Terpeast

President's Day window. Probably our last shot at the Big One as those have historically happened during this time frame. After the 20th, we'll be swimming upstream. Can still score then, just the max upside gets a bit smaller.

GEFS quickly turns cold starting on Feb 14. This is our new target. It may have shifted a couple days later from a week ago, but we're at the point that we cannot afford another delay, however minor it is.

Yeah, I still think we have a shot at beating climo and all it takes is one storm. NYC & north are SOL at this point, though.

Tbf I don't think most of us are panicking outright. We're just starting to see what's really under the hood (using Bob Chill's words) behind the smoothed H5 means. A week ago, or even a few days ago, it was looking like the fun would begin around Feb 10. Now we're looking at Feb 14-15, and the window of opportunity is starting to get narrower. The clock is starting to run out on us, is what we cannot deny. Sure, we could go on a 2-week heater between Feb 20 and March 5 and beat climo by a large margin - that can still happen, and I WANT it to happen. But again, I wouldn't be surprised if that window gets narrower and narrower with time and we score only one moderate event until the next wave of warmth, by which time it's over or nearly over.

Same page. It ain't over till it's over, but the fat lady is starting to warm up her vocal chords... is where my head's at now. I'm glad I milked the wintry week by taking pics, videos, going sledding with the little one (despite being sick at the time). I have a bunch of reels I could re-watch all year.

It's alright man, there wasn't much to ruin to begin with...

Upside is what the CMC showed yesterday. But I think that path is closing.

I hope you cherished that week. I did to the fullest, and if this winter ended today, I’d come away with that magical week satisfied. Not happy with my snowfall forecast and falling short of KU potential, but I’d be content with the best wintry week we’ve had in years.

Not quite cold enough by this point, but getting there. Maybe a day or so later it’ll be NN slightly BN

Honestly I’d have preferred it to shift west so they could phase and bring down enough cold air for it to snow.

And I don’t see any potential for wintry weather until VDay and beyond. My target was Feb 10-12 a week or so ago, and this is the first sign of a can kick, even if its by just a few days. Clock is ticking. Think I was right to revise my snowfall forecast. Another minor/moderate event might get us to the low end of my forecast. Otherwise it will be a bust. Hope I’m wrong, but things seem to be trending that way.

If the temp issues don’t get resolved soon, this may just be the perfect track rainstorm that goes into PSU’s logbook (and I’m one of those who don’t think Jan 7 really qualifies) Still time.

Eh, just loop back a few runs and they’re all vastly different. Models have zero clue how to handle this block right now

Yep just saw that. This is not done changing yet.

Something to keep in mind about model performance thus far this winter when tracking patterns/threats in Feb: https://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/users/verification/headlines/acc_31days/ GFS not doing well this year. Euro the best, with Ukie and Canadian very close behind

We’ll see with 0z nam 3k, but I think this one is DOA

Same, 1.6” total

18z gfs - similar sfc map for feb 4-6, but big changes on h5. Large scale trends are yet to come

Good catch! I didn’t notice it

I was once up in western NY with 3-4 feet of snow already on the ground, and we got a decent but brief snow squall. I tried to pretend for a moment that it had just snowed 40 inches in one day… but it just didn’t feel the same as a homemade snowstorm.

No changes

ULL is west on 12z EPS, still quashes the ss wave but getting closer to a phase. If this is a new trend, we’ll want to keep it going to get them phased. But like Heisy said, large scale changes are still likely to happen

CMC doesn’t have ensemble support GEFS sticking with the suppressed idea, but are north of the op Op euro 12z same as 0z, but no confidence because it moved the TPV 1,500 miles from yesterday’s 12z We’ll see what the EPS has to say I did notice something though. In order for feb 4-6 to work for us, we need that omega block to close off into a rex block. Rather than an open block that crushes everything east of it, if we have a closed upper high over S Canada, that might give the ss wave extra room to come north.

Yeah, we just need part of that TPV to phase with the ss wave. That’s the path to victory on Feb 4-6 My gut feel is that other models will come north

And if it’s going to come directly from the NW, that really wouldn’t work for mby. Due west? Maybe - its happened before plenty.