Terpeast

It wouldn’t actually surprise me if December turned out to be our best winter month this year. The hope I hold onto is that it hangs on through part of January allowing us to get in on some action. October will tell us a lot more about where this thing is headed. @psuhoffman Have a great trip!

New CFS just came out, and boy it’s ugly. I mentioned watching the waters off the west coast, those ssts have cooled back down as the WPac marine heat wave got even stronger. I’ll do a brief outlook in October, not as detailed as last year’s. But my first guess is that we have about a 70% chance of a rat where we get only 0-3”. Only the upslope favored areas will do ok. One other thing I’ll say is that if you wanna chase snow, you may not necessarily have to fly west. I have a feeling there’ll be a monster lake effect event in Buffalo sometime late Nov through Dec. That’s your window if you want to get dumped on within a 7 hour drive of here.

Like Tip said, I suspect that non linear effects are involved. If just “adding” these effects together along with CO2 wasn’t enough to explain the global temp spike, then either something else is going on and we missed it (unlikely)… or the combination of these effects isn’t additive but rather multiplicative or heaven forbid, exponential.

Monster torch coming to central/eastern Canada through mid late month

45 so far

A degree C AN doesn’t sound too bad, but I wonder if NMME underestimates the magnitude of temp anomalies where the core of each anomaly is centered. Feels like I’ve seen this two winters in a row.

48 for the low. First 40s of the year, seems pretty early

Thanks for sharing. I agree with the general idea of a mild east and cold snowy west. Also with the torch Feb. My main hope is that January will be closer to average temp wise, which gives us more chances for snow before the Feb shutout. I’m in northern VA.

Congratulations Bob! I’m sure it’s a relief. Will be good to have you back this winter. Unfortunately it’s looking real ugly. All factors point to a warm and snowless winter in the MA. Then again, many factors pointed to a snowy winter last year, and we know what happened then… so idk.

If the reason behind quiet activity is that the ITCZ is too far north, I wonder if we’ll see a delayed but active period when the ITCZ starts moving back south. But by then it may be too late for MDR genesis

I don’t have a twitter account either. Well I had one, but deleted it.

Interesting you say that. Last year I did a quantitative analysis on how much CC has impacted our snowfall thus far, and found it to be roughly 16% using two different methods arriving at basically the same answer. But we haven’t seen a merely 16% reduction the last few years - its been way more than that. Either we’re still underestimating the effects of CC on snowfall, or we’re in an awful pattern - which is the point you seem to be making. The big question is whether this awful pattern as of late is being driven by CC itself.

Good post, and I agree after checking the new run. I’m a little more pessimistic than you after seeing how dry the 3-month average over DJF is currently depicted to be. But the saving grace is that Canada may not be torched this time like last year, and all it takes is a little well-timed cold push SE…

Just a brief shower. Fell apart pretty quick once it crossed over rt 15

Thanks for the laugh! Do you have some sort of beef with Boston, though? I’m genuinely curious.

Some people in the ENSO thread have been saying that this could be a version 2.0 of the 22-23 winter. Analog looks good, but I think there may be even less blocking this time than that winter unless the tropics start acting up soon. I’m trying to find paths to a decent winter, and aside from the EPO domain, I’m not seeing much.

While I think we’ll see more of the same this winter, a potential wild card is that ssts off the west coast have been warming the last 4 weeks. Still have that marine hear wave off Japan and SW of the aleutians, so that’s supportive of a north pacific high on a seasonal scale. But I wonder if we’ll see a bit more -EPO blocking. Like last January, that’s our path to a serviceable albeit below climo winter. But if those waters cool back down in the fall while the Japan marine heat wave persists, I don’t see a way out of another warm and snowless winter unless a short-term fluke happens.

2.15" yesterday, 5.84" MTD

2.07” and still raining

Cell over me just wouldn’t quit. 1.55” and counting

95, HI 105

Most likely short term, but I think we will see a few deviations away from the nina base state going forward. Those cannot be predicted on a seasonal time scale, though

While the upcoming winter looks ugly on a seasonal time scale, I think it's interesting that we have had one significant BN period in the east this month and another one coming in early September. If this is a sign of things to come, 2 maybe 3 periods of significant cold should be in play in an otherwise warm winter. Kind of like last year.

The qbo and solar connection to our weather has always looked very weak to me. Until I dive into the data and run my own analyses, I’m open to the possibility of it being not as clear cut as you make it out to be.

This is really interesting… it seems for a solar max, we would prefer a westerly QBO based on that map. What was the source of this map, and what data did they use? I want to verify this myself. If you can’t get the source, no worries - I can try to use publicly available data from NOAA.