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Terpeast

Meteorologist
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Everything posted by Terpeast

  1. Terpeast
    Round 2. Lets see if it amounts to anything more
  2. Terpeast
    Garden variety downpour. Not much wind unlike yesterday. But a healthy rainer.
  3. Terpeast
    Went out for a walk to clear my head. The humidity is thick. Can also feel surface convective heating as I walked. 84/72
  4. Terpeast
    Oops, I might’ve sounded like snowman19 for a second…
  5. Terpeast
    True. How was 2018-19 for SNE? It was a slightly above average winter for my area, so if we got a repeat of that, I’d be slightly disappointed that we didn’t get another 02-03 or 09-10, but I wouldn’t be complaining at all.
  6. Terpeast
    So if this thing is gonna peak at 1.4 ONI (3 month), then MEI should get up to around 0.8. The mid-atlantic has seen some decent to good winters with a MEI between 0.5-0.9. I’d prefer MEI to be 1.0-1.5, but I’d take 0.8 and run. There’s also a chance that the CFS is overcorrecting, though
  7. Terpeast
    0.7” today
  8. Terpeast
    The droughters finally cashed in!
  9. Terpeast
    Round 2 now
  10. Terpeast
    Same zipcode, didn’t see any. Think the hail was just off to my east
  11. Terpeast
    Huge downpour, was so loud that my zoom meeting commented on it
  12. Terpeast
    Looks good for a target of 1.0 give or take by Dec. Have no expectation of anything higher than 1.5
  13. Terpeast
    Wow, it’s official!
  14. Terpeast
    If legit, that is amazing. Never happened in Sept at this location.
  15. Terpeast
    Some clouds passed through, may prevent IAD from getting to 100. EDIT: Yeah, seems to have fallen back to 97-98. So no dice
  16. Terpeast
    99 imby. Legit heat
  17. Terpeast
    Here’s how it looks now imby
  18. Terpeast
    I would think once RONI/MEI reaches 1.0+ then we start to see the needle move. If we’re at 0.57 with a 1.1 JJA, then we probably need ONI to get up to at least 1.6 sustained over 3 months.
  19. Terpeast
    97 imby, dews at 69
  20. Terpeast
    Don't see any BN departures. That says a lot! (selfishly, being in the mid-atlantic, I'm getting more excited about a near-normal winter which will be "frigid" compared to the last 7 years)
  21. Terpeast
    Tracking a bit behind yesterday, so not sure if we hit 100 today. Still a couple hours of heating left to go and skies are clearer, though
  22. Terpeast
    Because ssts in the WPAC and mid latitudes are warming faster than the tropics, El Nino influence is muted. It would need to get stronger to exert the same influence as weaker ones did in the past. The opposite is true for La Ninas.
  23. Terpeast
    Hence the warning
  24. Terpeast
    I’d compare DCA to BWI, SBY, and EZF though. The lows at DCA are often warmer than all three. BWI is closer to DCA at 59 for the same reason, while SBY and EZF are both in the 56-57 range. Like raindance says, the 60F line is probably down closer to richmond. It’ll take a while for it to creep up, even if locally it gets there first at the river and bay areas.
  25. Terpeast
    We’re most definitely not in the yellow yet. Our recent 15-year average temp is 56.6, and even the last 7 years averages out to 57.3. Still solidly green. Maybe well SE of DCA towards the bay is where you’ll see the green/yellow line creeping up, but it will be a long time before I-95 and west becomes yellow.
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