Terpeast

I actually think its the other way around. Based on my top analogs so far (could change) I’m seeing a signal for a wet winter with a STJ. Whether that is accompanied by cold temps is tbd.

A storm out of the gulf in October would most probably be tropical, and el ninos tend to suppress hurricane activity in those parts. It’s getting quieter now. let’s get to mid January, and if we haven’t had anything come out of the gulf and no models are showing anything 2 weeks out, then maybe it’s time to get concerned

New 3.4 daily peak at +1.72

Low of 45

Ensembles showing a transitory -pna the last week of october, starting with a building ridge over aleutians/alaska. But what’s interesting is support for a rex block in the north pac, with a low/trough replacing that stubborn nina-like ridge north/NW of hawaii. Longer range shows additional ridging over the aleutians and west thereof, with continued troughing NW of hawaii. Will be interesting to see how the PDO evolves, and I’m thinking much less negative than it is now.

Thanks, it seems they use CDAS. The one I posted uses OISST, which I think is what is used officially.

Daily 1+2 has fallen below 2.0c for the first time

Maybe. I could care less what it does now. Starting Dec-Jan is when it really matters.

Yeah, this thing is gonna keep us guessing for another couple of months.

.52” total

Forgive my ignorance, but what is the RNA? I’ve seen you and 40/70 reference it a lot, but I can’t find any data or index in this link, and when I google it I only see stuff about genetics https://psl.noaa.gov/data/climateindices/list/

0.17” today

Nino 3 also had a bit of a jump today.

It was for California and Buffalo, but the rest? Not really

It’s still too early to worry about winter storm tracks this time of year. The fact that we’re having *any* EC storms now is a good sign, but only that.

The weekend rule is alive and well.

Too soon to call a peak with a new KW in the subsurface, and if we stay above 1.5 through most of the remaining 2 weeks of October, we'll likely end up with a 1.5 ASO value for ONI. Where it goes after that is anyone's guess. Either we have an early ASO peak at 1.5 (low end strong), or we have a later peak at around 1.6-1.8.

Wow, the 1950s must have been brutal for weenies... Then came the 1960s.

That's absolutely fair to say. Let's say we duplicate all the signals we were getting in 2009 into this year. In any other "normal" time, everyone would be optimistic like @nw baltimore wx just said. But after an awful 7 year stretch like the one we had, would we have that same optimism even if the same signals are staring right at us in the face? I'm not saying that's the case, but like I said in my other post, 09-10 is one of my top analog matches based on nino strength, structure, forcing, QBO, and even the PDO.

That’s going to be a lot of work and take a lot of resources. Near misses can happen both ways - cutters or suppressed waves. And a near miss for SNE can be a direct hit on the MA, and so forth. Not saying it can be done, just that it would need academic research plus reanalysis modeling. Minimum months, likely years of work.

How does that vibe compare to what we have now this year? I remember last year was pretty muted, we knew that it was going to suck (albeit not as hard as it actually did)

If this winter finds a way to fail, it won’t be for lack of storms. It’ll be the cold air

subsurface has been warming lately, no?

Yeah, that's what I was debating with bluewave about. I think ENSO is going to win out, even if it peaks moderate or low end strong. The atmospheric response will drive the SSTs instead of the other way around, and there are signs of this already happening.

Great work @griteater A little surprised that +PDO/+ENSO actually produced milder winters in the past. One thing that could explain this is the aleutian low being too strong and too close to the west coast.