Terpeast
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Everything posted by Terpeast
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Same. The high looks to be in a better position
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No, I was seeing the same
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Yes, a bigger phased system would only have worked with a block that holds the 50/50 low down and keeps cold air close by. But for marginal in situ airmasses without a block, a weaker slider is what we usually want. Sure, a very dynamic storm can and has dropped heavy snow with big rates in a marginal airmass but that tends to be the exception
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Could just be the thing that helps us keep “just” cold enough air west of i95
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Just by looking at this, it seems like the 18z gfs is depicting a completely different synoptic setup than any of the previous runs.
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Looks like I’m gonna have another model analysis session tonight after this 18z gfs run. Am with the kiddos for now, but I’ll be popping in here to check on things
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Maybe. If the trailing wave merges with the one we’re looking at… holds it back a bit. I guess it’s possible if the NS wave strengthens more and gets us a refresh of cold air. But can it be done in 4 days? If we had 6-7 days to make it happen, it’s possible.
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Jan Medium/Long Range Disco: Winter is coming
Terpeast replied to stormtracker's topic in Mid Atlantic
While I'm really disappointed in the Jan 6-7 system (I started seeing the red flags yesterday with weakening confluence), this upcoming pattern - if it pans out - will have stronger confluence up top and a slower pac jet. We won't have trailing shortwaves mucking things up if/when we have a good one on the way. -
I don't think it matters at this point anymore. Maybe root for it to start at night after temps drop
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Back to where we were on the 31st, but still better than on the 30th. Do you have the same charts for IAD?
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I noticed a trend where strorms look stronger at longer leads and then become weaker
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More like, its the end of the first quarter and we’re down 14-3. We did get a field goal on Dec 11. Still plenty of game left
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The r/s line was too close that any north trend would kill it
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In the h5 charts I posted earlier, there were huge 500 mile swings in the western trough behind this system's wave. There's no way that detail has been nailed down yet.
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Even a 20 mile shift in the right direction would change everything, and we won't see it until close to game time. That's if the r/s line stays where it is and doesn't continue trending north.
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Great analysis, and that's what changed in the last couple of cycles.
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I don't usually go into the panic room, but... *sigh* Oh well, back to work
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I-95 west is not out of the game yet. Maybe we won't get an all-snow event, but we'll see how the mesos handle the thermals going in. A lot of the time, they bleed colder than the globals the closer the event gets.
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How the models shifted on H5 GFS: GEM: The Euro had an opposite shift from yesterday's 12z to today's 0z. I'll let you guys make your own interpretations.
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Oh I wasn't even looking at the snow maps. I was looking at h5 and slp tracks
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If you must look at the ICON, 12z is almost identical to 0z.
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I love Spain. Where did you go? I've been to Seville and Bilbao. Both cities are a total contrast from each other, really interesting. And during the afternoon siestas, entire cities go really quiet and almost nothing is open. When I was at the Madrid airport about to leave, it started snowing. It was March.
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In case anyone was wondering where I stand, that's all I was saying. Temper our expectations. Even the smallest trend one way or another can result in a drastic change in the outcome close to the fall line. Closer to I-81 will probably be fine and more immune to these shifts.
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Yeah, when I was looking at the 50/50, there isn’t enough of a block to hold it in place. What we DO have going for us is timing. Faster storm, most precip happens at night, and with the in situ airmass like you said, we may still thread the needle to get at least a few inches east of the blue ridge. Which would be a win in early Jan during a nino. And I wouldn’t also count out the back end precip as the low departs.
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Even on the GFS I see a trend towards a weaker and further east 50/50 low, thanks to the wednesday system being less amped off the coast. I’m trying to be positive, but the gfs seems to be hanging on by a thread thanks to that stout 1031 high to the north despite less cold air. Continue that trend, and this thing may slip away from us. Let’s hope things get colder in 96-48 hr lead times
