Terpeast

IAD got 10” with that Jan 1964 storm Mood in this thread seems a little better now. I was afraid to open it this morning!

0.81” on the day 6.54” total MTD

I’ll say this. I’m not canceling winter and as long as we’re in a nino, I’ll never cancel it. Even if it means ‘winter’ will only be a one and done 18”+ storm. However, I think if we get to Jan 1 and guidance shows nothing of note through the 15th, it will at that point be safe to say that a 2009-10 or 2002-03 blockbuster is definitely off the table. We may get a 2014-15 or 65-66 style ending, though. So at that point, I’ll probably downgrade my outlook to 15-30” instead of 20-40” areawide (not including my DCA siting penalty). We can easily get 15-30” in one storm. ofc I’ll grade my outlook based on my original forecast, so it’s probably not going to earn an A.

Did anyone notice the 12z euro? I know it’s the op run, but look Cold high up top, gulf low brewing. It’s a miss, but it’s close.

Yeah, that’s when the colder air was supposed to come. That was always the first step. The real problem is whether it’s cold enough. It may need to come in waves to get it there

0.38” yesterday and 0.15” so far today. 46

Good research, and useful for when I retire and buy a place in the mountains.

It’s not that bad. Not a terrible look at all once Canada gets a chance to cool down until then

Canadian ensembles see it, too... if not a day earlier. They mostly skipped the Jan 3 perfect track rainstorm though (suppressed SE)

That’s been on my radar as well. Cold air availability is much better then (as long as it doesn’t trend warmer)

Gfs ensembles building W canadian ridge into Alaska becoming more -epo ish. It will be fine, so everyone take a breath. Let Jan 3 go. we can’t win them all.

It looks better after the 4th so far (the cold air)

Yeah, 2 runs in a row of this, and I’m starting to think that we’re paying the price of the canadian torch. Onto the next one.

The BL got even warmer this run, while 850s got colder

534 line way north, though. No dice

12z a bit south, 850s bit cooler. BL still torched on the onset. We’ll see if it helps the backend

Everyone in the NYC forum and many in the MA and NE forums are starting to do the same

To lighten up the mood with a non-serious comment... that same run does drop a couple inches of slush imby. Snowshoe gets 2 ft+ Chase anyone?

Ignoring the surface panel for a second - The 850 low tracks just underneath us. 700 mb low right overhead or just underneath if you’re north of DCA. thicknesses are 534-540 This is a mostly snow look. It may indeed start out as rain initially as there’s a trowal with ~0 air at 850 and a warmer BL, but with heavier rates on the backside with a north wind, that’s going to be snow. I think the surface depiction of ptypes are wrong. At least 50% wrong on the backside.

Rain, 43

Unremarkable xmas weather, high of 55 and now down to 41. Cloudy. At least it’s not a 70 degree torchmas

That was close.

FWIW 12z op gfs shows a bomb off the coast Jan 3. BL a tad too warm verbatim, but it’s very close. Jan 5-6 wave a bit weaker, but with better cold air. I think I’d rather have it switch places. Weaker wave with marginal air, then bombs away on Jan 5. Usual disclaimer: it’s the op gfs so this analysis is mostly just for fun

This morning’s ensembles show something on Jan 4-6, something coming off the gulf with cold-enough temps. Still a long ways away, lets see if that potential holds. Btw, Merry Christmas to those who celebrate! Happy Holidays all!

At least its not teasing us with 10-15” or 50%+ chance of 3”+ on day 15 like it did all winter last year