Terpeast

Kirk and Leslie both have plenty of gas in their tanks as per NHC, so we may reach or exceed 120-125 ACE after these plus Milton

Really hoping it won‘t turn north into NC. Getting close to 100 ACE on the year, and Milton is likely to push us over maybe towards 110. Right around average.

Yeah so am I. Just that the arrival of pumpkin season gets me a little carried away

And maybe the-storm-that-shall-not-be-named won’t be a miss the second time around. /weenie mode

Looking closely at the first one, we can see more of an -epo signature with the north american trough being more central. This is what happened this past January… and that was in spite of the strong nino, not because of it. That week was more of a La Nina pattern with -EPO/-NAO. This is the pathway to getting snow in this new normal. I also remember (if correctly) Heisy saying that if the leading wave in front of the second storm hadn’t squashed the flow too much, it could have been a much bigger storm. This is what we want to root for in the upcoming winter.

Fixed

I don’t use X but would be great if y’all post raindance’s tweets here.

Need to dry things out here. Yard is disgusting and mosquitoes are everywhere

I hope they are all okay. So sad.

I-40 eastbound out of Asheville reopened last night per NC Weather Authority’s facebook post.

Agreed. I’m actually experimenting with AI and machine learning to enable this sort of pattern recognition and use that to predict where the main features are going to be on a seasonal time scale.

Notice it happened more frequently before the monster -pdo/-enso background state after 2015. Since that year, it only happened once. So i’m not sure if this pattern will hold this time. If it does, I think its random chance, like flipping a coin and getting tails 5x in a row and then getting heads on the 6th try. But if we DO get a cold February, I’m willing to eat my words and concede that you’re onto something.

3.63” on the month. The only day we got a lot of rain was 1.56” on the 26th, the rest was nickel and dime stuff of 0.05-0.25” even though we haven’t seen the sun in almost two weeks.

Yeah, we basically have nothing else going for us (anyone south of 40n east of the apps). If the MJO flops this month like the euro is saying, we have a fairly high probability of looking at another stinker of a winter like 2022-23 barring a rogue fluke. If the MJO pops OTOH, it’ll be a good test of the relationship that bluewave has sniffed out and hopefully we’ll get at least a few weeks of a decent wintry period.

Worth noting most models take the MJO into 4-6 for October, but differ in strength. GFS ens goes record strong especially in the second half of the month, while Euro ens keeps it weak or COD.

Haven’t seen any up this way, but noticed a few stink bugs. That’s new because I hadn’t seen them last year or the year before.

Musta been gnarly

Going by radar, Helene appears to have made a jog east moreso than the nhc forecast track. Maybe nothing, maybe something

Except for the storm surge in the immediate coast. But other than that, I agree

1.56” overnight

Looking ominous, especially that 12+ storm surge and high flood risk in the southern apps. Stay safe @WxWatcher007

For what it's worth, all ensembles (gfs, eps, cmc) point to October 2021 as a top analog in the 6-10/11-15 day forecasts at least in yesterday's 12z run. We'll see if this holds though, as bluewave said this is a volatile pattern especially in terms of the polar domain.

Good link, but what you said in bolded implies that low arctic ice is causing multityear ninas. That’s not what the paper is saying at all - if anything, they’re showing evidence that points to the other way around, multiyear ninas causing lower sea ice by changing the mid-lat circulation via forcing. Be careful with interpreting your sources. edit: I had it flipped in the first sentence. Now corrected

That plot makes more sense, thanks. It’s as though the 1950s was more like the 1990s, both being pretty warm decades. But now, we have way overshot both.

Its amazing how warm the 1950s were there, or at least depicted in the graph just before that gap. I wonder about the accuracy and/or warm bias (if any) for those records taken then. If accurate, wonder what drove the warmth then and there.