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About clskinsfan

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    Winchester, VA

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  1. Long range MJO forecast is still really favoring 8-1-2 for the heart of the winter. A lot of the long range stuff is looking pretty favorable IMO. At least I dont think we will be seeing wall to wall torch this winter. And the storm chances should be there.
  2. Was out walking around all day today in the Harrisonburg area. Mid 30's all day. I was quite comfortable in all honesty. Kind of surprised how quickly my body adjusted to the cold temps.
  3. Had my first dusting of the year today. Off and on snow showers/flurries for most of the day. And coming down pretty well right now. Light snow 27 degrees.
  4. BWI: 27.5 DCA:18.5 IAD:30.5 RIC:16.0 SBY: 13.5 OKV: 35.5
  5. Happened out this way with Sandy. Mountains just to my SW got over 6 inches from it. High Res Euro is interesting for the 81 corridor next Friday. Just enough cold air left to get a little snow in the area before the flip to rain. Something to watch at least.
  6. First flakes of the season out in the Winchester area today. Kind of nice to have you guys to the east get some at the same time.
  7. Agreed. I am still thinking it is a Nov climo "event". Strong cold front with 15 minutes of snow. That is just normal for this time of year for our area.
  8. I would think it ends up the way we usually get our first flakes out here and that is with the frontal passage itself. Still time to work out the timing details on the waves though.
  9. Love seeing the Aleutian low showing up on guidance. Winter is on.
  10. Long range MJO forecasts all look pretty good still. With almost all of them running through 7-8-1 in the heart of winter.
  11. Which is a pretty normal time frame for those of us to the north and west. Usually from a frontal passage. The difference here is the follow up storm has a chance to be legit for a lot of us.
  12. I have been checking on the long range Aussie MJO forecasts the past couple of weeks. According to that 7-8-1 may be the norm this winter with some time in COD during relaxation periods. I dont think the long range MJO forecast is very accurate. But I could live with a pattern like that.
  13. Driving to Chicago tomorrow night. Will be interesting to see if there is any color up north. We had no leaf season out here this year. The driest September I can remember in my lifetime. Had some off and on drizzle today. That is all the rain I have seen in over 3 weeks.
  14. I actually thought Bastardi's write up was one of his better ones. The one thing I have learned over the past few winters is that even though we think we are getting better at long term winter forecasting we arent. Some of the signs of a chance for a decent winter are there. But they were there two years ago as well. And that winter was abysmal. Last year was a good year out here. I am thinking it will be even better this year. If nothing else the MJO should be better this year. The long range forecasting has it staying pretty favorable into late winter.
  15. The line matters a ton too. When we were younger we did Carnival, Royal and NCL a lot. Whichever was cheaper. And yes. Some of those cruises were shit shows. We have since moved on to Celebrity and it is just much more laid back. Anyway. Dont want to hijack the thread.