Terpeast

Maybe nothing, but s/w low is less deep than 18z (h5 vorticity)

I see faster flow at h5 on the western flank of the big low to our NE. Might play a role later.

1/3: 0.3” fun snow squall with legit blizzard conditions for 5-10 min

If it were the GFS south and Euro north, there would be little debate or uncertainty on how this is going to evolve. But it’s really hard to bet against the Euro

That’s what I’m thinking too. Hopefully the southern band will get us and run up the accums before any mixing or dry slot, then add a few more on the backend.

I thought the euro shifted north. Yes, it’s still south but closer to coming to an agreement. Probably by tomorrow morning or afternoon, we’ll see this thing locked in.

Haha true

Did I confuse you? Sorry. I'm speaking from mby, the other models gave me more snow than the GFS. Plus GFS dry slots me. So I'm not as excited about this run.

GFS not as exciting as the other model runs, but gives us an idea of what the floor might look like as far as accums go in a warmer/norther scenario.

I kind of like seeing the spread between models because it still shows a range of possibilities between the northernmost/warmest scenario and the southernmost/coldest scenario. The goal posts are starting to narrow, and we're in a good place. Soon, we will start parsing the mesoscale details like best banding, how far N the mix line goes, and when the coastal takes over.

Did you mean MD route 32? I checked, it runs north-south, so its kinda confusing

Don't know if anyone noticed, but the sfc low track was about 40 miles south of previous NAM runs.

How about that CCB backend! If that's coming to fruition, double digit totals despite any brief period of sleet

Band passed, eyeballing 0.2” on grassy surfaces and car tops. Roads wet. 33.6

Second squall. Puking fatties. 34

Puking snow! finally whitening up

Sorry if posted before. Afternoon AFD from LWX. Bolded is my own emphasis. .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... Sunday will start off dry as surface high pressure shifts offshore to our southeast. High temperatures will be in the 30s for most with those along the highest elevations and in the Alleghenies staying in the 20s. By Sunday afternoon, snowfall moves into the southwestern portions of the forecast area as a low pressure system tracks from the Mississippi River Valley towards the forecast area. Snowfall spreads throughout the forecast area Sunday afternoon and continues overnight. Cold temperatures will likely lead to precipitation type being primarily snow, though a warm nose aloft will likely lead to sleet/freezing rain mixing in overnight. Highest chances for sleet/freezing rain is across central Virginia and into the Allegheny Highlands. Ice accumulation forecast ranges from zero in the northwestern portions of the area to up to a quarter inch near Charlottesville. Currently have ice staying south of the I-66 corridor, though there remains uncertainty in the forecast given the event being several days out. For snowfall, highest forecast totals remain along and west of the Alleghenies where totals of 8 to 10 inches are forecast. Further east, snowfall accumulation is forecast across the entire area with totals ranging from 2 inches in the southernmost portions of the area to nearing 8 inches across central Maryland/eastern panhandle of WV and the western portions of Virginia. Metro areas will likely see 4 to 6 inches of snow with higher totals possible. The exact snow total forecast is subject to change due to the winter event being 4 days away and model variability with mixed precipitation. 12Z guidance continues to show a good bit of discrepancy with the ECMWF having highest totals farther south and the NAM having highest totals along the MD/PA border. We will continue to monitor the forecast as the event gets closer, but for now prepare for a moderate winter storm bringing mixed wintry precipitation to the area Sunday into Monday.

Suddenly fatties

Snowing better now. 37

Tough forecast for the Wakefield office. Very high bust potential... even moreso than here or Mt Holly

Wet mangled flakes

Sprinkles. Temp dropped from 42 to 39

Flurries in ashburn, 41

Gotcha, thanks. Good to know it wasn't intended for scrutiny

They seem to think that CAD holds strong and keeps mixed precip to the south of DCA