Terpeast

Yeah, that'll be what it takes for us to beat climo by a decent margin. Add one more SECS and we'll put this as one of the better nino winters in the books.

Insane!

that's only up to Feb 15. The real fun should begin then, not likely before

I originally had this pegged as a cutter, but if we can get any frozen out of that, it’d be a big win before the best pattern comes.

Well, we had that first SSW a month ago and the mid month blocking was strong, then it fell apart so quickly. Maybe this time will be different, but the polar domain is a bitch to predict more than 7-10 days out.

Checking the ensembles is becoming part of my breakfast routine. Coffee. Check the H5. Eat. Check MSLP anomalies. Drink more coffee. Zoom out and check the jet’s behavior. Eat. Finish my coffee and post my thoughts here: Everything is on track. No signs of a can kick yet. The “flip” happens from Feb 12-15. I think we will see at least one cutter, maybe two, that brings the wave breaker inducing the -NAO while the aleutian low begins to pop. Don’t panic when I say “cutter”, I know we think they are the enemy and they are during La Ninas, but strong cutters can be our friend as they deliver the cold air to set things up. We saw this happen for the mid-Jan wintry pattern. We will likely see this again for the upcoming mid-late Feb pattern. No certainty that it’ll stick through march, but ensembles are in lock step for cold air delivery with a split flow pattern and a strong STJ.

Mostly rain with some wet snowflakes mixed in

Ah, I was looking past that one!

Gfs and canadian ensembles look the same. There’s not much to add to what’s already been said

Folks. This is it. This is our best shot at a KU in 8 years.

Cold air is on the way. Feb 1 (top) vs Feb 15 (bottom)

12z gefs shifted south for feb 5, geps shifted north.

Remains a long shot, but still a non-zero chance. Not a great idea to get too invested, but worth keeping an eye on for any north shifts, especially by the gfs.

looks plenty of cold air from rockies to EC if this verifies

Good sign that it’s staying around feb 14 or even moving a little forward in time

Now that is a much better -NAO look

President's Day window. Probably our last shot at the Big One as those have historically happened during this time frame. After the 20th, we'll be swimming upstream. Can still score then, just the max upside gets a bit smaller.

GEFS quickly turns cold starting on Feb 14. This is our new target. It may have shifted a couple days later from a week ago, but we're at the point that we cannot afford another delay, however minor it is.

Yeah, I still think we have a shot at beating climo and all it takes is one storm. NYC & north are SOL at this point, though.

Tbf I don't think most of us are panicking outright. We're just starting to see what's really under the hood (using Bob Chill's words) behind the smoothed H5 means. A week ago, or even a few days ago, it was looking like the fun would begin around Feb 10. Now we're looking at Feb 14-15, and the window of opportunity is starting to get narrower. The clock is starting to run out on us, is what we cannot deny. Sure, we could go on a 2-week heater between Feb 20 and March 5 and beat climo by a large margin - that can still happen, and I WANT it to happen. But again, I wouldn't be surprised if that window gets narrower and narrower with time and we score only one moderate event until the next wave of warmth, by which time it's over or nearly over.

Same page. It ain't over till it's over, but the fat lady is starting to warm up her vocal chords... is where my head's at now. I'm glad I milked the wintry week by taking pics, videos, going sledding with the little one (despite being sick at the time). I have a bunch of reels I could re-watch all year.

It's alright man, there wasn't much to ruin to begin with...

Upside is what the CMC showed yesterday. But I think that path is closing.

I hope you cherished that week. I did to the fullest, and if this winter ended today, I’d come away with that magical week satisfied. Not happy with my snowfall forecast and falling short of KU potential, but I’d be content with the best wintry week we’ve had in years.

Not quite cold enough by this point, but getting there. Maybe a day or so later it’ll be NN slightly BN