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Terpeast

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Everything posted by Terpeast

  1. Terpeast
    Got access? Or still experimental?
  2. Terpeast
    Yeah if that new wwb holds east of the dateline we MAY get to 1.7 trimonthly
  3. Terpeast
    When we get the peak trimonthly average, we will likely see SON or maybe OND at 1.6. I’m calling this a moderate nino considering other competing factors.
  4. Terpeast
    Note most of those years listed above are el nino years. And this year we also have a neg QBO. So as hard as it's been to have a sustained -NAO winter, maybe this is the year we finally get one.
  5. Terpeast
    I noticed that blocking signal, too and addressed it in my outlook. I don’t know why we get a stronger signal on the atlantic side as a result of that -pdo/+enso pac combination, but it is there. And combine that with a -qbo.
  6. Terpeast
    To add, here’s @griteater’s excellent -pdo/+enso analysis. You’ll like this.
  7. Terpeast
    I’ll say this about the ongoing battle between -pdo and +enso… If the -pdo wants to throw up an aleutian ridge, we might see it keep getting amped and pushed east by aleutian lows. Then we may keep getting looks like this.
  8. Terpeast
    High of 55 today
  9. Terpeast
    Yeah, we just need to give psuhoffman an inch to get him to put down the logbook.
  10. Terpeast
    Agreed. Recent sst trends are a sign that the atmosphere driving them is shifting to a more nino-like pattern (I know some will disagree)
  11. Terpeast
    Good things I'm seeing is the cooling trend N of Hawaii + warming GOA and off W coast. Also cooling west of the dateline that might help shift forcing slightly to the east. Also an interesting Atlantic tripole-ish trend. It's a much better look than it was a month ago. Also some warming off Japan isn’t necessarily a bad thing. Because if we want an Aleutian low, we want upstream ridging over Japan and thereabouts. We just don’t want an extreme marine heatwave mucking up the entire pac.
  12. Terpeast
    Despite what others might have to say about the "base nina state" or -PDO in the main nino thread, this weekly SST trend is definitely what we want to see going into the second half of November. Cooling north of Hawaii, warming off GOA and west coast. Plus a boost between 150-170W just east of the dateline. Atlantic trending towards a tripole look if that makes any difference.
  13. Terpeast
    Mid-late november climo
  14. Terpeast
    I hear what you’re saying, but I think our average already has gone down and is going down and there’s no going back. I still put high chances of a decent winter, with lower chances of either a ratter or a blockbuster. I still lean towards it being a good winter because we have a nino that isn’t too strong and this is the best chance for a KU hit we’ve had in years. Chances are, that big hit if its going to happen is late Jan through Feb.
  15. Terpeast
    Yeah, an early inch really shouldn’t be too much to ask for near the md line away from the cities at relative elevation, even in a backloaded season.
  16. Terpeast
    Mmm okay. That radar looked good for an inch or so, but maybe a tad too warm or they got skipped
  17. Terpeast
    26.6 low, frosty
  18. Terpeast
    I checked for this definitive early correlation for KIAD, and it’s a bit murkier. But for places like yours, HGR and MRB - it makes sense. I’ll keep an eye on the northern tier of our sub. Didn’t they already get a little snow a week ago? Like an inch? Or less?
  19. Terpeast
    CMC also supports this. Still need the euro to get on board, but this is a much needed rain if it verifies
  20. Terpeast
    Some of these are reasons to temper our expectations, but an east based nino isn’t one of them. Based on -VP forcing plots, this nino is anything but east based. Forcing is very west-leaning
  21. Terpeast
    Did not make it to 50 today despite sunshine. 49.8 for the high
  22. Terpeast
    Great work @40/70 Benchmark I enjoyed the read, and thanks for putting so much effort into it. Your dad must have been a great man.
  23. Terpeast
    58 for the high, right on forecast
  24. Terpeast
    Moderate to strong. Not super.
  25. Terpeast
    BWI: 25.9” DCA: 17.2” IAD: 27.8” RIC: 13.0” Tiebreaker SBY: 14.5”
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