Terpeast

Trace sleet accum becoming noticeable on my deck

Took the trash out, saw some sleet mixing in.

And now light rain. 34/30

Same as mine. Not a flake out though. Bone dry.

Nothing outside yet

30/23 now

Much better look, especially for January. Now let’s hope this isn’t underestimating the WAR.

Still pretty dry at 900mb, good sign there.

Found another station nearby, can’t say anything of its accuracy but it’s reading 33/26

If going by the 3:1 dp/temp adjustment to wet bulb temp, IAD currently at 36/24 will meet at 33 at saturation. Rain. Could get colder with more CAD, but not with a light wind from the SE.

Nice link! Thanks. I was looking at the NWS 3 day history

The fall line in the recent run appears just west of my house. Probably once you gain elevation after passing Leesburg you’d see something.

IAD dropped from 37 to 32 in the last hour, with a 22 dp.

Only if we get a legit STJ. I don't see it yet.

Looked at the models and trends today. I’m not buying into the anafront, but it wouldn’t surprise me to see a brief snow shower or two (no accumulation) just as precip shuts off on fropa. I’ll take that.

I agree with this for 2 reasons: 1. A lot depends on the antecedent airmass and the high pressure position & strength prior to a storm. If you take one specific storm and put the exact same track into a slightly different airmass and a slightly different high up north, then you'll see different results, and you can't solely blame AGW for it. 2. We've seen cold 33 degree rainstorms before. I grew up here, and we've had them every winter. They're nothing new. EDIT: adding a 3rd reason: 3. We seem to be forgetting that in the last several years, the delmarva / coast made out like bandits in their own heater. They had, what, 3 or 4 "bomb cyclones" dumping 18" give or take right on those beaches, right?

I remember that storm. That was the only legit snow we had that winter. We got other storms where it snowed in NC/SC but rained here at 33-36 degrees.

Crazy how cold it is this week so far and how much colder it's going to be buy rain is still our main precip Cold, then warms up to rain, then cold after. Story of my life in the mid atlantic since the late 70s

Low 19

Just woke up. Did I miss anything?

Welp. Thanks anyways.

Not sure when NAM gets into its range, but it seems to be trending colder at precip onset. Only checked 850 temps, not ptype

I was checking daily temps and precip data for IAD and DCA for the 85-86 winter, which was - and still is - my top analog for this winter. It was very back loaded, and it didn’t really get going until the end of February, when it got most of its snow. It was quite cold wall to wall, but had so little to show for it Dec-Jan. I can only imagine what this forum would have been like in a winter like this.

I think the bigger culprit than chaos or lack of 50/50 is the pna being too far west. Models initially had it centered over the western rockies, then pulled it back westward just offshore into the eastern Pacific. I’ve said it before and I’ll say it again - without a western US ridge, we have a snowballs chance in hell of getting a good snowstorm here. Especially if it’s December. OTOH, if we had a 50/50, plenty of cold air, and a block of just the right strength and position, then MAYBE we can get away with a neutral PNA.

Dipped to 23