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Terpeast

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Everything posted by Terpeast

  1. Terpeast
    When was the 19th and that week in play? If I remember correctly, there was going to be a dry period as blocking strengthens. It peaks around the 20th, and then that’s when our chances start. Nothing seems to be slipping away for me. And our 850mb climo is still -3 in late Feb, so we’re still fine
  2. Terpeast
    EPS lighting up GEFS still washed out for that period, GEPS too
  3. Terpeast
    To support this point, I saw 3 “waves” of interest on the ensembles a couple days back. One is the feb 13-14. The other two came later but were too close together that I read it as disagreement among ensemble members. Now they seem to be consolidating into better agreement on that third wave.
  4. Terpeast
    My inner weenie says “last time we saw a blend like this, it went south and we got hit. Twice in a row”
  5. Terpeast
    Even closer to a phase, but looks weird. Still liking where we are now
  6. Terpeast
    Judging from the trends, the slower this system is the better it is for us. Faster means warmer in this case. Not sure which way this is going to eventually break, but I don’t like being on the southern 1/3 of the snow area. Learned that lesson on Jan 7
  7. Terpeast
    Gotta go pick up my daughter now... will have to rely on you guys for the pbp
  8. Terpeast
    I think we'll like this one Similar to 06z, but with better ridging out west
  9. Terpeast
    NS seems slightly faster, but too early to call
  10. Terpeast
    Well at least the op has ensemble support. I'd be a little more excited if the GFS has been performing better. But it's been pretty bad, so. I'd give it another 24 hours of all model runs and watch the trends closely.
  11. Terpeast
    Let's temper our expectations. The GFS is on its own with the snowy solution. CMC did shift further south, so maybe it's onto something like resolving the s/w spacing, confluence, etc. Need to see the Euro blink, though
  12. Terpeast
    Checked guidance this morning... Nothing has changed. The waiting is the worst part. Cliche but true
  13. Terpeast
    It’s part of the weenie handbook. Sacrifice storm X to get storm Y. Not worth entertaining another thought, though…
  14. Terpeast
    Are we cliff jumping because of… one op gfs run?
  15. Terpeast
    I count 3 potential waves, which could turn out to be 2 in reality. Likely the first (19-20th) and third (23rd that PSU has been harping on)
  16. Terpeast
    -epo and 50/50. Temps the least of my worries
  17. Terpeast
    Gfs turns this back into a cutter, like it was showing a week ago.
  18. Terpeast
    Always a chance we get a lucky shift south like we did with the second Jan storm, but I don’t think this is it. We don’t have a PV or any arctic front pressing things south as the wave approaches to begin with. I’m more interested in the feb 18-20 window
  19. Terpeast
    24.8 for the low. Classic cold winter morning
  20. Terpeast
    Just need to delay this wave by a day to give cold air enough time to get here. Outside of the 0z run yesterday, Gfs is still faster than euro/cmc. But running out of time for big wholesale changes. Minor shifts here and there won’t get it done for us
  21. Terpeast
    I’d go with 8-12” i-95 and 12-18” west towards blue ridge and i-81. But this is specifically for DCA, so I voted 5-8” as a siting penalty
  22. Terpeast
    Not really, contour lines show a neg tilted ridge over the west with an undercutting trough. This is how we usually get big storms. The +pna ridge usually builds behind the storm
  23. Terpeast
    Block looks stronger to me on the gefs Closer look at trends says not really, but not weaker either. Just sharper and clearer
  24. Terpeast
    Biggest takeaway has nothing to do with thermals... only that the models may just now be starting to pick up big threats at range.
  25. Terpeast
    Yep, we have a much better shot at 2/17-18 than the one before it. Agreed we need a phase for that one. But it's close.
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