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Everything posted by Terpeast
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Jan Medium/Long Range Disco: Winter is coming
Terpeast replied to stormtracker's topic in Mid Atlantic
Better agreement with the op euro, at least with the fall line -
Bout of legit light snow
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White flakes sticking on deck furniture. Is that enough to count as a T?
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Jan Medium/Long Range Disco: Winter is coming
Terpeast replied to stormtracker's topic in Mid Atlantic
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Jan Medium/Long Range Disco: Winter is coming
Terpeast replied to stormtracker's topic in Mid Atlantic
I have to say the models did an excellent job with today’s passage of the 1/1 system. They locked into it more than a week ago. Let’s hope this accuracy holds. -
Very very light snow falling. Ashburn
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Jan Medium/Long Range Disco: Winter is coming
Terpeast replied to stormtracker's topic in Mid Atlantic
Have to agree with WxUSAF. This doesn’t quite have the markings of a 96/10/16 style HECS, but could still be a significant event for NW of the fall line. Max upside is around a foot for the lower elevs but with temp/ptype issues, the reality may be half that even with a favorable track. ETA: WPC seems more bullish though, so we shall see -
Jan Medium/Long Range Disco: Winter is coming
Terpeast replied to stormtracker's topic in Mid Atlantic
Gfs may have overcorrected with the SE trend (or it may be onto something) We have a little more wiggle room with cold air and the r/s/mix line, and that’s what we can say at this point. No complaints ( except maybe the Canadian) -
Jan Medium/Long Range Disco: Winter is coming
Terpeast replied to stormtracker's topic in Mid Atlantic
We need it. D5-6 is when models take a hop SE, then trend north as lead times continue to shorten. So that’s one thing we got to watch out for. But we do have things going against the last minute north trend - stronger confluence and better cold air. And the 1/4 lead wave never trended north, it just continued to weaken and trend south from D7 to D3, and I don’t see it changing much from here on out. -
Jan Medium/Long Range Disco: Winter is coming
Terpeast replied to stormtracker's topic in Mid Atlantic
These colder and SE trends are exactly what I hoped to see. Still time though. Lead 1/4 sw just now coming onshore in SoCal, so maybe the newer runs have better data? and Happy New Year! -
Jan Medium/Long Range Disco: Winter is coming
Terpeast replied to stormtracker's topic in Mid Atlantic
Tiny changes, r/s line wiggled a few miles southeast. Could be all it takes for this one! verbatim this looks like a pastebomb -
Jan Medium/Long Range Disco: Winter is coming
Terpeast replied to stormtracker's topic in Mid Atlantic
Jan 96 is my #1. According to obs from others I should have seen sleet or at least dry slotted, but I never saw a pellet and snizzled all through the slot which lasted only a couple of hours, then it cranked up again all night and all morning with legit blizzard conditions. Also the coldest storm I’ve seen, and call me crazy I preferred it over the 2009-10 storms. I was upset that not only DCA but also IAD lowballed their totals in that storm because I got significantly more and wanted that on official record -
Jan Medium/Long Range Disco: Winter is coming
Terpeast replied to stormtracker's topic in Mid Atlantic
At the risk of making a “water is wet” statement, I remember it being much colder, too. I have fond memories of the back to back 87 storms. -
Jan Medium/Long Range Disco: Winter is coming
Terpeast replied to stormtracker's topic in Mid Atlantic
Am with you on this. I’m surprised at the pushback as well, and pleasantly so at the guidance trends yesterday. We’re forgetting that 1/7 was depicted as a rainstorm with the 0 line all the way to the great lakes. This has indeed trended colder, and I’m hoping this trend continues. -
Jan Medium/Long Range Disco: Winter is coming
Terpeast replied to stormtracker's topic in Mid Atlantic
I was too little to remember much of it, but my mom STILL talks about it to this day, and she’s lived through all the blizzards here including from 79 through 16. I think 83 was her favorite and still has pics of it. -
Jan Medium/Long Range Disco: Winter is coming
Terpeast replied to stormtracker's topic in Mid Atlantic
And interesting to see a more pos tilt on that wave. As long as it doesn’t close off, it might delay the turn up north and keep i-95 in the game. Usually these things trend the other way -
Jan Medium/Long Range Disco: Winter is coming
Terpeast replied to stormtracker's topic in Mid Atlantic
Yeah, that first system is just off CA about to enter the conus. I don’t know if sampling is a thing anymore like it was 10-15 years ago, but I think @Eskimo Joe mentioned it a page or two back -
Jan Medium/Long Range Disco: Winter is coming
Terpeast replied to stormtracker's topic in Mid Atlantic
Just one run but with that gradient through my house… my front yard facing NW might get more snow than my rear yard -
Jan Medium/Long Range Disco: Winter is coming
Terpeast replied to stormtracker's topic in Mid Atlantic
Euro was all rain east of 81 at 0z and before that, so even 12z while not ideal is a reverse trend vs the gfs -
Jan Medium/Long Range Disco: Winter is coming
Terpeast replied to stormtracker's topic in Mid Atlantic
Gotcha, thanks! -
Jan Medium/Long Range Disco: Winter is coming
Terpeast replied to stormtracker's topic in Mid Atlantic
Any notable trends on the euro? -
Jan Medium/Long Range Disco: Winter is coming
Terpeast replied to stormtracker's topic in Mid Atlantic
From last night’s runs, I assume. It’s trended colder from 4+ days ago when it was depicted as all rain. So the actual verification might be somewhere in the middle. Too early to tell, but I’m not sold on this being a mostly snow event here. We don’t even have the first wave passing us yet, and that will partly determine the cold air setup here. -
Jan Medium/Long Range Disco: Winter is coming
Terpeast replied to stormtracker's topic in Mid Atlantic
I’ll say this. Even if this particular event doesn’t pan out as an i-95 special, this should give us reason to feel good about the rest of the winter. The STJ is relentless and unloading its ammo with no end in sight. All we need is to get more cold air on top of us. And 1-2 moderate/big hits is all we need to reach climo, plus another hit to get above. -
Jan Medium/Long Range Disco: Winter is coming
Terpeast replied to stormtracker's topic in Mid Atlantic
December has never been a big winter month for me growing up here. 2002-2010 was a massive fluke for Dec. Also the cryosphere delays the cold in the beginning while extending it at the end of met winter. -
Jan Medium/Long Range Disco: Winter is coming
Terpeast replied to stormtracker's topic in Mid Atlantic
Also, noticed that the system is slower with less NS interaction. We want it to speed up a bit to catch the best cold air.