Terpeast
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Everything posted by Terpeast
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About as often as it did this year. But even then, we used to cash in on smaller 1-3/2-4” events in setups like these.
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Yeah, just eyeballing daily h/l temps it certainly seemed to follow a warm/wet cold/dry pattern
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Two great winters for the MA, and one ratter. Could go either way, but I checked IAD temps for DJF 72-73 expecting a torch, but found near normal temps throughout. Deep south got 1 great snowstorm at least. Could have been atrociously bad luck for the MA?
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you should probably change your name...
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0.33 today. Hope we get a break from the pollen for a week or so.
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84 in ashburn
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87 for the high. Was digging to prep a new garden…. Sweating like it was June
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If anything, it looks even worse than this winter pattern-wise. 72-73 has +ao/+nao, while we had strong -nao twice, neither of which produced for the MA
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At least we see warm sst anomalies hugging the US W coast on cfs. Not a bad look at all… just closer to our ideal setup than we’ve had all year.
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Not a fan of that offshore W trough, dig that east a little more and we get a cutter signal. Retrograde it west, we get a bona fide Aleutian low in a classic setup. Maybe that’s how this possibility (out of a wide range atm) might evolve?
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This could be one of those weird edge cases where the -pdo actually helps us by putting the brakes on the nino from going super. And I don’t think we’ve passed the spring barrier yet… iow I think the models are being too aggressive.
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Imagine takeoffs and landings in that. Surely there are delays
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Wife is getting startled by the roaring
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High wind verified, power flickering here.
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Bit underwhelming here in ashburn. The storms missed me, and the wind feels more like an advisory event than a high wind warning event.
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Wind starting to pick up. 15-20mph
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It’s calm for now but the winds are coming later this evening. 70/55 here in ashburn
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Low of 32, but no frost.
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Agree this nino is for real, but I hope it doesn’t get too strong. It seems like we get 2-3 more nina years after every super nino.
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Better hope we get some (any?) cold air with that. It doesn't have to be "that" cold. Just cold enough.
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Good analysis but I don’t think the atmosphere is going to switch modes that quickly. It’s been a nina for 3 years, and it’s not gonna flip on a dime. Let’s see late summer/early fall whether we see a reset of the entire NH pattern.
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Doing the Opposite George thing to bring back our snow?
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I don’t think we’re getting a super nino. -pdo/-pna will put the brakes on that. Maybe +1.5 to 1.7 at most. We may not even get out of neutral territory once we get past Spring.
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At least the -pdo gets reversed somewhat
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March Medium/Long Range Thread: The Empire Strikes Back
Terpeast replied to stormtracker's topic in Mid Atlantic
Technically it did snow, but only for a couple hours and it didn’t stick. And interior NE got 20-40”. So you got the window right. -pna and lack of real cold killed it for the MA
