Terpeast

See, this is what I mean by the models not being able to “see” past the cutters. We have one in progress that’s powerful enough to induce planetary wave breaking , and its interfering with the usual skill level of models even 3 days out. It’s like standing on a beach and normally, you can see a couple of sets out towards the horizon that’ll bring plenty of fun rides to surfers in their lineup within a few minutes. But if an incoming wave is so high that it blocks your view of the horizon, you can’t see what’s coming until after that wave breaks. Similar idea.

One cutter down, one to go. Let’s see if models start getting into agreement on jan 16 by this time tomorrow.

2.06”. Not a lot of wind

Big disagreement between gfs and euro. I don’t think they can “see” past these two powerful midwest storms. We shouldn’t get invested in any potential solutions beyond the 13th at this point.

Just exceeded an inch

I think the GFS is probably a wee bit too far SE. it may trend closer to the coast, as did the 12z gefs

Yeah and thats why we shouldn’t get too invested until the second cutter is in progress and or so well modeled that it’s details are locked in

Sounds like 12z euro is the most amped of the 3 models this run. I noticed you tagged me on your question as to why we get a perfect pac and atlantic and the trough dumps SW and we get a SE ridge. I know you’re looking for an answer, but all I have to say is that I don’t know. I don’t have any answers for that.

Could be a wash because its more positively tilted even if more phased

12z gefs trended better and closer to the coast with more precip over us for jan 16

Just looked at all models - Euro 6z is more amped than GFS and CMC, but CMC did trend towards Euro/GFS. GFS 12z is close, but hasn't trended much in either direction. It's in the range of error/possible solutions at a week out. What we know is that 1) colder air is coming, and 2) there'll be a wave along the boundary. That's all for now.

I get why folks aren’t happy with this GFS run, but it’s a lot closer to a hit than they think. Still a week out, so definitely not the final solution (for better or for worse)

Doesn’t look like much, but won’t take much to create a follow up wave along that boundary either

Black Bear looks beautiful! Now maybe I can sell a snowy getaway to my wife on short notice if we have a storm on the way…

It’s still unheard of for our area to go 3 years in a row without any measurable snow (over an inch) so until that actually happens, I don’t believe it will happen. But, hypothetically speaking, if we really do get nothing this season, then the truth would be clear to us. La Nina, El Nino, La Nada, +NAO, -NAO… doesn’t matter anymore. We’ll start looking at 500mb maps not for snow in our backyards, but where to chase for the weekend. My next outlook will be built for family winter vacation planning purposes.

The next two systems are very powerful storms, and like WW said, I don’t think there’s any way to know what happens after that until the cutters actually clear the field. Maybe we get a better idea in focus once the first one reaches SE Canada.

Yeah, it looks suppressed this run. Not the worst problem to have at this range though

If it weren't for the kid, I'd move there! Ok, maybe not the one with the runway in my backyard. lol

Ok, the SLP position is fine, but I don't love the lack of a high to the north. It opens up for a cutter or app runner

Map? If the low pressure track is the same, then what's the problem?

I can't say conclusively because IAD data doesn't go back that far. So if I look at BWI data, that Dec 4, 1957 storm was with a high of 33 and low 29. If we warm that up by 4 degrees, we get 37/33. Maybe that 8 inches gets cut to 2-3" or becomes a mix/rain. That Jan clipper I think might still get us 1" because the cold air leading up to it was pretty cold with lows in the teens. But who knows. Feb 15-16, 1958 was a 16 inch storm for BWI with temps decreasing from 32 to 9 throughout the event. Plenty of cold before the event, too. I don't think warming this up by 4 degrees would have affected this storm if it were to happen today. March 19-20, 1958 was a 7 incher with temps between 33 and 39. Expect a rainstorm if it happened today. Don't know about IAD or points further west from IAD-BWI, might just be cold enough for wet snow in marginal situations.

Yeah I pointed out earlier how fast the mjo wave is projected to go, and once it gets to p7 we can expect a reload of a good pattern with an aleutian low returning for late Jan into Feb brooklyn’s weeklies show this too. Some big dogs start out as a wave in the pac during mjo7

Op CMC may look like a turd, but look at the last 4-6 runs. It's trended better and now looks similar to the GFS. We only need them both to trend a little better and maybe a bit more suppressed at these lead times. 0z ensembles looked good on all 3

This is correct. The 540 height line is usually different from the 540 thickness line because of the variation of surface pressures. But if the surface pressure is exactly 1000 mb, then the 540 height is the same as the 540 thickness line, where thickness is defined as the height between the 1000mb and 500mb pressure surfaces. Usually, though, sfc pressure is a little higher than 1000 mb, so you have this extra air under the 1000-500mb layer, so the total height from surface to 500mb would be greater than 5400m… UNLESS the column is so cold that the 500mb pressure surface shrinks vertically below 5400m. Why highlight the 540dm height line? I don’t know. Seems mostly arbitrary. Or that 1000mb is the closest pressure surface to the actual surface. Someone can probably explain it better than me. Or use ChatGPT

That’s a big shift. Makes it hard to dump the trough in the SW