Terpeast
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Everything posted by Terpeast
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0.25” so far
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BWI: 9.4” DCA: 5.1” IAD: 12.3” RIC: 2.8” Tiebreaker (SBY): 4.3”
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Raining, never got out of the 40s
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29.3 for the low mby
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Same, 0.34”. Just enough to skip watering my new grass for one evening.
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Yeah, that’s the beginning of the time frame that I’m interested in. Around then through roughly mid Jan, depending on the MJO
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MJO rmm ens forecasts currently predict another 4-6 pass between Thanksgiving and mid-December-ish. November will be mild overall for the east, but might have some variability on the cooler side, potentially a huge lake effect event late Nov or an interior snowfall in the NE. Then likely turn back milder for the first half of December. Beyond that is when I’m watching for it to turn, if at all.
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A bit of a SE ridge linking up with the -NAO, looks familiar. Hope we get some rain, anyway.
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Yes please.
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Yep. We will get ours one day, and when we do, some existing snowfall records will get absolutely pancaked. Not this winter probably.
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Let’s save this for late Dec or Jan, mm aight?
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This may not even qualify as a nina if ONI stays weak, even though MEI/RONI are already in nina territory. both Nov and Dec look torchy, and I don’t see any decent chances for wintry weather in the MA until late Dec and thereafter.
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Just some fun speculation… maybe Feb will be the cold month this time? Not the first time CFS hinted this
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Where did you get those? Links?
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Got enough rain to wet the ground a bit. Was surprised. Don’t think it amounted too that much, though
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Makes sense because the MJO will be back in the warm phases by then. It’s late Dec onward that I’m watching for.
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82 imby
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With the marine heat wave off Japan, strong negative PDO, high solar with westerly QBO, and a very warm Atlantic, and a weaker La Nina (stronger is actually better for us) it’s hard to think of any other forcing mechanism that can temporarily shake things up.
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May get a temporary reprieve from the SE ridge mid-late month, then another pass back through mjo 4-6 late nov through mid Dec. On the plus side, it could possibly set us up for an interesting late Dec/early Jan period when the MJO completes its 4-6 pass.
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SE ridge to continue for at least 1, probably 2 weeks. EPS shows pretty much the same. Better for it to happen now and November than later?
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Has Ji ever canceled winter this early in October?
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Got down to 32
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Low of 36
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Either way, we should do another pass through 4-6 in December, before we take aim at the colder phases late Dec through mid-Jan, give or take a week or so. That will be the window of opportunity I’m watching for the MA. The initial pass through 8-1-2 (weak or not) might yield some results for great lakes through interior NE, but just seasonal cool weather for the MA.
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Crazy how long of a stretch without seeing a single cloud in the sky. Not even cirrus
