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Terpeast

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Everything posted by Terpeast

  1. Terpeast
    When I have low confidence in the ops, I lean on the ensembles and 850s drop fast between 140 and 170 hours, with us going under 0C between 156 and 162, but both EPS and GEFS have precip ending or winding down by 162 hours. Again, it's a long shot and we probably get rain either way.
  2. Terpeast
    For now it's a perfect track rainstorm, but the height and thermal fields up north have poor continuity run to run with the GFS so I think the GFS is struggling with it and the western US fields. Those pieces keep shifting 500 miles one way or another. Zero confidence forecast 7 days out, as is often the case with pattern changes.
  3. Terpeast
    Less confluence
  4. Terpeast
    6z was an open wave, but both 00z and 12z are closed h5 lows in TVA... 12z is just a little ahead
  5. Terpeast
    141, hanging further back... I take back my 06 vs 00z statement
  6. Terpeast
    H132 looks more similar to 06z than 00z
  7. Terpeast
    Hanging back a bit more at 120. Still not sure...
  8. Terpeast
    It appears we have 2-3 waves of interest: The 13th, 19-21, and 22-23. The latter two may actually only be one storm, just disagreement among ensembles on timing. There will be a break of dry weather between the first two waves.
  9. Terpeast
    Ah yea, gotcha thanks. Just compared the latest ens of all 3, now I see the gefs being the weakest with the block
  10. Terpeast
    By red flag you mean too much of a good thing? I tried checking the 48hr 500mb trend on TT but it won’t show it
  11. Terpeast
    Maybe he’s right. But it’s always been showing a cutter, as is the Euro currently. We’ll see if gefs is out to lunch or is onto something here
  12. Terpeast
    Have to say gefs has trended south for feb 14 the last several runs, so that is an interesting development. Not on board yet, but I am now watching this one instead of disregarding it as a cutter
  13. Terpeast
    I think 2/13-14 was always going to be a cutter that brings about the pattern change, not one of the waves of interest AFTER the cold gets here
  14. Terpeast
    And there it is:
  15. Terpeast
    Low of 27 this morning. Wife heard the birds chirping outside. She said "winter's over", and I responded "I don't think it's over yet." I hope I'm right, so I can say "I told you so"
  16. Terpeast
    Yeah, this year is the best year to swing for the fences. But keep in mind we have had couple of near misses. One in Jan 7, which had temperature issues and a track too inland. Couple degrees colder, it would have been a warning-level SECS maybe a low-end MECS. I was pretty disappointed in that one, and led me to lower my expectations a smidge. Another one was when Nova Scotia got pounded recently. This wasn't a "synoptic miss" in the sense that the track was 200 miles too far south, or a "mesoscale miss" with best banding 50 miles too far north... this was a planetary wave miss of about 500 miles (which isn't much at that scale) as I mentioned earlier. Move that omega block 500 miles west, and get the NS wave to dig in the tennessee valley, and we'd have gotten that HECS.
  17. Terpeast
    It’s not just Nina, but the QBO will likely go back positive, and we might have maxed out on solar and start the descending cycle then. Purely based on these variables, I’m not optimistic except for a winter trip out to Whistler. Sure we can get lucky with one storm like Jan 2022. But that’s all a year way. Back to your regularly scheduled pattern change tracking.
  18. Terpeast
    Put this way. If it can snow significantly in March like 2014, 2015, 2017, 2018 and 2022 (and multiple years pre-2014 notwithstanding), then it almost certainly snow big enough to surpass climo by a big margin in late Feb through the first week of March.
  19. Terpeast
    I’m not all that worried about BN precip, because if we’re on the north side and when its cold, we can still get a decent snowfall out of it without any mixing issues. HECS? Maybe not, but something that gets us to climo before we get another shot end of feb-early march. Still can have a wave miss us to the south, and if it does, it is what it is. There will be multiple shots.
  20. Terpeast
    Surface temps only matter during precipitation events. I only look at 850mb temp anomalies at range, since those tell us where the anomalously warm and cold airmasses are or are going. Saying that surface temps are warmer than 850 temps as far as anomalies go is a bit misleading, though. This would hold true if it’s a bright sunny cloudless day, especially with no snowcover, when you could have cold 850mb temps but with dry adiabatic mixing you’ll probably reach average or even slightly above at the surface. But if it’s dry and sunny, who cares. Take the same 850mb temps during a precipitation event, you’re almost certainly getting snow. That’s when we’d check the sfc temps, or better, the soundings. The poster who said that may be a good researcher, but he conveniently left all of the above out.
  21. Terpeast
    And maybe we’ll get what Nova Scotia just got
  22. Terpeast
    I don’t know if you guys realize this but we just had a close miss. This could have been us if the omega block was displaced 500 miles west. (It was that weird clipper that dived from the NW and it was DOA when it got here, but it went nuclear as soon as it went neg tilt before Nova) At least we have another shot later this month
  23. Terpeast
    Nova Scotia crushed. 5 feet and more on the way https://x.com/ChuckWrathall/status/1754248252810047560?s=20 Had that Big Omega block been placed 500-600 miles west, this could have been us (DC to Boston) 500 miles is a very close miss in the global scheme of things…..
  24. Terpeast
    Good theory, which may well be tested next winter. But I don't think a super nina will help with the west pacific warm pool. The trades will just concentrate all those warm waters and push down the thermocline even deeper. Then it'd be hard for even cloudiness and convection to cool those waters, even if it sustains itself long term.
  25. Terpeast
    Yeah, I don't think he deserves any credit. He was saying 2.3 for so long, and there's always the "broken clock is right twice a day" thing. Just like I was off on the ONI prediction and my call for an early peak. It peaked much later, and I was about 0.2 too low. But I based my outlook on the MEI, which last I checked was 1.1. I still don't know if the MEI is a good seasonal forecasting tool though, maybe RONI is better.
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