Terpeast
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Everything posted by Terpeast
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Temp dropping again, 35.6. Should be close to flipping Radar says I should be seeing very heavy precip, but it’s actually moderate. I think there’s some bright banding going on at 600-700 ft (I'm at 400')
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Ra/sn mix with some sleet. 36.1
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Now rain snow mix. Only could see it when I stick my arm out and I see wet flakes on my sleeve 36.3
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Down to 36.9, still all rain in ashburn
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After dropping fast, temp has been stuck at 37.5 the last 20 min
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I’m near you and I checked outside while under radar yellows, I didn’t observe any mixing
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Still rain, no mixing yet.
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I’ll go outside and check
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Down to 37.6
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39.9. Falling like a rock 1.14” so far
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Down to 41 already. Ashburn
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Yep, this is better.
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Down to 43.5. Seems colder earlier
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47, raining. Wind from the NE. High was 58. 0.9” total so far I’m debating whether to set an alarm for this one. I’m in Ashburn - yea or nay? both hrrr and euro has me at 1.5-2” total snowfall, but negligible snow depth
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Yeah, the whole board, not just this subforum, has punted the entire thing. It's December 10th, with a rain-to-snow scenario on our doorsteps from NC to Maine, and everyone seems to be capitulating.
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Is that HRRR 3k different from the HRRR on TT? Different outputs
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With the way the radar is looking, I think there will be lots of haves and have nots with snow. I’m sure radar will fill in as the sfc low forms and moves up the coast, but it won’t be an area wide accumulation event most likely.
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No, I just meant the regular GFS. Was looking 12-18 hours ahead
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Short range op GFS insistent on a more neg tilt while Euro has trended more neg the past 4 runs. 3K NAM trended more neutral tilt in recent run, but its a meso model so not sure how much we should weight it on synoptic trends (probably none)
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Rain, 55
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Yup. This is a loaded STJ trained on us with plenty of ammo
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Models doubling down, getting interesting. Tomorrow we’ll be in nowcast mode. Feels good to be tracking something before mid-dec
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It would be a big win to get an inch on the board in the middle of a lousy pattern early on!
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The mjo entry into 7 got can kicked though, maybe that’s why the weeklies are showing what they’re showing now. But it’s still early and no need to get concerned unless we pass xmas and the models keep pushing the pattern change back
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Thats probably what the NWS offices do as well.
