Terpeast

82 imby

With the marine heat wave off Japan, strong negative PDO, high solar with westerly QBO, and a very warm Atlantic, and a weaker La Nina (stronger is actually better for us) it’s hard to think of any other forcing mechanism that can temporarily shake things up.

May get a temporary reprieve from the SE ridge mid-late month, then another pass back through mjo 4-6 late nov through mid Dec. On the plus side, it could possibly set us up for an interesting late Dec/early Jan period when the MJO completes its 4-6 pass.

SE ridge to continue for at least 1, probably 2 weeks. EPS shows pretty much the same. Better for it to happen now and November than later?

Has Ji ever canceled winter this early in October?

Got down to 32

Low of 36

Either way, we should do another pass through 4-6 in December, before we take aim at the colder phases late Dec through mid-Jan, give or take a week or so. That will be the window of opportunity I’m watching for the MA. The initial pass through 8-1-2 (weak or not) might yield some results for great lakes through interior NE, but just seasonal cool weather for the MA.

Crazy how long of a stretch without seeing a single cloud in the sky. Not even cirrus

I’ve gotten bit well into November in DC. I think December is when mosquito activity dies down unless Thanksgiving gets cold.

It actually has. I found a 16-18% increase in annual precip at IAD since 1962. But the variance is probably also increasing.

I think periods of heavy rainfall and periods of drought are only going to get more extreme. Longer droughts, and more severe flooding when it does rain. by the way, I got to 82 today.

Absolutely. As long as it is within the range of outcomes, I would be nervous if I lived there.

I hope it is wrong. NC does not need this

Reasonable, my timing is a bit different from yours, but overall agreed

Have to see how this plays out, but could be the winter weather’s version of an “october surprise”

Didn’t quite make it to 80 today. High 78.6. probably hit 80 tomorrow

Even when looking at the control run, it still doesn't look right. I think it's something that's gone a bit haywire. As far as whether or not it's intentional, I'm not going there. I'll just use other maps.

I think our chances will come in smaller windows. I'd break that big window up into smaller ones, like a week in Dec, two weeks in early Jan, a week or so in Feb, etc. I don't expect multiple chances in a large window, especially now that models are starting to trend warmer in both medium-term and seasonal forecasts. But all we really need is one good hit within one of those windows to make it a winter (or storm) to remember.

Maybe overly simplistic, but we’re now going through the warm MJO phases, which means a warming/warmer signal through at least mid-november. If the full MJO cycle is 30-60 days, say the average is 45 days. Then we should go through the cold phases from mid-november through early december. Then warm phases again from early dec through new years. That puts us back in cold phases from new years through the third week of January. That sounds similar to Jan 2022. Just thinking of it in terms of a clock, except counter-clockwise. But that’s assuming the MJO won’t just die into COD at 7 and then resurface at 4, which would be a death sentence to snowfall prospects south of i-90.

Yeah, and we’re not even sure if this nina will get that strong by ONI either. Over in the MA forum, we were discussing how we should actually root for a stronger late peaking nina over a neutral because we’ve had better winters during the former.

75 here

Yeah, if the newer runs are correct and the MJO spends the rest of this month at an amplitude of 2 or higher, then this autumn will be grouped with the colder la nina winters by this measure (other measures may diverge though)

Decent cool week. 5 straight nights with lows in the 30s in mid October. I suspect this is the kind of BN stretches bracketed by much AN days we’re likely to see this winter. It’s been bone dry though.

The Euro had it this strong a while ago, and the gefs had it much weaker. Seems the gefs “caved” and the mjo 5-6 wave is going strong. It seems to be around 2 in amplitude now, and going even higher in the short term.