Terpeast
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Everything posted by Terpeast
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Short range op GFS insistent on a more neg tilt while Euro has trended more neg the past 4 runs. 3K NAM trended more neutral tilt in recent run, but its a meso model so not sure how much we should weight it on synoptic trends (probably none)
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Rain, 55
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Yup. This is a loaded STJ trained on us with plenty of ammo
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Models doubling down, getting interesting. Tomorrow we’ll be in nowcast mode. Feels good to be tracking something before mid-dec
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It would be a big win to get an inch on the board in the middle of a lousy pattern early on!
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The mjo entry into 7 got can kicked though, maybe that’s why the weeklies are showing what they’re showing now. But it’s still early and no need to get concerned unless we pass xmas and the models keep pushing the pattern change back
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Thats probably what the NWS offices do as well.
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Yeah, that's probably closer to reality given the sfc temps. Not trying to be a downer, but I'm always reserved on anafronts
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Looks like 1-2" imby with 4-6+ along the blue ridge
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They look the same to me. No real can kick. But they don't look all that great either.
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HRRR soundings suggest temps at 33-35 F west of I-95 towards route 15
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Looks like the 6z nam 3k had a bit of a hiccup. 12z looks a lot like 0z, just less overdone. Many people west of 95 might see some flakes if up early enough, higher elevations (including Mt PSU) may see an inch or two, more west of the blue ridge
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Yeah, I don’t think this is another 97-98 because the pac forcing is way different. It’s just the NA is too warm now, need to give it time to cool down
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Track is an app runner. No cold high to hold it off the coast
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I’m still not buying. BL temps too warm. I’m looking at TT and it appears most models took a step back with cold air progression
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Recent mjo got can kicked a few days to a week, though. But December was always going to be warm anyway. Still expecting Jan-Feb to be colder (near normal give or take a couple degrees)
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I remember, my cousin and I took a jebwalk out in that one. Will never forget it. And then it didn’t snow at all through the entire december, and we were complaining “it never snows here anymore”. Then…
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Well said man
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I think the NAM is overdone, but it sure feels good to be tracking something while it’s only dec 8. And we’re not even in a good pattern right now. Totally different vibe than last year
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Latest LWX AFD acknowledged snow might fall at lower elevations, but unlikely to accumulate with temps at 35-36. Let’s see if we trend colder though.
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I was going to say that. So yep, bring it on!
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Not saying this is a credible threat, but in order for this to pan out, yes we’d need that secondary LP to develop while the h5 trough axis lags behind fropa
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Yeah we’d need more of a -epo this early. It may not matter as much in Jan/Feb though
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That’s what I’ve been saying for a while. Some of our biggest snowstorms started as a wave in the north pacific while the mjo was in 7
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I think that’s the only part we’re NOT on the same page about
