Jump to content

Terpeast

Meteorologist
 View Profile  See their activity

  • Posts

    5,383

  • Joined

  • Last visited

 Content Type 

Everything posted by Terpeast

  1. Terpeast
    No. Don't. We got a good thing going with this thread. Starting a new one might be bad juju.... Unless the 18z/0z runs lay an egg on us.
  2. Terpeast
    Wow, the "upwards of 4 inches" language is new today
  3. Terpeast
    Yeah, I don't think we and the NWS are speaking the same language...
  4. Terpeast
    If we get 2-3", we'll be at around 7-8" including the December event, which is par for the course by this time of year. We'll need Feb & Mar to deliver the goods for us to beat climo. I still think there's good chance of that happening. But for now, let's focus on tomorrow and enjoy it.
  5. Terpeast
    Only thing about backing into another surprise performer is my daughter will insist on taking me out sledding even while I’m still sick. Better get to sleep early tonight so i can power through a 30 min sesh tomorrow and go back to bed after
  6. Terpeast
    The plot thickens…
  7. Terpeast
    Thats from the same run but two different time frames
  8. Terpeast
    Stronger coastal / early transfer really makes a big difference here. Amazing what a couple mb or a 50 mile shift south on the upper levels can do
  9. Terpeast
    Looks pretty reasonable. I'm just south of that C line in B territory, so 2" is a good target for mby. Hopefully it breaks right as you say and I make a run for 3". Just need that vort to stay a bit south and NoVA to work its radar backbuilding magic like it sometimes does in these budding coastal setups.
  10. Terpeast
    Yeah, and I think these model LR forecasts rely too much on the MJO. Well, the MJO are well within the warm phases this week and our sensible weather has been the opposite of what you’d expect. It’s not the end all be all like some are saying.
  11. Terpeast
    Now I have a real shot at 3 inches! Now lets see what the rest of the 12z models have to say…
  12. Terpeast
    A few weeks ago they were showing a mid-month relax/warmer pattern. And yet, here we are this week. Don’t have any confidence in LR beyond 1 week to 10 days.
  13. Terpeast
    Thanks, appreciate it!
  14. Terpeast
    WWA 1-3” for mby. Can’t complain
  15. Terpeast
    Low of 11, now 19
  16. Terpeast
    Now that’s what I call a screwjob. Everyone gets more than an inch and I get less. Life ain’t fair. I liked the h5 better though. Hope it’s the start of a surprise last minute trend. And I have covid. That’s all.
  17. Terpeast
    True. Best case scenario here is something similar to what happened with the last system where it beefed up moisture. I think this will be to a much lesser extent here. 1-2" with an upside of 3"
  18. Terpeast
    You forgot “obliterated”
  19. Terpeast
    Up to 24, minimal melting. Going to get a good refreeze tonight
  20. Terpeast
    Vort pass looks good where it is. It looks dry maybe because the model has a dry feed from the south. If that moisture feed turns out to be wetter, watch the snow amounts jump up quickly on that same vort pass.
  21. Terpeast
    Low of 8, now 9
  22. Terpeast
    Would take, but don’t love being on the southern edge. That’s never where you want to be. Just need the vort to dig a bit. Not asking for much!
  23. Terpeast
    Big difference on the same model
  24. Terpeast
    I don’t think that is a coincidence, tbh.
  25. Terpeast
    Never made it to 30 today. Topped out at 29.7 now down to 22
×
×
  • Create New...