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Terpeast

Meteorologist
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Everything posted by Terpeast

  1. Terpeast
    Wow, that is news. I guess I won't be using the MEI for future outlooks then. Might have to go with RONI or use my own custom dataset or something. Bring it on. I'm not expecting a winter next year imby, so might as well go ape with this nina and hopefully the strong trades push those cooler waters all the way into the maritime content / west pacific warm pool while we're at it.
  2. Terpeast
    Saw a few flurries yesterday afternoon and lots of wind this morning
  3. Terpeast
    Next winter the sfc temp anomaly may look pretty much like this map if the pacific doesn't change and we get a +qbo nina. Could be historically warm and snowless for the immediate east coast up to coastal SNE. At some point, we've gotta get a dip that breaks the climo trend. Don't know when that's gonna be.
  4. Terpeast
    It’s very likely too late for a lowland snow, but I’m interested in the AIFS test case, too.
  5. Terpeast
    And yet he understands more about the climate and its trends than most mets and atmos scientists do.
  6. Terpeast
    I’m not sure if it will be even as long as one paragraph!
  7. Terpeast
    10 days. Last 3 are warm, and that’s going to verify for sure. Maybe even warmer Crap, i was using metric (been overseas for too long) here’s the fahrenheit version lol
  8. Terpeast
    As a rule of thumb, if I don’t see cold/BN temperatures in all of the last 3 days within my apple weather app, we’re not seeing cold anytime soon. Following this ^^ rule would have been much more accurate than models.
  9. Terpeast
    We may hit 70 next week
  10. Terpeast
    Of course, I’ll be out of the country most of April. So it’ll be a fun month for everyone here.
  11. Terpeast
    The upside was much higher, yes… but in the back of my mind, my greatest fear was a warmer version of a 1972-73, which was the only match if you looked at the PDO and ENSO. There was always a non-zero chance for a ratter, and to be fair, most of our subforum did avoid a rat. We just fell short of climo and way short of the upside, where our expectations were.
  12. Terpeast
    Used a linear trend from the 60s to date, and then applied a warmer temp correction on the 2006 snowfall to today’s climate based on that trend. One one hand, 2006 wasn’t that long ago so the correction may not have been more than a degree or so. Otoh, linear trend by definition doesn’t account for nonlinearity nor any acceleration in warming. So like I said, I’d take the under on my own numbers. Could just have been 3” of slop instead of a foot+
  13. Terpeast
    Yeah, its over. Not enough cold air to make something happen outside of interier northern New England or maybe at 3,000+ Don’t worry, I’ll stick around for severe weather season!
  14. Terpeast
    They discontinued the op and now consider the control run as the new op. The AIFS is their new AI-based model. Will be interesting to see how it performs.
  15. Terpeast
    IAD got 8" (the best banding was to the east over Fairfax county through Columbia, MD) and I used two methods to figure what it would be today in a warmer climate. One still 8", and another drops it to 4-5". I'd take the under on 8" though.
  16. Terpeast
    It absolutely can. 2022-23 is looking like a decent analog match. Nothing is off the table
  17. Terpeast
    near total lack of cold air except siberia
  18. Terpeast
    I didn’t already know this. Good intel, thanks!
  19. Terpeast
    Yep. I’m working on the reward points now, should be able to get the new member bonus that’ll probably pay for our flights.
  20. Terpeast
    Living vicariously through you, though l’m starting to think you got more than you bargained for. Hell of an adventure. You’re getting pummeled! Keep posting pics and hope you get power back soon.
  21. Terpeast
    That’s what I’m thinking! Fly to Spokane, link up with my bro, and drive up across the border
  22. Terpeast
    The PDO isn’t the end all be all. It was solidly positive during 97-98. Carver’s Gap in his TN forum said that we may be at the beginning of a -AO/-NAO cycle, but I thought we’d be going into an extended period of +NAO given where we are heading into the solar cycle the next 5-8 years or so.
  23. Terpeast
    If it were just me, I’d do a pure snow chase with a last minute drive up to new england the night before. But with the family, probably best to combine with something else like visiting family and/or a ski trip. Some stuff for kids to do, too. Love Steamboat, but been there 3x. Feels like been there done that want something new.
  24. Terpeast
    Safe bet yes, and a very expensive one at that. If it’s possible to get a last minute deal at Tahoe, I’m all ears. otoh, I can go to Spokane for basically free using points, and if I chase to the cascades, it’ll probably be half the cost of Tahoe anyway
  25. Terpeast
    We’ll probably have to chase next year. I will be keeping an eye on where the best places are going to be.
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