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Terpeast

Meteorologist
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Everything posted by Terpeast

  1. Terpeast
    Good set of runs so far tonight, curious as to what the euro will do but I’m going to bed now.
  2. Terpeast
    Wow, just saw that!
  3. Terpeast
    Wacky evolution for sure. Probably won’t play out as depicted but hopefully moving closer to the right solution for us
  4. Terpeast
    That march 7-8 cutter is going to play a crucial role both upstream and downstream.
  5. Terpeast
    On march 6? That’s to be expected, imo. That cutter should absorb into and reinforce the 50/50, while the w trough begins to kick east on the 10th. Gfs moved towards the euro/cmc today
  6. Terpeast
    Don’t know about you, but that doesn’t scream cutter to me.
  7. Terpeast
    That’s the least of my worries at this point
  8. Terpeast
    Yep, what usually happens with a pattern change going into our favor is a storm that cuts and draws cold air in, and the -nao and 50/50 locks it in long enough for a few attempts at a hit. Biggest failure risk imo is not suppression, it’s that the SER/W Trough tries to run the clock out on us.
  9. Terpeast
    It looks much better to me actually, esp after the 12th and onward. I would not be surprised to see a cutter on the 7-10 time frame that reinforces the 50/50 and pushes the boundary south
  10. Terpeast
    Yeah, looks like a big change to me too another thing i noticed is gfs stopped trying to link SER with -nao. Now more separation with lower heights in between
  11. Terpeast
    That big dip in gfs performance was around the perfect track rainstorm in mid feb, no?
  12. Terpeast
    FIFY
  13. Terpeast
    Yeah I don’t want a march 93. Sure I remember getting 10” before the change over, but the sleet/rain ruined that storm for me.
  14. Terpeast
    What’s the saying? The big ones get sniffed out early. Exact track TBD of course…
  15. Terpeast
    I’m on team “snow is snow no matter the month”.
  16. Terpeast
    Thermals are farther south than previous LR looks. Don’t know if it means much until the nao block establishes itself and the aleutian ridge breaks down a bit.
  17. Terpeast
    Down 42-3 and its a two minute warning. We’re about to get the ball back on our own 10 yard line.
  18. Terpeast
    Also note that this winter and last has near-record negative pdo. Such a deeply negative pdo can’t last forever, at some point it got to become less negative or near neutral.
  19. Terpeast
    Ok this is better.
  20. Terpeast
    On what dataset is this chart based? It says “sum of may-sept” so if I understand this correctly, it only covers the pdo sst index during the summer, but not winter or the full year. And why do they do it that way? Seems pretty misleading to me.
  21. Terpeast
    And at least we have the severe wx season to keep us busy until we cross the spring predictability barrier for next year’s enso state. And if by then we don’t like what we see for next year, then plan a winter vacation elsewhere. it’s what I’d do.
  22. Terpeast
    I think that window is our last hail mary 2 minute warning chance.
  23. Terpeast
    Not surprised either. And i guess it’s not which model is better, it’s which shows the most likely track given climo, enso state, and persistence.
  24. Terpeast
    All 3 low pressure centers moved south, but thermals are the same
  25. Terpeast
    And I see better separation between the vort and the one behind it. Maybe if this trend continues, ridging over montana can keep this vort pos tilted just a wee bit longer. It’s not much and it’s just one run, but it’s something.
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