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Terpeast

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Everything posted by Terpeast

  1. Terpeast
    Gfs op looks weird. Slow moving OH valley low… then it dies… and then not 24 hours later a coastal races by? 500mb looks more like one wave trying to phase with the PV than two separate storms. Either way, it won’t verify close to verbatim.
  2. Terpeast
    It’s closer to a big hit than the surface would tell you, though. Look upstairs
  3. Terpeast
    Gonna slide i think. Wave spacing issues as CAPE said. If the second wave slows down just a bit, it’ll get more room to dig and amp with the 50/50 established
  4. Terpeast
    Nice pass that gives us 4-8” areawide with no mixing. Biggest takeaway is that everything is on the table at this point. We should be able to pull some wintry precip out of this upcoming period.
  5. Terpeast
    Stronger high bearing down further south
  6. Terpeast
    That’s how we roll here
  7. Terpeast
    Worth a look, yes. Op euro is way overdone on suppression imho. I bet the next 0z run will bring it back further north
  8. Terpeast
    I just checked, first one fell just short of warning at 4.5”. Second was 5.5”.
  9. Terpeast
    What about the 2 Jan events last year? Both were warning events for me. Barely, but still
  10. Terpeast
    That is an epic look. The op probably overdoes it.
  11. Terpeast
    Its similar to 6z just 6 hours slower
  12. Terpeast
    I’d take it, tbh. I’m not going to play the “sacrifice a more likely storm for a shoot-for-the-moon BECS which may or (more likely) may not happen” game.
  13. Terpeast
    First obs from my own ambient station: 63.7 still testing it on my deck so may be running a bit warm, will put it further out imby when I finish testing and replace the batteries with lithium ones
  14. Terpeast
    It means the ensembles don’t create enough spread to show all/most possibilities at range. iow, overconfident on one scenario. AI models also have this problem, which is being worked on.
  15. Terpeast
    The GFS ensembles has always had a weaker signal for Jan 9-10 than 6-7. The EPS is opposite, the latter being stronger than the first wave. I think the op 6z GFS went back to what its ensemble suite was showing the whole time, while the op Euro was showing one of the upper potential scenarios of the ensembles. I usually lean on the Euro+EPS because it has been the better performing model suite based on recent verification scores in the last couple of months.
  16. Terpeast
    Remember guys, when we saw a great pattern modeled for Feb 2024, we did not actually see any snowstorms on the op models at this range. We do now. One step closer.
  17. Terpeast
    Nice consecutive runs by the gfs. If the other models pick it up, too, they could be sniffing something early.
  18. Terpeast
    Just installed my new ambient weather station imby, got it for a xmas present from my wife. Tomorrow I’ll put it up on my fence and set it at about 10’ agl. Not expecting accurate wind speeds since I’m surrounded by trees and houses, but now I won’t be looking at other pws obs to report my temps
  19. Terpeast
    Not a fan either, but it’s nice to see something different than a i-95 straddler with nothing to the SE and minimal amounts to the NW of that line. That usually means we get nothing outside of the mountains. But this is a good signal from 8-14 days out.
  20. Terpeast
    Based on the mslp anomalies, all ensembles seem to agree on a good track for us between 1/6-10. So far this is holding well.
  21. Terpeast
    We just need this to hold until it actually verifies.
  22. Terpeast
    IIRC, the difference between this year and 2022-23 was that the 2022 nina peaked early and slowly faded through the winter. This year seems to be a late peaker. Off the top of your head, which analogs are similar to this late peaking nina, or have we never seen a nina strengthen this late in the game?
  23. Terpeast
    Yesterday 3x spin: C-1” 2x and 3-5” Today? 3.5”, MECS, HECS A trend?
  24. Terpeast
    That looks like a snow thump to ice with CAD. But I don’t trust the AIFS with those details - it’s been doing decent with the broader long wave picture so would definitely take this into account.
  25. Terpeast
    Rolled 3x and got coating to 1” twice and 3-5” once
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