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Terpeast

Meteorologist
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Everything posted by Terpeast

  1. Terpeast
    Yeah, that's a stronger MJO 8 signal. Normally, I want it weaker and inside COD. But in this case, we don't want it to collapse into COD and then reemerge into the warm phases. So for this year, we want it to stay stronger as we circle through the cold phases. It may not contribute to giving us deep arctic air, but we don't need it to get that cold even in late February.
  2. Terpeast
    At this point I’m wondering if the Feb 19-20 system is just the appetizer for the next one. We might get something from it, or at least reinforce the cold air from that point on
  3. Terpeast
    The only way we stay dry is suppression, and suppression will only happen if the waves passing by are weak/sheared, or if we have a record breaking block over central/south Canada as is the case for feb 5-6. I don’t buy it with the eps look brooklyn posted
  4. Terpeast
    Either it means the eps is right and we stay dry, or it just hasn’t picked up on the signal that gefs/geps already has. I’m thinking the latter is more likely.
  5. Terpeast
  6. Terpeast
    MSLP anomaly plots show a signal feb 19-20 per 12z gefs. GOM low forming. Geps also shows this, but more muted
  7. Terpeast
    Not worried about suppression for now. Storm tracks almost always shift further north as they get closer (as long as there isn’t an omega block right over us). Sure someone may get hit in NC or even northern SC in one of those threats, but the primary storm track won’t set up that far south.
  8. Terpeast
    Case in point, take away that 80 degree day would lower our Jan average by at least a full degree. We’d have been closer to average
  9. Terpeast
    Yeah, like I said I’d be disappointed but happy about that mid-Jan wintry week. Both my phone and laptop has 100s of photos and reels to carry me through next winter, which at the moment I consider cancelled.
  10. Terpeast
    Just checked the calendar for something work related… and couldn’t help but notice that Feb 23-25 falls on a weekend.
  11. Terpeast
    Don’t be surprised folks if the next euro control run shows nothing or rain 20 days out. As long as we have the pattern and it moves closer in time, we should be fine
  12. Terpeast
    Not really, no. Not with support from a background pattern like the plots we're seeing for mid-late month
  13. Terpeast
    It does also mean we have a legit shot at a MECS/HECS, which is something that couldn't be said for the last 8 years.
  14. Terpeast
    Right rear entrance of northern jet + Front left exit of southern jet = double jet signature!
  15. Terpeast
    Look at that 50/50 with an incoming STJ wave. Canada no longer torched, should be cold enough to snow from NC north
  16. Terpeast
    I think it has gotten a lot more competitive now than in my generation overall, but there was still decent competition in my age group. My 50m free was in the low-mid 24s and 50m breast was 32 something. I don't recall my 100m free time because it was a long-course pool and I wasn't used to that, so I had a bad race. But the 100y short course was low 49
  17. Terpeast
    Nice, you're doing great! Mine was free and breast, and like you I was a sprinter. 50/100m events were in my wheelhouse. Made it to state in my junior and senior years Now all this discussion about swimming is starting to get me motivated about it again! Not gonna dive into Masters or anything, but just to get things going a little bit more. I sit too much for work!
  18. Terpeast
    Swimming is great. Used to do it competitively. It just takes more time to drive to a pool, change into my suit, and do enough laps to get enough cardio benefit, and then change and drive back. But I’m definitely keeping that option open
  19. Terpeast
    I wouldn’t go that far. I have folks on my ignore list and EJ isn’t one of them. Pessimistic, maybe. But he’s provided a lot of value with the mesonet stuff.
  20. Terpeast
    Good day to go out for a nice long run. I love cold, but I hate exercising out in it, and the rowing machine is getting a little boring
  21. Terpeast
    Not at all. Get the cold here first, then bring on the STJ parade
  22. Terpeast
    Yep, 850 starts to flip BN on the 14th - remarkably consistent over the past week’s worth of runs. Then by the 16th they get pretty cold.
  23. Terpeast
    No change to pattern timing, but the “wait” just keeps getting warmer. Hopefully it’s just a product of sharpening the wave features leading up to the pattern change
  24. Terpeast
    Yeah I was half expecting to see it fall apart and get replaced by a SE ridge. Was anything but.
  25. Terpeast
    Checked the models… no change. I guess we’re either enjoying the trip down memory lane while we wait
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