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Terpeast

Meteorologist
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Everything posted by Terpeast

  1. Terpeast

    Winter 2022-23

    Terpeast replied to Ji's topic in Mid Atlantic

    How does a +nao help us here? This cold map is almost entirely driven by the poleward E Pac ridge driving cold air south
  2. Terpeast
    Took family out for a walk to enjoy 65-70 degree temps before they fall like a rock tonight and tomorrow.
  3. Terpeast
    Could see some mood flakes, and what’s interesting is that the models show a few impulses along the SE coast in the next week or so. Maybe it’s just a blip, but it could also be a sign of what’s to come this winter whenever we get a positively tilted longwave trough centered over the US midwest.
  4. Terpeast
    0.92” total. Would’ve been nice to get more, but I’ll take it.
  5. Terpeast
    Death band incoming
  6. Terpeast
    Big ass dry slot.
  7. Terpeast
    0.6” here. Felt like we got more though. Hopefully that second round delivers.
  8. Terpeast
    Very detailed, nice work. Was looking forward to your outlook and you delivered!
  9. Terpeast
    Agreed. Not expecting anything east of the blue ridge anytime soon, but if we get another shot after a reload in December, I think we will get something.
  10. Terpeast

    Winter 2022-23

    Terpeast replied to Ji's topic in Mid Atlantic

    I don’t get it either. I follow his posts, but I’m seeing mixed messages.
  11. Terpeast
    Yeah, that might be one of the best matches now. 1985-86 is becoming less and less of a match.
  12. Terpeast
    Funnily enough, a month ago we could have said that October was the new November
  13. Terpeast
    It’s possible, not holding my breath. First, the airmass has to be cold enough and climo is not there yet. Second, it would have to thread the needle since we’re not getting any help from the NAO (it’s positive on that map) I think we get a cold rain and mix/snow in the mountains
  14. Terpeast
    Read my own outlook, and don’t see much reason to change anything for now. November is off to a very warm start, and next week’s cold weather will reduce the magnitude of warm anomalies. Then the pattern I believe will relax a bit after the cold shot. Pretty confident we’ll finish the month at +2 if not much higher. Still expecting another flip to cold after Thanksgiving.
  15. Terpeast
    BWI: 15” DCA: 11” IAD: 17” RIC: 6” Tiebreaker (SBY): 7”
  16. Terpeast
    Ah that’s weatherbell. I was using tropicaltidbits, and it has this weird quirk when you look at a past run and then click forward or backward in the run, it defaults back to the current model run. I guess that’s why I did not see it. Either way it won’t happen.
  17. Terpeast
    Muggy out when I raked the leaves and mowed the lawn. It’s raining now
  18. Terpeast
    I checked the 0z gfs run and could not see anything resembling any snow anywhere close to here. I saw mostly a cold rain with snow in the appalachians
  19. Terpeast
    Not sure what’s more impressive for November, breaking 80… or the nighttime low being higher than June’s average.
  20. Terpeast
    Wow, that’s a pretty good look. Hope it gets close to verifying.
  21. Terpeast
    Excellent write up, thanks for sharing! These posts are what makes this forum great.
  22. Terpeast
    Am doing the same
  23. Terpeast
    Sustained 20-30 mph winds, reduced visibility to your own picket fence, with blowing and drifting.
  24. Terpeast
    Warm and breezy at 75. Beautiful day out at a pumpkin patch with the little ones. Enjoy it while it lasts
  25. Terpeast

    Winter 2022-23

    Terpeast replied to Ji's topic in Mid Atlantic

    So would I, but didn’t want to raise my own expectations
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