Terpeast

Noticed the canadian showing this. No support from the other models, but worth keeping an eye on. This is a very long shot due to lack of cold air, but last time we had a "long shot with not enough cold air" it snowed here and most people got 1-2".

Its roughly 2 weeks out when guidance hones in on the overall pattern, right? So we get to New Years, look at the guidance, and there's no sign of a better pattern, or a transition to a better one, two weeks out... that takes us to roughly Jan 15 with nothing on the horizon. That's when I'll start getting worried.

I wouldn’t say that just yet. January is still 3 weeks away, and a lot can change between now and then. But what I will say is if by the time we’re still looking for a good pattern by Jan 15 on the models, we cannot afford another can kick then.

Same sentiments. I really did think that the mjo would go into 7-8-1 because of those 30c ssts east of the dateline. And those warm waters run even deeper than the MC. I thought placing more importance on the impacts of MC ssts over the E Dateline ssts was misguided, but maybe I gotta rethink that. Again, I’m no expert on the MJO because we kinda glossed over it in my met studies. So that’s where my knowledge gap is, I guess

Low of 24

Yeah, and even if siberia is +15, it’s still extremely cold there.

I’m no expert, but it could be that powerful jet extensions are self limiting and eventually break down. They can’t keep on this fast and strong forever, otherwise the laws of physics would be broken

Yeah, it's better for the MA/SE to have a weak MJO than a strong one in any phase. Even a strong 8 might not help us (1998 is a good example). With super warm 30c ssts east of the dateline, we might keep the MJO weak and hold it there for a while instead of it circling back to the warm phases too quickly

Update to my outlook (no change)

December 11 Update - No change to outlook New MEI came in at ~0.6 today after a restrengthening of the El Nino. The PDO remains slightly negative with an unfavorable pacific profile dominated by a GOA low. However, the GOA low should retrograde and the pacific jet retracts sometime between Christmas and Jan 5, while the MJO weakens into COD. December will likely finish above normal for the Mid-Atlantic, which was to be expected. January and February might end up closer to normal, if not slightly above. February may end up being the colder month if the SSW event were to pan out, too. Last month, when the MEI came in much lower than expected at 0.3, I started to reconsider my snowfall probabilistic forecast. However, with the MEI increasing again, and the mid-Atlantic region having gotten on the board with last night's snowfall, I am leaving my outlook unchanged. I still maintain that we have a 60% chance of beating climo with 20-40" area-wide (lean towards higher end the more NW, and lower the more SE and/or within the cities).

Alright, great news! We're back in business!

Yeah I want to say that this has peaked, but last time I said that, it strengthened even more. So I’ll stay quiet lol

Yeah, I eyeballed half an inch at 6:30 am well after precip exited east of the bay. Temp had risen back up to 36. Heavily compacted like it was almost a layer of ice when I scraped my car. So it could have been close to an inch, max. LWX spotter reports had Ashburn at 0.5” as well. I got the lower end of the stick here, but happy that we pulled a rabbit out of a hat in a bad pattern early on.

12/11/23: 0.5" (an unofficial eyeball measurement, was heavily compacted already)

Yeah it would be nice to shake things up for the back half of the winter. But as last night's storm proved, we don't really need a SSW. The mid-atlantic forum pulled a rabbit out of a hat with some getting up to 4" under the best banding (many got 1-2" which is more than what was forecasted). This happened in a lousy pattern... and it just snuck up on us inside 3 days. And it's only Dec 11. We will have our chances despite a less than ideal pattern, and even more chances when the pattern improves.

I think the IAD value is valid, I’m 15 minutes NW of there and I got the same amount

I’ll run with 0.5”, matching last year’s total… on Dec 11

I’m up - managed to pull off a dusting. Maybe less than half an inch after some melting. I know others got way more. Congrats PSU who got 4”. Feels good to pull out a subforum-wide win in a lousy pattern! (Even if it wasn’t my own backyard) Great omen for this winter!

Anyone outside of the mountains ekes an inch out of this, I’d call it a win for this sub. I’ll live to fight another day. Will have other chances. Enjoy the snowfall for those of you who are seeing it. Night everyone! EDIT; just as I type this, I see a few more flakes falling without having to squint. It’ll snow as soon as I fall asleep, but it prob won’t stick

Similar elevation yeah, but you’re a couple degrees colder than where I am. PSW site shows mostly 33 there, but 35 here

I think this is a case of the haves and have nots. You’re in the former category. Happy for you. I think I’m just too warm down here. Will give it another 15-20 min then gonna bail for the night if it doesn’t flip by then. Someone else will have to measure in Ashburn if not me

Heavier precip now, but still haven’t fully flipped

Radar filling in nicely from cville to culpeper. We’ll need that slug to kick up the rates

Precip lightened up a tad. Hard to tell what’s falling now. Sticking my arm out feels like drizzle

Temp dropping again, 35.6. Should be close to flipping Radar says I should be seeing very heavy precip, but it’s actually moderate. I think there’s some bright banding going on at 600-700 ft (I'm at 400')