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Terpeast

Meteorologist
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Everything posted by Terpeast

  1. Terpeast
  2. Terpeast
    Yup, back to D10 ensemble tracking. Maybe another chase attempt at Canaan/Blackwater is in order for next weekend.
  3. Terpeast
    Yeah I remember those ice storms. Iciest winter I've ever seen. And that January storm it was raining/sleeting at 19 degrees.
  4. Terpeast
    Op euro verbatim has a brutal gradient. 10" in leesburg and less than 1" in DC proper. I hope for this forum's sake that doesn't happen.
  5. Terpeast
    Yeah, a lot depends on what the Jan 23 system does. It’s like a volleyball setter for the next wave.
  6. Terpeast
    Now if we can hold this look through Saturday’s model runs, I’ll start to get excited.
  7. Terpeast
    Maybe with a more SE track on the Jan 23 wave (still not thinking in play for us) we could get a better airmass setup for the next wave after that?
  8. Terpeast
    I see what you did there...
  9. Terpeast
    Good post. I agree, and was thinking similarly in that if our window is only 5 days, that’s not good enough. We need a good 2 week window of cold (doesn’t have to be arctic) with multiple waves. One might hit. But there has to be plenty of time for that to happen.
  10. Terpeast
    My thoughts today: - Jan 23 was never really in play for us - Before we get invested in a threat, question is how cold do we get and how long does the colder airmass last? - Not convinced this isn’t another headfake or can kick yet…
  11. Terpeast
    35 this morning when I went out. Some slick spots and a little ice on my windshield. Not sure what happened
  12. Terpeast
    I’m increasingly confident that the uber warmth in Canada will begin to get scoured out starting at D6-7. After that, its TBD whether that cold air gets far enough east.
  13. Terpeast
    That’s a hopium outcome, but I still suspect at least 2/3 of Feb will be warm. This nina is stubborn af, and ninos aren’t necessarily cold winters. My guess right now would be the first and last weeks of Feb will be cold, with march still being a wildcard.
  14. Terpeast
    Haha yeah totally, that’s why I disliked Bob Ryan. He seemed to revel in the snow lover’s disappointment. I liked Doug Hill way better.
  15. Terpeast
    I vividly remember that. I was practically yelling at the TV.
  16. Terpeast
    Took a nice walk outside. 52 here an Ashburn. Anytime we get a day like this, take advantage.
  17. Terpeast
    Presidents day. We’ve had two storms that day, pd1 79 and pd2 03
  18. Terpeast
    Would we all be surprised if this triggers a PD3 storm that puts this winter in better standing? I would. But one can dream.
  19. Terpeast
    Step number 1... get the cold air here first.
  20. Terpeast
    Replace 992 low N of the lakes with a 1035 high, and then maybe we got something.
  21. Terpeast
    Wasn’t the CFS a torch through and through just a few days ago? Either it’s picking up on a new and more favorable trend, or it’s just flip flopping.
  22. Terpeast
    I noticed that too, at least on the gefs. Maybe we can sneak into an overrunner somewhere around the last week of Jan
  23. Terpeast
    Ah, there we go. It's not just our problem. It's interesting (and unfortunate) how the similar land-ocean configuration leads to a long and wide swath of boiling ssts just offshore and how it's affecting seasonal snowfall in not just one place, but two (or more) places.
  24. Terpeast
    We see similar warm ssts off Japan. Wondering if Japan is also torching?
  25. Terpeast
    I was here in the easternwx days. I think the discussions we see today, occasional whining/trolling aside, are much better than in the past. Most non-met posters here can understand h5 maps and can interpret soundings, and contribute a lot of value to the discussion. Compare that with 15-20 years ago, when most non-met posters would just spam threads with “how much for Philly?” questions or when they’ll see snow in their backyards.
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