Terpeast
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Everything posted by Terpeast
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if the temp straddles the 0C line on the sounding, but doesn't nose to the right of it, it's snow. But if we see an obvious nose to the right of 0C for about 500+ feet, it's sleet or freezing rain depending on how thick the surface cold layer is.
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That southern gradient of snow totals suggests the mix line bisecting DC at its northernmost extent, but staying south for the most part.
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Sounds like a thump to dry slot / light precip and then back to powder. Although I'd prefer an all snow event through and through, that scenario is more than acceptable.
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That part is going to be very fickle and likely won't be resolved until right up to game time.
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This is close, but still snow.
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Open wave at 78 instead of closed vort same time previous run
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Good to see you here. I hope the south shift is correct and you get snow, too!
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Stronger vort + stronger confluence will get that done for us
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100% this. Getting a 150 mile swath of snowfall correct from 3-4 days out is the equivalent of netting a basketball from half court.
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Total hunch, i think it stops today 12z or 18z then once the system gets going east of the rockies, they tick back north
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Low of 24.8, my weather station usually in line with others around me, if not 0.5 warmer. But it radiates really well at night or even early morning with no wind.
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Yeah, I’ve been watching that feature since last night. Lots of moving pieces in that gyre and one might interact with the s/w for better or worse. For now (and this could change) it pushes the wave down and the models are picking up on it. My biggest hope is that it prevents an icy mess along i-66/i-95
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We have some breathing room. Again. For how long? Who knows.
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Yep, and even if the M/D line or i-70 north don’t get the qpf max, their ratios should make up for it. Mitchnick is still good, probably.
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Feel better soon!
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It is a delicate balance that involves luck and timing. We have that northerly cyclonic flow from Canada, but it really is a thread the needle situation.
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Good morning. I woke up at 5 and tried to get back to sleep, but I caved and checked this forum to see what the euro said. Happy that I did. Even the 06z gfs!
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While we don’t have the typical cold high to the north, we do have northerly flow from Canada down to the upper mid Atlantic thanks to the TPV to the NE. I think it effectively serves the same function as a cold high would. But this system is so dynamic that any northward shift would basically shut us out of any significant accumulation, and favor more icing. I’m just hoping that doesn’t happen, but you could be right.
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The goal posts are set. Gfs/icon on one extreme, ukie on the other.
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What’s interesting is that GFS performance really nosedives on some specific periods (1-2 days) and then gets back in line with the CMC and Euro, which have smaller dips. I haven’t checked, but my hunch is that the GFS struggles mightily with highly dynamic storms and/or major pattern shifts. Would have to do some reanalysis to back this up, but it’s getting late
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As far as recent 1-5 day verification performance goes: 500mb heights: Euro is top, CMC very close second, GFS distant third 850mb temps: Euro top, CMC and GFS are about the same Did not check ensembles.
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CMC is a forum wide snowstorm with little or no mixing. I need to check its verification scores within 5 days, but it’s up there last time I looked.
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CMC also closing off the low, which all models have so far trended to. But confluence is stronger and more cold air is pressing down SW at least for the onset.
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Not a fan of the GFS run either. We’ll see what the CMC has to say.
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I do like the sfc low placement on the nam at the end of its run
