Terpeast

This isn’t an east based nino. 1+2 is outmatched vs 3 and 4 in terms of absolute temperature, and the atmospheric response will reflect that.

New ONI at 1.3 for JAS

Low of 39. Ashburn

Just looking at the MJO phase areas, this could help suppress convection over the MC while aiding it over mjo 1 & 2. Unless we see a weird rebound effect. Should be interesting to see how that plays out.

Interesting changes in the last 15 days. 1) WPAC warm pool has cooled quite a bit, while nino 4 & 3.4 has warmed (though 4 has recently cooled while nino 3 warmed a bit). Could help -VP forcing shift a bit east of the dateline if this isn’t just a temporary blip. 2) Strong cooling off Japan as their season gets colder, leading the upcoming rise in the PDO. Also the “cold tongue” off the west coast of mexico has also warmed slightly. However, ssts off the U.S. West Coast are still cooling. We’ll need that to stop and reverse in the next couple of months if we want a sustained +PNA in Jan-Feb when it counts.

Low of 43

That’s what I’ve been leaning towards. I’ll do a full outlook in November when I get next month’s round of data and tighten up my analog group.

3.4 coming back up, made up almost half of the big Sept drop. Was glad to see the MEI come in at 0.6, which is what I expected. Next reading will probably be around 0.75 as long as 3.4 holds around 1.5 or so

Those charts don’t really make physical sense to me. Maybe just a wavelength shift by season? I saw some interesting correlations between a cold Oct / warm Nov and a cold winter, and vice versa. Think it was GaWx who posted that.

Good discussion in the main El Nino thread under weather and forecasting discussion. Bluewave is dropping value bombs over there.

Yeah I’m not worried yet, but it’s something to keep an eye on for the next 6 weeks or so.

While the euro didn’t trend in a positive direction, the gfs ensembles show a healthy aleutian low through most of the Oct forecast period. Worth taking into account when considering the competing enso and pdo:

Could be a classic N&W burbs winter. But I don’t like this trend.

So a 0% significance means that there is a 100% confidence level that warmer eastern US temp anomalies arise not from random chance, but from the mjo phase 6? if that’s the case, I’m not a fan of the way they use these significance #s. It’s confusing

Well, it must be if they bother showing that map…

Mother’s house in Vienna got 10” in Jan 2018 and 9” in Jan 2022.

Looking at phase 6, what does the 0% significance mean?

Agreed. As the 1960s and a winter like 09-10 showed, we don’t need the pdo to flip. We can get away with it being slightly negative

I think we also get a PDO rise in a different mechanism - the strong extended pac jet forms over a baroclinic boundary off Japan with cyclones and fronts responding to this, and as they traverse over the western N Pac, ssts will start to cool and the PDO will rise. Meanwhile we may see a +EPO dominant autumn with that jet, but even that’ll also help drive a little bit of a PDO rise over the US west coast (warmer ssts). The extreme negative PDO will be self limiting eventually. Been seeing a hint of this in the day 5-15 ensembles

Any chance you got the AS MEI update?

Note this jet originates from the warm pool off Japan. When the season turns colder from northern Japan on down, that baroclinic boundary will become powerful and fuel that pac jet on steroids. Exactly what I’ve been expecting to happen. It’ll take some time to work through that until they’re not so extremely warm anymore and the jet normalizes. Probably a few months.

It looks like a transition from east based to basin wide

That one’s also on my running list of analogs

Not the best sign, but do we know how much the water vapor contributed to the near-record +aao? Could it still have been solidly positive regardless had tonga not happened? Not sure there’s anyway to find out after the fact, but it may compete with -qbo while determining the average state of the AO this winter

Think I’ve said it before when debating with psuhoffman, December has never been a big wintry month even when I was a kid growing up here in the MA during a much colder base climate. December 2009, and to a lesser extent, 2002, were special.