Terpeast

Or even 50. I wouldn’t use analogs earlier than 1980, even though the 70s are interesting ones to look at.

Crispy morning low of 56, went out for a run. Felt great.

Like you said, we’ll get our answer by Nov. pdo is still negative atm

Well… looks like Wentz and the commanders pulled one out today.

Central pac ssts cooling just south of the aleutians, slight warming trend off the west coast. Still a ways off from a +pdo (sig warming further west), but if trend holds, the pac may not be so hostile this winter. from https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/lanina/enso_evolution-status-fcsts-web.pdf

I think the grass grew another inch overnight. My lawn mower delivery is delayed (again) and the lawn service will surely slap another surcharge for grass being over 6”. Anyway, the obligatory deck pic. Hopefully it’ll look much more white in the winter.

Radar is clear here, but it’s actually a heavy misty drizzle / RA-. Maybe radar isn’t very accurate in this spot for light precip.

@snowfan @nj2va Thanks both! We’ll look into Canaan around the first/second weekend of Oct!

When is the best time to see the fall colors along Skyline drive / Shenendoah national park? I want to take my wife there. She’s from Vietnam and has never seen the fall colors, so I want to take her there one weekend. It’s roughly a 1.5-2 hour drive from where we live. How are the colors looking there so far, if anyone lives closeby?

2” here in Ashburn. Nice overnight soaker. Pleasantly surprised.

Brief shower in Ashburn. Grass starting to look pretty dry.

Ah, right. Sarcasm doesn't come through a computer screen very well, at least for me.

Same in Ashburn. 93-94 or so. Don't know the dews, but heat index is at least 100 for sure.

Things are upbeat here? While it's too early to make any calls, I can't seem to get excited about this winter anyhow. ENSO and all the teleconnections are working against us, broadly giving us the exact opposite of what we want.

Whiffed yet again. Gusty winds and cooler temps though.

Got soaked while hauling tools from Home Depot to the car, and I wasn’t even parked that far from the entrance. These things get you when you least expect it.

Finally getting dumped on now. Before cells were firing up north east west south of me doing their best to avoid my spot. But now, all good.

Not one drop imby so far. Seems to be a recurring theme this summer.

Was 1979-1992 really that bad? Not sure if you’re talking NYC north, but in the mid-atlantic we had PD1, 83 and 87. Grew up with those and had plenty of fun as a kid. Sure, we had lots of duds in between those winters but that’s par for the course around here.

And the pacific doesn’t look good to me either. Pretty grim if the canadian is correct.

Decent rain here in Vienna/Fairfax.

Interesting. I also read somewhere that western pacific typhoon ACE has a more significant but inverse correlation with US winter temps than the atlantic. Can't find the link though.

Yeah, it seems this region had a tough stretch lately and a blockbuster is probably too much to ask for during a nina (which appears likely this winter). Hopefully my weenieism brings some luck back though!

Terpeast is back! Don’t know if anyone remembers (probably not) but I was active here between 2002 and 2010 till I moved away and then lived overseas for a while. I’ve still lurked here from time to time, and am familiar with mappy, stormtracker, Matt, psuhoffman, Chuck, and of course, Ji and Jebman (plus many others - too many to name). Now I just recently moved back, offered on a house and will be closing on it next week. Will be living in Ashburn off the greenway towards Leesburg. Hoping to cash in on some decent snows so my kid and I can enjoy them together! Happy to be back!

If the Euro and NAM are in agreement, as a met, you don't want to go against them.