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Terpeast

Meteorologist
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Everything posted by Terpeast

  1. Terpeast
    3" 10:1 E Loudoun at 14z and still snowing (20z HRRR)
  2. Terpeast
    Temps - I'm at 47.5/47 atm. Long way to go.
  3. Terpeast
    Yep. He was saying that nat gas futures were indicating a warm winter ahead. I thought that was odd, yet here we are.
  4. Terpeast
    Seems to be theme of this winter
  5. Terpeast
    Bring it on, what's good for W Loudoun is also good for me even though I'm just a stone's throw across the eastern side of 15
  6. Terpeast
    "Up to 2 inches" WWA for eastern loudoun. Reasonable call
  7. Terpeast
    18z 3k NAM IAD sounding right when it flips
  8. Terpeast
    At this rate, this will be a EZF-RIC hit (half joking)
  9. Terpeast
    Yeah, maybe we should've listened to Chuck. If you can get past the Chuck-speak and really understand what he's saying, you'll see his uncanny ability to make calls that seemed farfetched and then come true later. And we did get a beast -NAO block in January... it was surprising how quickly it fell apart.
  10. Terpeast
    Agreed. Even 2-3" would be a steal considering how this system was depicted in the weeks leading up to now
  11. Terpeast
    HRRR sounding at IAD for 12z tomorrow
  12. Terpeast
    I don’t think this is right, but…
  13. Terpeast
    Oof, that eps run
  14. Terpeast
    Wouldn’t be surprised to see a WWA in the next tier of counties south of the current WSW
  15. Terpeast
    12z euro shows more snow for the metros than 0z/6z, though that’s not saying much. Just 1” verbatim for mby
  16. Terpeast
    Looks good. Reasonable. I love how the GFS has 10"+ across the river from me, with me getting almost nothing. This thing is gonna come down to rates.
  17. Terpeast
    They went pretty low. Curious as to what's their high end call is
  18. Terpeast
    Agreed. I think the 12k tends to overestimate snowfall and accumulations in marginal situations. I would think that the higher resolution 3k would capture the lower BL and microclimates better, and if the lower BL is a degree too warm then the 12k can easily miss that. The 3km HRRR on the other hand...
  19. Terpeast
    Just before the commute I think
  20. Terpeast
    I think in this case it comes down to the upper level low track
  21. Terpeast
    3k nam holds onto rain as the ptype for the metros, while 12k is much snowier. It’s going to come down to rates.
  22. Terpeast
    H5 vort track and strength look similar to me on both. Different qpf maps sure
  23. Terpeast
    CAMs were the first to catch on for both Jan events. Can they score a hat trick here?
  24. Terpeast
    Now that is a beatdown (whether it verifies is TBD)
  25. Terpeast
    Interesting how the globals and cams are so far apart on snowfall amounts in this sub less than 24 hours before the event
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