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Terpeast

Meteorologist
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Everything posted by Terpeast

  1. Terpeast
    2902. Christmas present from wife
  2. Terpeast
    Subzero imby. We’ll see if my new ambient verifies. Hope it doesn’t break!
  3. Terpeast
    No real trend on the euro, this is noise at 6-7 days out
  4. Terpeast
    UKMET is on the other side of GFS, with Euro/ICON/CMC somewhere in the middle
  5. Terpeast
    I wouldn't react negatively to more confluence pushing this storm south. I would always leave the door open for a last minute north trend, so we're sitting right where we want to be sitting imho. There's always a chance that the first system off the coast is going to be overdone, and with an active NS, the 50/50 low might get pushed a bit to the east. It's trending stronger, sure, but I think there will be more progressiveness to it than what the models are depicting 6-7 days out.
  6. Terpeast
    Actually confluence is stronger on 6z. Look at the 540 line and vorticity pressing southward over MN & WI eastward through the great lakes.
  7. Terpeast
    Someone may see a dusting east of the mountains from this one. Not holding my breath for mby
  8. Terpeast
    Maybe but not necessarily. Confluence in front is a bit stronger 6z than 0z
  9. Terpeast
    CMC, Euro, and GFS runs today/tonight generally agree on the track. Not a cutter, but not overly suppressed either. The key player is “50/50” low and whether it moves/rotates a bit out of the way to give the s/w room to amplify, but not so far out that we don’t get confluence and therefore it cuts. The cutter risk is lower now, and we should be happy with a suppressed/sheared track this far out. Plenty of time for it to evolve.
  10. Terpeast
    CMC low to OH/WV then coastal transfer
  11. Terpeast
    CMC is trying to cut. Not sure it does, but it’s another possible solution besides the GFS.
  12. Terpeast
    Guys, don’t get too frustrated. We are very much still in the game. I rather see a more southern track than a cutter at this point.
  13. Terpeast
    Ironically a faster pac jet would help kick things to the east here, but not so much thay it cuts. Delicate balance, and models won’t get this pinned down until 4 days before the event. Still resolving the clipper, which seems to have trended stronger.
  14. Terpeast
    More confluence over the east. Much more than 18z
  15. Terpeast
    Less NS energy too
  16. Terpeast
    Trended colder in the midwest/plains 3 runs in a row per gfs.
  17. Terpeast
    Ridge in between the s/w and the clipper trough looks weaker, may help keep cold in place better, but might be a weaker storm in terms of less risk that it cuts
  18. Terpeast
    Fwiw, CMC is stronger and faster with the western s/w. Will be an interesting comparison
  19. Terpeast
    Not sure it means much yet, just everything is a bit slower
  20. Terpeast
    Nah I like where it is, the track. Nice and easy E-W just south of us with no mixing issues. It tries to dry slot us early, could be right but precip is likely underdone. But it’s the ICON a week out, so…
  21. Terpeast
    When it got cold Thanksiving - early dec, the CMC verified better than the GFS. Not as good as the Euro, but still did a decent job. I'd pay attention to the CMC
  22. Terpeast
    And the southern s/w looks a little faster this run than 0z euro
  23. Terpeast
    EPS is definitely a step in the right direction. We do want it colder and more suppressed as I’d rather be on the north side a week out than to the south
  24. Terpeast
    Not sure why I got weenie tagged for this comment. In the same way, when a perfect track is modeled at 200 hr, chances are it ends up being a cutter unless we get the PV to press down. Still a very NS-driven pattern so models are going to struggle beyond 4-5 days out.
  25. Terpeast
    I don’t believe that the PV right over our backyards is going to happen. I think storm tracks will verify further north than modeled, so I would mentally adjust any suppressive looks north.
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