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Terpeast

Meteorologist
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Everything posted by Terpeast

  1. Terpeast
    Ridge in between the s/w and the clipper trough looks weaker, may help keep cold in place better, but might be a weaker storm in terms of less risk that it cuts
  2. Terpeast
    Fwiw, CMC is stronger and faster with the western s/w. Will be an interesting comparison
  3. Terpeast
    Not sure it means much yet, just everything is a bit slower
  4. Terpeast
    Nah I like where it is, the track. Nice and easy E-W just south of us with no mixing issues. It tries to dry slot us early, could be right but precip is likely underdone. But it’s the ICON a week out, so…
  5. Terpeast
    When it got cold Thanksiving - early dec, the CMC verified better than the GFS. Not as good as the Euro, but still did a decent job. I'd pay attention to the CMC
  6. Terpeast
    And the southern s/w looks a little faster this run than 0z euro
  7. Terpeast
    EPS is definitely a step in the right direction. We do want it colder and more suppressed as I’d rather be on the north side a week out than to the south
  8. Terpeast
    Not sure why I got weenie tagged for this comment. In the same way, when a perfect track is modeled at 200 hr, chances are it ends up being a cutter unless we get the PV to press down. Still a very NS-driven pattern so models are going to struggle beyond 4-5 days out.
  9. Terpeast
    I don’t believe that the PV right over our backyards is going to happen. I think storm tracks will verify further north than modeled, so I would mentally adjust any suppressive looks north.
  10. Terpeast
    Gfs op looks weird. Slow moving OH valley low… then it dies… and then not 24 hours later a coastal races by? 500mb looks more like one wave trying to phase with the PV than two separate storms. Either way, it won’t verify close to verbatim.
  11. Terpeast
    It’s closer to a big hit than the surface would tell you, though. Look upstairs
  12. Terpeast
    Gonna slide i think. Wave spacing issues as CAPE said. If the second wave slows down just a bit, it’ll get more room to dig and amp with the 50/50 established
  13. Terpeast
    Nice pass that gives us 4-8” areawide with no mixing. Biggest takeaway is that everything is on the table at this point. We should be able to pull some wintry precip out of this upcoming period.
  14. Terpeast
    Stronger high bearing down further south
  15. Terpeast
    That’s how we roll here
  16. Terpeast
    Worth a look, yes. Op euro is way overdone on suppression imho. I bet the next 0z run will bring it back further north
  17. Terpeast
    I just checked, first one fell just short of warning at 4.5”. Second was 5.5”.
  18. Terpeast
    What about the 2 Jan events last year? Both were warning events for me. Barely, but still
  19. Terpeast
    That is an epic look. The op probably overdoes it.
  20. Terpeast
    Its similar to 6z just 6 hours slower
  21. Terpeast
    I’d take it, tbh. I’m not going to play the “sacrifice a more likely storm for a shoot-for-the-moon BECS which may or (more likely) may not happen” game.
  22. Terpeast
    First obs from my own ambient station: 63.7 still testing it on my deck so may be running a bit warm, will put it further out imby when I finish testing and replace the batteries with lithium ones
  23. Terpeast
    It means the ensembles don’t create enough spread to show all/most possibilities at range. iow, overconfident on one scenario. AI models also have this problem, which is being worked on.
  24. Terpeast
    The GFS ensembles has always had a weaker signal for Jan 9-10 than 6-7. The EPS is opposite, the latter being stronger than the first wave. I think the op 6z GFS went back to what its ensemble suite was showing the whole time, while the op Euro was showing one of the upper potential scenarios of the ensembles. I usually lean on the Euro+EPS because it has been the better performing model suite based on recent verification scores in the last couple of months.
  25. Terpeast
    Remember guys, when we saw a great pattern modeled for Feb 2024, we did not actually see any snowstorms on the op models at this range. We do now. One step closer.
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