Terpeast

Nice consecutive runs by the gfs. If the other models pick it up, too, they could be sniffing something early.

Just installed my new ambient weather station imby, got it for a xmas present from my wife. Tomorrow I’ll put it up on my fence and set it at about 10’ agl. Not expecting accurate wind speeds since I’m surrounded by trees and houses, but now I won’t be looking at other pws obs to report my temps

Not a fan either, but it’s nice to see something different than a i-95 straddler with nothing to the SE and minimal amounts to the NW of that line. That usually means we get nothing outside of the mountains. But this is a good signal from 8-14 days out.

Based on the mslp anomalies, all ensembles seem to agree on a good track for us between 1/6-10. So far this is holding well.

We just need this to hold until it actually verifies.

IIRC, the difference between this year and 2022-23 was that the 2022 nina peaked early and slowly faded through the winter. This year seems to be a late peaker. Off the top of your head, which analogs are similar to this late peaking nina, or have we never seen a nina strengthen this late in the game?

Yesterday 3x spin: C-1” 2x and 3-5” Today? 3.5”, MECS, HECS A trend?

That looks like a snow thump to ice with CAD. But I don’t trust the AIFS with those details - it’s been doing decent with the broader long wave picture so would definitely take this into account.

Rolled 3x and got coating to 1” twice and 3-5” once

I remember that. We did see some cold coming after two powerful cutters, but did not see the 2 SECS until about 4-5 days prior, and even then they were progged to hit to the north of us. I think something similar is going to happen here. We won't see storms coming until the cold actually gets here, and only then we will be tracking threats, if any. Liking what the ens are showing, but I'm in wait and see mode. Get the cold here first, then track.

When the -NAO fades, that's when we usually get a snowstorm. Pretty typical progression scenario

I’m just curious, wasn’t 4” the criteria for a winter storm warning here before they changed it to 5”? Or has it always been 5”? My memory isn’t what it used to be.

That’s the mean trough position, with a ton of smoothing out at this range.

Biblical east coast storm. The elite class of em. 1996, first 2010 storm, and 2016

Merry Christmas everyone!

One positive takeaway from this is it might put a dent in the global temperatures. The overall spatial SST maps look a lot cooler with the ENSO region cooling off, as well as the Japan marine heat wave abating.

After a bunch of traces, here’s my first report on the board: 12/24: 0.1” snow/ice mix

Logging my first 0.1” in the reporting thread

Driveways and sidewalks are white. Probably a sheet of ice

Haven’t seen any roads treated here. If the nam is right, it’s gonna be bad

That's my take, too. I think we'll ultimately see a compromise between the GEFS and EPS/GEPS. Initially, cold moves down west, then a cutter or two pulls the cold east, and by the time we have a trackable threat it might be 1/5-1/7 or soon after (as opposed to 1/4 like we were thinking yesterday or the day before). Also, I'm not sure how durable this upcoming cold period will be. It's been the case for the last several years that we get mostly short-lived cold periods of a week to 10 days each. However, we still should get a trackable threat or two in that cold period just because it's January.

GEPS is more in EPS camp than GEFS fyi

Still in wait and see mode. GEFS as depicted will be a cutter on Jan 3, and then *maybe* a follow up wave that slides south of us similar to Jan 2022. Not the big dog we’re looking for, but it still leaves a path to modest success here.

Since we had such a fast PDO rise, I’d say we’ve had a +PDO atmospheric pattern and it’s taking time to make an imprint on the SSTs. But it’s still an uphill battle that becomes less and less the longer we hold this pattern.

Now we can’t use the extremely negative PDO as an “excuse”.