Terpeast
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Everything posted by Terpeast
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GEFS and EPS while in lockstep with the mid-month moderation, they diverge because EPS wants to maintain -EPO the rest of the month and keep cold air nearby, while the GFS flattens the Alaska ridge a bit giving NW US/SW Canada less cold.
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Kill off the bugs early. Never a bad thing.
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I think extra variability will be the story of this winter. For now, the warm pool via MJO 5-6 is starting to exert its influence, but as I’ve been saying for almost a month now, the period I’m watching is when the MJO completes its pass through 6 entering 7/8/1 and the +AAM comes back at the same time. Still estimate that to be late Dec - early Jan, but sometimes models rush a pattern change, so it could be after the New Year. I could be wrong about the specifics, but again I think we’re going to see more variability.
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Low of 25
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Yeah, the models have been pretty shaky and I think thats going to be the story of the entire winter.
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Thought the strat PV is staying strong for the foreseeable future. Got any new data on that? And a strat warm is no guarantee of a cold outbreak here. It could spill to the other side or to Europe. We better hope that EPO stays negative if we get a strat warm.
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Carver’s Gap just posted euro weeklies in the TN forum. Not a lot to complain about…
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11/21: T (brief graupel) 11/22: T (non accum snow showers that lasted a few hours) 12/1: T (snow shower that briefly dusted)
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Light snow. Finally! Car top starting to get dusted.
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Commanders are so back
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Still nothing. Don’t think it’ll happen. Rt 15 looks like a wall
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Nothing yet in Ashburn, hoping this band pushes east of 15
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12z Euro starting to latch onto a 500mb s/w on 12/7-8. Decent vort pass over us. Nothing on the surface yet, but it's a change from the last run. After that, the 12/11 system cuts to the lakes.
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Hard to say. Some members still show a dec 8 wave, at which time we have the cold air to support snow. But how strong it is, and whether it’s even going to play out or get swallowed up by stronger energy out west, is still TBD. Unfortunately it’s been trending the wrong way for several days now. The stronger system could potentially be a Midwest low, with coastal redevelopment. Best to hope for with that system is we have enough cold air damming to keep up the potential for a front end thump before changeover. Not loving the ice storm scenario, though.
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I noticed the GFS ensembles trended weaker with the SW energy and this is becoming a wave almost purely driven by the NS. New run: Old run from 3 days ago:
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Yep. It seems the models, esp the GFS, are completely lost as to handling the dec 8-11 system (we can’t even nail it down to a calendar day). Until we see multiple models converging onto a similar solution, nothing is off the table.
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Either way, low confidence. It’s not going to be as clear cut as we thought it would be even a month ago when it looked like another record warm winter through and through. It’s looking more like there will be a couple of surprise curveballs along the way. Not saying it’ll be a BN winter/AN snowfall in the east, I’m sticking with my AN temps and BN snow outlook, but probably not as bad as we thought.
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I think that is a low confidence outlook given that the AAM’s weakening is forecast to only be temporary. Although the Dec 10 “moderation” coincides with the AAM going neutral, the CFS is projecting the +AAM to restrengthen after mid-Dec.
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it may be speeding up just a little… IIRC previous runs showed it still in 5 until the 11th or so
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I can see that playing out if the MJO goes into 7-8-1 and the AAM stays positive. Even a +1 C won’t be prohibitive for snowfall in the MA.
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They could be trying to revert to a standard La Nina pattern, except they keep maintaining -EPO. But two weeks ago, they were depicting a torch around this time and that was a huge miss. Maybe it’s just a one-off, but with the continued +AAM and the MJO going into 7 and 8 later this month into January makes me think otherwise. The new Cansips seems to have shifted in that direction, too.
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All ensemble models show cold air reloading in W Canada while maintaining -EPO at the end of their runs, so any mid-month moderation may be short lived (a week, maybe 2).
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All ensembles show cold air reloading in W Canada while maintaining -EPO at the end of their runs, so any moderation may be short lived (a week, maybe 2) Still having trouble resolving the dec 8-11 threat(s). Need another couple of days to converge on the most likely solution
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20.3 for the low
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21.6
