Terpeast
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Everything posted by Terpeast
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Got skipped. Mod rain with gusty winds. No real impact on dry ground. I’ll water the garden tomorrow.
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A few small cells appearing on my doorstep, will report back on how that evolves
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Interesting. Not long after I noted a possible gap in radar. I haven’t looked at spc meso, so there must be something that persuaded them to put up a watch soon
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Looks like a split between MD north and central VA south as per radar evolution…
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Most mesoscale models want to dry out radar sim east of blue ridge after 18z and reignite convection baltimore north
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Radar looking good out to the west. Better than models progged?
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thread the needle seems to be the theme, not just with individual coastal storms but with ssts. I’m keeping an eye on RONI/MEI as those take into account background ocean warming. These were never sufficiently positive after 2015-16, almost consistently negative which correlates well with the crap winters we’ve been getting. Cautiously optimistic we flip the script this year, but we need to get it strong enough to start with.
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Light shower. Enough to wet the surface, but not the soil. Will only increase humidity
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Darkening clouds over my house in ashburn. Let’s see if they do produce. Not holding my breath though edit: gusty winds. So maybe
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Finally had a cell jackpot over me. Dropped a nice payload of pouring rain for 20 minutes. All I had to do was water my garden a couple hours beforehand.
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Yeah that’s what we want, but hoping it does not continue trending weaker. Otherwise nino effects will get washed out with background warming
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Whiffed once again. Just a few drops. Let's see what Sunday brings.
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Interesting this graph shows most ninos pause or slow development late spring into summer, then pick up a second wind in the fall into winter.
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0.6” last night. Every little bit helps
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Efficient rain rates. Getting hosed down. Finally. Not gonna have to water my yard for the next few days. Lots of lightning too
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Starting to rain. Some lightning.
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Whoever is under this one must be enjoying quite the show (as long as they don’t suffer any damage)
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Watching that cell pass north of purcellville while I get gapped… AGAIN. Possibly those cells popping up near/north of front royal actually make their way here, but…
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Went over to mom’s house today in fairfax. Lots of cloud cover inhibited convection, and only at 4 pm a cell came over us. Non-severe. Decent downpour knocked temps back to low 80s. Drove back to ashburn at 5 pm, temps shot back up to 92 and sunny. It’s hot out. And dry as a bone.
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2023 Mid-Atlantic Severe Wx Thread (General Discussion)
Terpeast replied to Kmlwx's topic in Mid Atlantic
Reporting from fairfax, decent downpour with gusts, but no severe characteristics- 2,785 replies
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Sun is back out. Maybe something pops up later? Not exactly holding my breath
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Wasn’t bullish as soon as I woke up today. Too much cloudiness to really break the cap
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Brief downpour with a few gusts. Nothing to write home about. At least it wet the ground just enough
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2023 Mid-Atlantic Severe Wx Thread (General Discussion)
Terpeast replied to Kmlwx's topic in Mid Atlantic
Nothing on radar, but clouds are darkening overhead. Dc metro might see something fire up soon -
Why is there such a disparity between these 3? Especially CDAS vs. CRW? Should we take the average of the 3, or toss the outliers?
