I don't think I've seen an MJO RMM forecast that shows it dying into COD from the warm phases in the last few years. Usually it gets even stronger as it goes through the MC. I hope this is right.
Time for a December thread.
GEFS/GEPS starting to show a potential coastal Dec 5-7 time frame with cold still hanging around.
I should add that the canadian is more aggressive with the signal that time frame, the gefs or eps not so much.
Was out to the store with my daughter. In the parking lot, she said “it’s snowing!!!”
Me: “no it’s not, it’s just raining”
Her: “yes it is snowing! Look!”
Me: *looks closely* “oh….”
it was more like sleet/graupel… but i’ll give her the obs win
2008-09 is indeed one of my analogs for this winter. Even with all the brouhaha over the upcoming pattern and the stalling “nina”, my thoughts about this winter haven’t changed.
Yes I remember that one. Veteran’s day storm.
Went sledding as a kid, and I remember thinking “if it snows this early, this is going to be a monster winter” (which didn’t necessarily transpire that way lol)