frost this time. Everywhere.
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Looking more and more positive. When was the last 3rd year nina with a +pdo?
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Skyline drive on Monday morning between 211 and Stony Man. IMG_4311.MOV
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34 low, no frost.
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Even if they were smart enough to leave after a busted winter forecast, he can still use the “churn n’ burn” strategy and still keep the lights on.
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Real question is do subscribers stay when it turns out he was wrong… and if they do, why?
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Low of 35
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My 2022-23 winter outlook & "what went wrong" Post-mortem
Terpeast replied to Terpeast's topic in Mid Atlantic
What’s interesting about that winter is that it was backloaded. Most of its snow came in Feb. Overall it was on the cold side though. -
Perhaps, but it’s fun.
