Terpeast
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Everything posted by Terpeast
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Ensembles still look good for a pattern change on the 28th. Still no sign of a can kick
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Nothing here, just cold. Glad to see others getting flurries and snow showers though!
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No expert on GLAAM... but a lot of this is driven by the pac jet, no? So +GLAAM going towards neutral means that we'll see a bit of a retraction in the pac jet?
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2.57” total in Ashburn
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Just drove from Tysons to Ashburn, pouring. 1.2” here. Awful
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Low 39.9, now 43 and foggy
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Even if International Falls is +10, we can still hover near normal https://www.americanwx.com/bb/topic/58651-mid-to-long-range-discussion-~-2023/?do=findComment&comment=7085868
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I think it was probably me that triggered raindance into his ongoing 2 month tirade against 2009. 2009-10 came up as the best match in my analog set, but it still wasn’t a great match. I was clear that 2023-24 is going to be on an island of its own, and that 2009-10 just happened to be the best looking horse out of a poorly matched bunch overall.
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Low of 28.8 before the warm up
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And ensembles showing a colder look for entire NA. Canada at +5 instead of +15. Could be smoothing, but still a good sign
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I remember that. Maybe they do this retroactively
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Latest MEI is now 0.8, if anyone still cares. https://psl.noaa.gov/enso/mei/ My research shows that the MA had its snowiest winters when the MEI falls between 0.5 and 1.2, and then turns much milder and less snowy once the MEI exceeds 1.2.
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Yeah I was thinking the same. Not like Dec 2015 at all.
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It still is, but the abrupt changes only tell us that the models either have no idea what’s going to happen, or they are starting to key in on something.
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540 line shifting from canada to south VA. Big shift still has a pos tilt to it though
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21.9 for the low
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Surprised weeklies run daily now. And even though Iove how they look today, the fact that they’re flip flopping so hard hardy increases any confidence in them. Let’s see if they stick with the new look the next several runs.
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This recent -NAO late november, which model sniffed it out first? Gfs or euro? just curious
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Good, now lets see if EPS follows, and both hold onto this colder look for 2 more cycles
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May even lay down good snowcover up in Canada even - especially - when they're +20. Down here we're at only +3 on those runs. At the end of December, it's marginally cold enough
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The good news is that guidance is still doubling down on SSW in a few weeks or so. That may be the thing that shakes things up and gives us more blocking. Just that they’re not picking it up on the mid levels yet
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CFS shows a literal nina for next year
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Yeah, this year will be a good test case. Agree about grading ninos on a curve, but we will see how much CC shifts the entire curve. Sorry had to mention it. But I’m not giving up on this winter. Far from it.
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Just checked long range CFS, and it looks like we go right back into a nina with more of the same. And solar will descend, meaning more +NAO. This year is THE shot we have towards a good-to-great winter. Of course it’ll snow in other winters like Jan 2022, but this year is our shot at a blockbuster. We won’t get another shot at this for a while.
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For us, 8 in COD or weak, is actually colder than a strong 8.
