Terpeast

Just started raining

Think it means the westward tracks modeled may turn out to be correct, maybe it means rain west of i-95 going higher end of forecast

Getting the same warm Dec vibe. Those ssts off Japan are on fire so it’ll take a while to cool them off as the weather gets colder into autumn and early winter, and latent heating as part of the cooling process will support an aluetian ridge for a little while. It’s gonna have to play out before we get the nino pattern to manifest. Wild card though is the MJO

Just might become a low end cat 1 right before landfall

Better get a bad pattern out of the way now. Most models had this in their forecasts and don’t pop an aleutian low until Jan.

And it's not just Dec 2022... it's also the entire winter of 2022-23 with the trough digging all the way into Baja and burying SoCal with several feet of snow. I'm not a betting man, but if I were, I'd say that extreme type of pattern won't happen again for at least a decade or more.

NHC track further west. Up the bay

Anyone notice that canadian and NHC have tracks further east than gfs, euro, icon and nam?

That’s actually a pretty reasonable outlook. My ONI vs MEI analysis a few pages back supports this somewhat. I also think the MEI peaks in the low 1’s while ONI peaks at 1.7-1.8 in the next couple of months

I was out of the country at the time, but wow did he really say that? To bash the euro on air is making a statement… and a correct one at that, it looks like.

I might go with a strategy to adjust colder analogs warmer by grouping all potential matches together, and then creating a second group that leaves out the older/colder cohort. I did this a few pages back for MEI lower than ONI by 0.5, and the forcing and precipitation patterns still turned out to be similar, except for temperature and the polar domain. That way we can tease out what other contributing variables drive the ao/nao and temps. Don’t know if this will work in a seasonal forecast, but I’ll test this strategy this year.

May have been something else that caused it to be blocky. I’m not sold on the IOD effect on the polar domain, I tried to find the correlations and they just aren’t there, even with lag. Also the 60s were cold. Probably the coldest decade in the last century to date.

It did last year, when Euro predicted a MA snowstorm while the rest of the models showed a cutter. Then the euro caved inside 5-6 days. We believed the euro because it was a good model. Now we know better.

Same, I’m at 1.7-1.8

Much better agreement… on a much needed soaker

Still a large spread only 2 months away from their projected OND/NDJ peak

I’m thinking the same. It would be better with a wave diving SE from the pna ridge and track NEward with a core cold air just to the north. Not an omega block like this

Yeah, or realistically, this would be a cold rainstorm because the low is tracking due north with the high 500+ miles to the east shredding the mid levels with maritime air. Like 97-98

12z canadian trended east, but still gives us 2” area wide. NAM is now the furthest west and wettest solution, EURO driest with nothing W of bay. If this was winter, oh boy

Yeah, and that happened a lot during the 1960s. Taking those analogs and warming them up by 3-4 degrees may get us a preview of what’s in store for winter. At least that’s my thinking for now.

We don’t. Sample size is tiny.

Same

Now we know why our winters have sucked lately. They keep jinxing them with these silly weenie forecasts

Not just that, but also further north with the SLP position at hr 84

I still think the CFS is overcorrecting. It’s very rare for a nino to peak this early. Slowing down? Yes. Instead of warming by 0.3 per month, we may go 0.1/month until november or so. Right now we’re at 1.6, so that takes us to 1.7-1.8. MEI could reach 1.0 give or take, then start decreasing a bit into the winter as the WPAC is projected to warm back up towards neutral or slightly above (right now it’s slightly cooler than normal). My analogs will likely include winters with MEI between 0.5-1, and if they go further back than 1990, I’ll adjust them up by a few degrees.