Terpeast

I liked this writeup about Hunga Tonga and potential effects on this winter. https://www.severe-weather.eu/global-weather/cold-anomaly-stratosphere-polar-vortex-volcanic-cooling-winter-influence-fa/

I'm not, but I'm not all enthusiastic about it either. We're about to witness a global experiment on what happens when we inject a butt ton of vapor (a strong greenhouse gas) directly into the polar stratosphere.

I’m not sure that it does. There are a lot of “if”s to make that happen.

Already seeing blue skies behind the line. Barely a trace. Think I got screwed again

Low of 44, ashburn

Yeah I saw that! Is that going to be a first if it actually pans out?

Yeah, if we’re going BN, it’ll be more like -1 or -2. The good news is we don’t even have to get that cold to get good snows as 2009-10 showed.

Worth noting that the 4 corners in the west are warmer than normal in all four cases… and on the flip side, interier NE (especially Maine) are colder than normal in all cases.

Terrible look in August. Now? Not great, but not game over yet. Hoping the trend holds. source: https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/MJO/olra_last30days-3plots.gif

As long as he’s not in a flood zone, all good.

Looks like a copy paste nina winter outlook

For IAD, the range is between 2.6" and 15.8", average is 9". Source https://www.weather.gov/media/lwx/climate/iadsnow.pdf

I agree with you that it's standard nina climo that we usually get stuck between suppressed cold/dry and warm/wet cutter tracks. With a moderate but weakening nina, -PDO, and the NAO being projected to avg weakly positive, I still lean towards a below normal snowfall this winter. But there are a couple of X factors that didn't exist on previous analogs - one being that the ATL hurricane season has been uncharacteristically quiet, and two being the H2O vapor eruption with undetermined effects on the stratosphere (i.e. there is a long chain of "ifs" that must come true to get -AO from a NH strat warming as a result). Again, leaning BN snowfall, but leaving the door open to a couple of surprises.

Careful what you wish for..

2 are -nao 1 (dwdd) is extreme +nao/+ao And 5 showing a neutral to weak +nao. (that’s where I see consensus)

Or even 50. I wouldn’t use analogs earlier than 1980, even though the 70s are interesting ones to look at.

Crispy morning low of 56, went out for a run. Felt great.

Like you said, we’ll get our answer by Nov. pdo is still negative atm

Well… looks like Wentz and the commanders pulled one out today.

Central pac ssts cooling just south of the aleutians, slight warming trend off the west coast. Still a ways off from a +pdo (sig warming further west), but if trend holds, the pac may not be so hostile this winter. from https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/lanina/enso_evolution-status-fcsts-web.pdf

I think the grass grew another inch overnight. My lawn mower delivery is delayed (again) and the lawn service will surely slap another surcharge for grass being over 6”. Anyway, the obligatory deck pic. Hopefully it’ll look much more white in the winter.

Radar is clear here, but it’s actually a heavy misty drizzle / RA-. Maybe radar isn’t very accurate in this spot for light precip.

@snowfan @nj2va Thanks both! We’ll look into Canaan around the first/second weekend of Oct!

When is the best time to see the fall colors along Skyline drive / Shenendoah national park? I want to take my wife there. She’s from Vietnam and has never seen the fall colors, so I want to take her there one weekend. It’s roughly a 1.5-2 hour drive from where we live. How are the colors looking there so far, if anyone lives closeby?

2” here in Ashburn. Nice overnight soaker. Pleasantly surprised.