Terpeast

0z GEFS almost no difference at 120

Yeah, cold air shouldn’t be an issue this time. (i’m banking against the canadian)

I looked again, and this new gfs run does seem slower and develops the storm later

Not only that, but also the track and how the block evolves

For me, when the gfs and euro trend the same way, it’s a sign. But tomorrow’s cutter still hasn’t grown to full strength and cleared the CONUS yet. That will determine the strength and location of the TPV, and it is still TBD. While I had a moment of frustration with the trends, I get that we should expect a lot of wavering for a couple more days. Especially with this new trailing wave idea that the euro (and gfs?) seems to be picking up on. And this gfs run while further SE, if that s/w just digs a little more and tilts, we still retain the upside potential. We’re not out of this yet, but the goal posts are such that we can still whiff.

Nice to see a 2-4/3-5er but I really don’t like the trend. I’m concerned

Trend points to a rug pull

Looks SE from earlier runs today, but not as suppressed as 0z/11 i take that back, even more S

I’m on pivotal weather

Looks a little slower to me. Or flatter

Icon move its slp position 500 miles to the SE, lol I told you guys we shouldn’t be starting a thread until like Saturday

Got it, thanks for the clarification. Tangentially related, I read a couple of AFDs noting the suppressed 12z/18z euro track but called it an outlier and didn’t want to jump on it yet, just monitoring that trend for now

gfs trended opposite direction from euro today, but with 18z euro/eps that may have stopped. We’ll see what they decide to do next

Day 5 WPC. Look at when they issued it. They had to have seen the 12z euro before issuing

Just checked back at previous euro runs, and they all had that feature even when they had the closer track. So I’m less sure now that it makes a difference, unless the kicker is getting stronger and faster. The atmosphere up that way is pretty chaotic so I don’t think any of the models are right about what will happen up there. May be even more of a wildcard than the cutter’s evolution

Yeah I pointed that out earlier today. thing is, canadian had it too, just not as strong and further back. What the euro showed didn’t make sense to me

Back to jan 16-17, I’ll see what tonight’s NWS AFDs have to say. Will be interesting to see how much stock they put into the 12z euro

Yeah, so have I. I don’t know if I’ll even bother doing a full outlook for it unless either enso or pdo suddenly flip. Maybe a 4 bullet point outlook with a one-liner statement instead of a 30 page report. I’ll probably invest that time into planning a winter trip out west.

Maybe a trip to Spokane where my brother lives. They’ve been KILLING it with nina winters

GFS doubles down. Your move, Euro.

Looks a little slower, but we'll see

Haha yeah I gotta hand it to him, though. Heisy is sharp and picks up on things most of us don't see.

That answered my question. Good sign if it’s the furthest South of the ensembles

Is that the one next to the 13? and how do you know that's the OP?

I think I know why the Euro spit out a way different solution, and I think it's weird. I'll also show why the CMC showed something different, like a closer track with ptype issues. Euro has this trailing vort that's pretty strong, but never phases with the TPV. Instead, they stay separate, while they squeeze the positively tilted wave further SE. Too much confluence over us. The Canadian otoh has a weaker trailing vort that's further behind... either less relevant, or loses energy to the lead vort that closes off west of the mississippi. This is the other end of the spectrum vs. the euro. Less confluence up top doesn't help either. Now the GFS shows the cleanest solution. Where is that trailing vort? There isn't one. Instead we have tall ridging into NW Canada/Alaska. We have an open wave rotating under the TPV with more confluence to the NE. I don't know what to make of the trailing vort shown on the Euro and Canadian, and the lack thereof on the GFS. Maybe they're both picking up on something that the GFS is missing. But it's something to keep an eye on. On the other hand, the TPV seems to be well modeled and in fairly good agreement with all 3 models. I think the Euro solution is weird because the strong trailing vort and the TPV never manages to phase. From a physics standpoint, I think they should. But they don't.