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Terpeast

Meteorologist
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Everything posted by Terpeast

  1. Terpeast
    Saw some sleet at a lunar new year festival held outdoors. Good times. And as far as qpf, it’s an underperformer. Good! If we’re going to rain at 38, I rather get 0.1” of drizzle… than get 2” knowing if it were cold enough we could have gotten 20”.
  2. Terpeast
    Drizzle in Vienna. Weather app says snow showers but I don’t see it.
  3. Terpeast
    Yep! No it hasn’t.
  4. Terpeast
    Maybe this will change the storm’s karma
  5. Terpeast
    Front? what front?
  6. Terpeast
    Kinda strange to see the canadian ens being the warmest out of the 3 majors in the LR. usually it’s the coldest. This time it’s probably correct
  7. Terpeast
    Wow that beer was good. Nice to not think about winter on a Friday night for once
  8. Terpeast
    Drinking a St Benardus Abt 12 tonight. Big bottle.
  9. Terpeast
    I don’t have the answers as I’m no expert on models. It does seem to me that they consistently underestimate the SER/WAR. Maybe they need to update them to account for that, especially if it’s become a permanent fixture. I hope I’m wrong and that all we need is a few cyclones to churn up those waters and when this nina is finally dead, maybe the whole thing can get a nice reset.
  10. Terpeast
    Which I’ll take.
  11. Terpeast
    Yep, as soon as that tilt goes neg, it’s going to cut.
  12. Terpeast
    Both euro and gfs cuts on 1/25. Calling that one a L and moving on to the next one. and the next… and the next… … (cue the waiting skeleton meme)
  13. Terpeast
    Psuhoffman log entry #35934
  14. Terpeast
    Well now that may help us a little then. Still need the cold air though, which we don’t have. Yet. Also as a whole, the W atlantic is still warm, but not on absolute fire like it was before.
  15. Terpeast
    More confluence up top, 540 thru dca. Too bad it’s the ICON lol
  16. Terpeast
    Think it’s just a modeling artifact. Wouldn’t read too much into it. When I see something like that I mentally “smooth” the track out, and to factor in the warm waters off NC/VA, adjust entire track west a good hundred miles.
  17. Terpeast
  18. Terpeast
    Yup, back to D10 ensemble tracking. Maybe another chase attempt at Canaan/Blackwater is in order for next weekend.
  19. Terpeast
    Yeah I remember those ice storms. Iciest winter I've ever seen. And that January storm it was raining/sleeting at 19 degrees.
  20. Terpeast
    Op euro verbatim has a brutal gradient. 10" in leesburg and less than 1" in DC proper. I hope for this forum's sake that doesn't happen.
  21. Terpeast
    Yeah, a lot depends on what the Jan 23 system does. It’s like a volleyball setter for the next wave.
  22. Terpeast
    Now if we can hold this look through Saturday’s model runs, I’ll start to get excited.
  23. Terpeast
    Maybe with a more SE track on the Jan 23 wave (still not thinking in play for us) we could get a better airmass setup for the next wave after that?
  24. Terpeast
    I see what you did there...
  25. Terpeast
    Good post. I agree, and was thinking similarly in that if our window is only 5 days, that’s not good enough. We need a good 2 week window of cold (doesn’t have to be arctic) with multiple waves. One might hit. But there has to be plenty of time for that to happen.
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