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AbsoluteVorticity

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About AbsoluteVorticity

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    Glenn Mills, PA
  1. It's a bad consensus this close to the event..
  2. Has trended to look awfully similar to the euro
  3. MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0060 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1144 AM CST SAT JAN 23 2016 AREAS AFFECTED...MD...ERN PA...NJ...SE NY AND SRN NEW ENGLAND CONCERNING...BLIZZARD VALID 231744Z - 232345Z SUMMARY...HEAVY SNOW WILL CONTINUE TO OCCUR OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS FROM MD AND ERN PA ENEWD ACROSS NJ INTO SE NY AND SRN NEW ENGLAND. BLIZZARD CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE MCD AREA WITH SNOWFALL RATES LOCALLY EXCEED 2 INCHES PER HOUR. DISCUSSION...LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS AN IMPRESSIVE UPPER-LEVEL LOW MOVING EWD ACROSS NRN NC WITH A POWERFUL 100 TO 120 KT MID-LEVEL JET ROUNDING THE ERN SIDE OF THE SYSTEM. A 987 MB SFC LOW IS LOCATED 190 STATUTE MILES TO THE SOUTH OF NEW YORK CITY. STRONG ISENTROPIC LIFT IS OCCURRING TO THE NORTH OF THE SFC LOW IN A BAND FROM SE PA EXTENDING ENEWD ACROSS SRN NEW ENGLAND WHERE THE EXIT REGION OF THE MID-LEVEL JET IS ALSO ENHANCING LIFT. IN ADDITION...FORECAST SOUNDINGS IN FAR SRN NEW ENGLAND SHOW CONDITIONS VERY FAVORABLE FOR HEAVY SNOWFALL WITH A DENDRITIC GROWTH LAYER FROM 500 TO 600 MB AND AN ISOTHERMAL LAYER FAVORABLE FOR AGGREGATION FROM 700 TO 900 MB. HEAVY SNOW WILL BE MOST FAVORABLE JUST TO THE NORTH OF A DEFORMATION ZONE LOCATED NEAR THE SRN NEW ENGLAND COAST. THE RAP KEEPS THIS DEFORMATION ZONE NEARLY STATIONARY WHICH SHOULD KEEP A BAND OF HEAVY SNOW IN PLACE WITH A GRADUAL NWD EXPANSION FROM NEAR INTERSTATE 80 IN ERN PA ENEWD INTO NEW YORK CITY AND ACROSS SRN NEW ENGLAND ALONG INTERSTATE 95. BLIZZARD CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO BE POSSIBLE THROUGHOUT THE MCD AREA ACROSS ERN PA...NRN NJ INTO THE NEW YORK CITY AND SRN NEW ENGLAND WHERE MULTIPLE LOCATIONS ARE REPORTING WIND GUSTS IN THE 35 TO 45 KT RANGE. ..BROYLES.. 01/23/2016
  4. Was anyone able to take a look at 18z GEFS? Any members sig. west of op? Am not able to look right now myself.
  5. Large area of low pressure moving out of that region causing pressures to rise dramatically, not necessarily a strengthening anticyclone unfortunately.
  6. For anyone that would like to believe the 24hr 11z ruc, we are very much in the game. 5H heights aren't quite as suppressive as the nam or gfs show. Has 3-4 inches of snow overspreading sepa by 6 am tomorrow.
  7. Exactly, I'm very surprised the qpf field did not respond to that.
  8. Eh..with a solution like that ttn south still probably gets 3-6 out of it.
  9. The trend is certainly not your friend here, MUCH deeper at 5H. Closer to a euro/rgem solution.
  10. At the linc right now, it is pouring snow. Over an inch already. Radar is looking very healthy..would not be surprised to see 4 inches by the end of the 4th quarter IF it stays all snow. Advisories/watches will be up shortly.
  11. 2.3" here in Glenn Mills, Pa Thinking we could hit 5" if all goes well..
  12. Nope...its usually very inconsistent. I don't put much faith in the rap past hour 9. Just ask the dc folks how it turned out for them on 3/6.
  13. After looking at 12z obs it seems that the NAM initialized significantly better than the GFS with regard to dewpoints at kphl. Not sure if this will translate to a better handling of the thermal profile tomorrow but just something to keep in mind.
  14. There is only one model that I care about...I refuse to let these other dipsh** models get my hopes up. If the euro comes in wetter and a little more amped then I may throw my heart into this one.